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An ‘expert’s’ view on how Tanzania and Kenya escaped putschs in the ‘Coup Age’ By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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On July 26, there was a military coup in Niger. It was the fifth coup in Sahel West Africa in three years, the others having been in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad.

Now, everyone is talking about the West African Coup Belt and the Sahel Coup Zone, and other names. Some people are going as far as claiming that there is a return to the age of coups in Africa.

In some East African countries, citizens frustrated with the state of affairs, are praying for coups. So far, thankfully, the gods haven’t heard their prayers.

There has been no successful coup in the East African Community zone for 30 years, the last failed bid being by Maj-Gen Godefroid Niyombare in Burundi in May 2015. But the most remarkable thing about the EAC is that two countries, Kenya and Tanzania, survived the 1960s to 1980s coup epidemics.

Many clever men and women have wrestled with this apparent Kenyan and Tanzanian immunity to coups, and the question remains unresolved. I again asked a few East African experts and elders for an explanation and decided to create a composite of their most outside-the-box answers, in the voice of Abdul, that famous characters from our old East African English textbooks.

COO: We are seeing coups in Sahel West Africa but, so far, none in East Africa. None in Southern Africa too, we must add. But let us stay with our East Africa, would you say East Africa is beyond coups?

Abdul: Definitely not, but the risks are very low except in three EAC member states.

COO: Which three?

Ask me in five years, right now I still have to eat, so I won’t specify.

Fair enough. However, it is noteworthy that in a period in Africa where we had coups almost everywhere, there were no successful ones in Kenya and Tanzania. What makes those two countries special?

Tanzania and Kenya had major anti-colonial wars; the Maji Maji Rebellion against the Germans between 1905 and 1907, in which between 75,000 and 300,000 people died; and in Kenya, the Mau Mau uprising between 1952 and 1960 against British colonialists, with between 12,000 and 15,000 people killed. It’s possible these countries got weary of violent political contestation, which made the ground sterile for coups.

But wait a minute, in Uganda Kings Kabelega and Muwanga also fought a resistance war against the British, but Uganda had coups.

The Maji Maji and Mau Mau rebellions were from the bottom up. The Kabalega-Muwanga wars were from the top. Some of us in East Africa don’t understand you Ugandans and your kings.

Okay, but the Algerian war of independence against the French was deadlier than the Maji Maji and Mau Mau combined, with anything up to 1.5 million deaths. Yet, in 1965 Colonel Houari Boumédiène overthrew Algeria’s first President Ahmed Ben Bella.

True, which tells us other factors beyond a history of a bitter anticolonial struggle are at play. One of them is what people eat. Kenya and Tanzania are coastal nations which eat ugali. People in the East and Central African hinterland never used to eat “posho,” as they called it, and even despised it. People in the hinterland eat directly off their gardens. The coastal people buy their staple from the shops.

How does that factor into coups?

It means the cost of entry for a coup-maker is low in the East African hinterland. In the ugali-eating countries, the soldiers have to wonder about the cost and availability of maize flour. Maize flour is complicated. It seems that discourages them. That might explain why the leader of Kenya’s short-lived 1982 coup, Hezekiah Ochuka, was from the Kisumu lakeside. They are fish people, those ones.

You might have a point there, because the ugali (mealie)-eating countries of Southern Africa like Malawi and Zambia also escaped coups.

However, in northern Africa, Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia, where wheat flour for bread is more centrally organised than maize flour, had coups. And in Morocco, they haven’t.

True, I expected you would say that. Which is why it’s important to note another factor: Kiswahili. In countries where Kiswahili was the national or official language, there was never a coup. The sample is small, yes, but the East African hinterland came very late to Kiswahili. If they had adopted it earlier, they would have had happier political lives.

How does that work?

Because of the broad forces from which Kiswahili emerged, it is not the language of a particular dominant ethnic or national group, and therefore brings a culturally neutral conversation to national politics in diverse countries. Perhaps that keeps the sharp edge that motivates coup makers out of the mainstream. But I think the real anticoup balm in Kiswahili is its related Taraab mu-sic. Taraab, which originated in Zanzibar in the mid-1800s, is a uniquely East African coastal music form, and it has not percolated into the East African hinterland much, beyond the small traveller trading communities.

