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Nigeria’s intra-Africa trade increased by 40.8% to N1.84 trillion

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Nigeria’s trade with the rest of Africa increased from N1.306 trillion in 2022 to N1.839 trillion in the first half of 2023.

The increase represents a 40.8 percent Year-on-Year (YoY) in the first half of 2023, a reversal in the declining trend of the nation’s intra-African trade over the same period since 2020, in terms of value.

According ro the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Nigeria’s intra-African trade in H1’21 amounted to N1.47 trillion out of total foreign trade of N21.79 trillion; and N1.67 trillion in H1’20 out of N14.55 trillion total foreign trade recorded within the period.

The NBS data on Nigeria’s external trade with the rest of Africa also indicates that the intra-Africa trade is gaining more ground against total foreign trade recorded by the country in the past three years.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria’s intra-African trade totalled N1.47 trillion in H1’21 and N1.67 trillion in H1’20 out of the total international trade recorded during those period, which was N14.55 trillion.

The NBS statistics on Nigeria’s external trade data with the rest of Africa also shows that intra-African trade is growing faster than overall international trade recorded by the nation during the previous three years.

The N1.839 trillion recorded in H1’23 represents 7.42 percent of the total foreign trade of N24.789 trillion recorded in the period.

Comparatively, the N1.306 trillion recorded in H1’22 represented 5.05 percent of the N25.843 trillion total foreign trade during that time; the N1.47 trillion recorded in H1’21 represented 6.75 percent of the N21.79 trillion total foreign trade during that time; and the N1.67 trillion recorded in H1’20 represented 11.48 percent of the N14.55 trillion total foreign trade during that time.

About 7.42% of the N24.789 trillion in total foreign trade that was registered throughout the period, or N1.839 trillion, was transacted during H1’23.

Africa’s GDP and its internal trade expanded fourfold over the past two decades, according to the report, which suggests that that intra-African trade is more resilient than exchanges with other regions of the world,

Africa’s trade and regional integration face several obstacles. Transportation and communication infrastructure for intra-African trade is less developed than those that connect Africa to the rest of the world.

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion multi-sector investments from AfDB— Official

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion from the African Development Bank (AfDB), comprising $4.9 billion in public and private sector initiatives.

AfDB Director-General of the West Africa Region, Lamin Barrow, said the bank’s Nigeria funding approvals total $10.9 billion since it started operations.

Barrow made the revelation at the Second Interactive Session and Workshop on Developing Bankable Business Proposals/Business Plans for Youths in Agriculture in Abuja on Monday.

It was part of the bank’s 60th anniversary celebrations with stakeholders. Nigeria is the AfDB’s largest shareholder, and the bank’s relationship with it has grown, Barrow said.

The AfDB invests in Nigeria’s energy, power, transport, water, and sanitation infrastructure.

“Over the last 60 years, the Bank has grown into a trusted partner and the continent’s premier development financial institution.

“Our cooperation with Nigeria has expanded over the years, especially considering that Nigeria is the largest shareholder.

“Since it started operations in the country, cumulative financing approvals have reached 10.9 billion dollars and our portfolio currently stands at 4.9 billion dollars supporting projects in the public and private sectors,” he said.

After taking office eight years ago, AfDB President Dr Akinwumi Adesina prioritized the High 5—Power, Feed, Industrialize, Integrate, and Improve Africa’s quality of life—Barrow added. He said these were accelerators for achieving the SDGs and Agenda 2063 ambitions. The projects and programs supported during this time have reportedly affected over 400 million individuals.

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Analysts expect Egypt’s economy to rise 4.0% in 2024/25

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A recent study that sampled seventeen economists by Reuters has predicted slower economic growth for Egypt in April after a $8 billion IMF accord in March.

The median projection for GDP growth in the fiscal year starting July 1 was 4%, down from 4.35% in April and 4.15% in January.

The poll predicted the GDP grew 2.9% in the fiscal year ending June 30. This is below their April and January predictions of 3% and 3.5%. Poll: 2025/26 growth should rise to 4.99%.

After the IMF agreement, Capital Economics’ James Swanston predicted slower growth due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and a weaker pound.

“The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year, but there are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY2025/26 onward,” Swanston said.

Egyptian tourism and Suez Canal revenue have slowed due to the Gaza crisis, which has cut Egypt’s foreign revenue by more than half.

Egypt’s planning ministry predicted 4.2% growth in 2024/25 on June 2. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to fall to 49.50 per dollar by June 2025 and 52.50 by June 2026.

Before dropping it in March 2024, the central bank kept the pound at 30.85 per dollar. It’s roughly 48.40 per dollar.

The survey forecast 20.5% headline inflation in 2024/25 and 12.05% in 2025/26. In June, inflation dropped to 27.5% from a record high of 38.0% in September, exceeding the central bank’s objective of 5%-9%.

The analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to drop to 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

Foreign money shortages have slowed the Egyptian economy. However, a $24 billion real estate transaction with the UAE in late February, a significant currency devaluation, and a $8 billion IMF accord in early March have mitigated that.

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