Explain. Can music impact politics that much?

Taraab is a slow, contemplative music. But most-ly, it is poetry, and serenades. It has a soporific effect, which is why East African coastal communities are largely calm. The greedy capitalists in East Africa consider coastal communities lazy. It is a serious misunderstanding. In Kenya and Tanzania, Taraab has seeped into the national consciousness and calmed political temperatures. This is most evident in Tanzania.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the «Wall of Great Africans». Twitter@cobbo3

Strictly Personal

If I were put in charge of a $15m African kitty, I’d first deworm children, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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One of my favourite stories on pan-African action (or in this case inaction), one I will never tire of repeating, comes from 2002, when the discredited Organisation of African Unity, was rebranded into an ambitious, new African Union (AU).

There were many big hitters in African statehouses then. Talking of those who have had the grace to step down or leave honourably after electoral or political defeat, or have departed, in Nigeria we had Olusegun Obasanjo, a force of nature. Cerebral and studious Thabo Mbeki was chief in South Africa. In Ethiopia, the brass-knuckled and searingly intellectual Meles Zenawi ruled the roost.

In Tanzania, there was the personable and thoughtful Ben Mkapa. In Botswana, there was Festus Mogae, a leader who had a way of bringing out the best in people. In Senegal, we had Abdoulaye Wade, fresh in office, and years before he went rogue.

And those are just a few.

This club of men (there were no women at the high table) brought forth the AU. At that time, there was a lot of frustration about the portrayal of Africa in international media, we decided we must “tell our own story” to the world. The AU, therefore, decided to boost the struggling Pan-African New Agency (Pana) network.

The members were asked to write cheques or pledges for it. There were millions of dollars offered by the South Africans and Nigerians of our continent. Then, as at every party, a disruptive guest made a play. Rwanda, then still roiled by the genocide against the Tutsi of 1994, offered the least money; a few tens of thousand dollars.

There were embarrassed looks all around. Some probably thought it should just have kept is mouth shut, and not made a fool of itself with its ka-money. Kigali sat unflustered. Maybe it knew something the rest didn’t.

The meeting ended, and everyone went their merry way. Pana sat and waited for the cheques to come. The big talkers didn’t walk the talk. Hardly any came, and in the sums that were pledged. Except one. The cheque from Rwanda came in the exact amount it was promised. The smallest pledge became Pana’s biggest payday.

The joke is that it was used to pay terminal benefits for Pana staff. They would have gone home empty-pocketed.

We revive this peculiarly African moment (many a deep-pocketed African will happily contribute $300 to your wedding but not 50 cents to build a school or set up a scholarship fund), to campaign for the creation of small and beautiful African things.

It was brought on by the announcement by South Korea that it had joined the African Summit bandwagon, and is shortly hosting a South Korea-Africa Summit — like the US, China, the UK, the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey do.

Apart from the AU, whose summits are in danger of turning into dubious talk shops, outside of limited regional bloc events, there is no Pan-African platform that brings the continent’s leaders together.

The AU summits are not a solutions enterprise, partly because over 60 percent of its budget is funded by non-African development partners. You can’t seriously say you are going to set up a $500 million African climate crisis fund in the hope that some Europeans will put up the money.

It’s possible to reprise the Rwanda-Pana pledge episode; a convention of African leaders and important institutions on the continent for a “Small Initiatives, Big Impact Compact”. It would be a barebones summit. In the first one, leaders would come to kickstart it by investing seed money.

The rule would be that no country would be allowed to put up more than $100,000 — far, far less than it costs some presidents and their delegations to attend one day of an AU summit.

There would also be no pledges. Everyone would come with a certified cheque that cannot bounce, or hard cash in a bag. After all, some of our leaders are no strangers to travelling around with sacks from which they hand out cash like they were sweets.

If 54 states (we will exempt the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic for special circumstances) contribute $75,000 each, that is a good $4.05 million.

If just 200 of the bigger pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank, Afrexim Bank, the giant companies such as MTN, Safaricom, East African Breweries, Nedbank, De Beers, Dangote, Orascom in Egypt, Attijariwafa Bank in Morocco, to name a few, each ponied up $75,000 each, that’s a cool $15 million just for the first year alone.

There will be a lot of imagination necessary to create magic out of it all, no doubt, but if I were asked to manage the project, I would immediately offer one small, beautiful thing to do.

After putting aside money for reasonable expenses to be paid at the end (a man has to eat) — which would be posted on a public website like all other expenditures — I would set out on a programme to get the most needy African children a dose of deworming tablets. Would do it all over for a couple of years.

Impact? Big. I read that people who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experience an increase of 14 percent in consumption expenditure, 13 percent in hourly earnings, and nine percent in non-agricultural work hours.

At the next convention, I would report back, and possibly dazzle with the names, and photographs, of all the children who got the treatment. Other than the shopping opportunity, the US-Africa Summit would have nothing on that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3

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Strictly Personal

AU shouldn’t look on as outsiders treat Africa like a widow’s house, By Joachim Buwembo

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There is no shortage of news from the UK, a major former colonial master in Africa, over whose former empire the sun reputedly never set. We hope and pray that besides watching the Premier League, the managers of our economies are also monitoring the re-nationalisation of British Railways (BR).

 

Three decades after BR was privatised in the early to mid-nineties — around the season when Africa was hit by the privatisation fashion — there is emerging consensus by both conservative and liberal parties that it is time the major public transport system reverts to state management.

 

Yes, there are major services that should be rendered by the state, and the public must not be abandoned to the vagaries of purely profit-motivated capitalism. It is not enough to only argue that government is not good at doing business, because some business is government business.

 

Since we copied many of our systems from the British — including wigs for judges — we may as well copy the humility to accept if certain fashions don’t work.

 

Another piece of news from the UK, besides football, was of this conservative MP Tim Loughton, who caused a stir by getting summarily deported from Djibouti and claiming the small African country was just doing China’s bidding because he recently rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

 

China has dismissed the accusation as baseless, and Africa still respects China for not meddling in its politics, even as it negotiates economic partnerships. China generously co-funded the construction of Djibouti’s super modern multipurpose port.

 

What can African leaders learn from the Loughton Djibouti kerfuffle? The race to think for and manage Africa by outsiders is still on and attracting new players.

 

While China has described the Loughton accusation as lies, it shows that the accusing (and presumably informed) Britons suspect other powerful countries to be on a quest to influence African thinking and actions.

 

And while the new bidders for Africa’s resources are on the increase including Russia, the US, Middle Eastern newly rich states, and India, even declining powers like France, which is losing ground in West Africa, could be looking for weaker states to gain a new foothold.

 

My Ugandan people describe such a situation as treating a community like “like a widow’s house,” because the poor, defenceless woman is susceptible to having her door kicked open by any local bully. Yes, these small and weak countries are not insignificant and offer fertile ground for the indirect re-colonisation of the continent.

 

Djibouti, for example, may be small —at only 23,000square kilometres, with a population of one million doing hardly any farming, thus relying on imports for most of its food — but it is so strategically located that the African Union should look at it as precious territory that must be protected from external political influences.

 

It commands the southern entrance into the Red Sea, thus linking Africa to the Middle East. So if several foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti, why shouldn’t the AU, with its growing “peace kitty,” now be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars?

 

At a bilateral level, Ethiopia and Djibouti are doing impressively well in developing infrastructure such as the railway link, a whole 750 kilometres of it electrified. The AU should be looking at more such projects linking up the whole continent to increase internal trade with the continental market, the fastest growing in the world.

 

And, while at it, the AU should be resolutely pushing out fossil-fuel-based transportation the way Ethiopia is doing, without even making much noise about it. Ethiopia can be quite resolute in conceiving and implementing projects, and surely the AU, being headquartered in Addis Ababa, should be taking a leaf rather than looking on as external interests treat the continent like a Ugandan widow’s house.

 

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:buwembo@gmail.com

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