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Political federation, when it occurs, will be through an East African military union, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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Kenya has restarted internal consultations on the East African political federation, a pet project of leaders like Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, that many people like to discuss because they don’t plan to do anything about it.

There is a twist to it this time. During its stakeholder’s consultation launch, Kenya’s East African Community Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Miano said they are targeting a confederation and hoping that the EAC can start with that and then move on to a federation.

It is like you are in Nairobi and want to drive to Kampala. However, instead of heading there through either Busia or Malaba, you go via the Tanzania-Kenya border of Namanga, drive down to Dar es Salaam, then up to Dodoma, Tabora, Mwanza, the Uganda-Tanzania border of Mutukula, on to Mbarara, Masaka, and eventually Kampala.

You will still get to Kampala, but you will be worse for wear and tear, have spent many long days on the road, and need to buy a new back. The dictionary tells us that a confederation is a political arrangement where the federal government (the EAC) is accountable to the member states (DRC, Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) who are the ultimate authority – i.e., a slight upgrade of the current situation.

The federal government holds the ultimate power in a federation, and the member states will be subordinate to it. The presidents would be like Kenya’s County Governors in the country’s devolved system, and the First Big Man/Woman will be sitting in Arusha.

Many forces have hobbled the East African Federation. There is a widespread belief that President Museveni, its most vocal supporter at the State House level, wants it for himself as a retirement gift. He would take over the job as the EAC Federation president after he’s done his 45 years in Uganda’s State House. In Kenya, especially, that terrifies too many people. It’s likely that other East African capitals, too, are waiting for a post-Museveni Uganda to emerge before they can jump seriously on the federation wagon.

But it’s mostly the national capitalists, the political class, and land nativists who are afraid of a political federation, much the same way some of them have been lukewarm to the current EAC project. They fear losing their national monopolies to other competitors and the privileges and power that border and customs controls, immigration, and local rents provide. And, in Tanzania, a deep suspicion about other East Africans being hungry wolves waiting to steal its vast lands still runs high.

Easier path

Miano, however, mentioned something that might provide an easier path to an East African federation. She said, “We now have in place the Customs Union Protocol, the EAC Common Market Protocol and the Monetary Union Protocol” (the monetary union has been problematic with countries haggling over the hosting of a regional central bank, The EastAfrican helpfully noted).

“Besides the scaffolding of our political federation, we have made significant progress in our shared economic and sociocultural cooperation and productive and services sectors, and more recently, we have enhanced cooperation in defence and interstate security,” said Miano.

The East African political federation has probably already started as a military union. An evolving “East African NATO”. East Africa has the Eastern Africa Standby Force, a regional military organisation whose job is to ensure peace and security in the Eastern African region. It is one of the five regional Forces of the African Standby Force (ASF).

East Africans have always found it easier to soldier things together – like the now-all but doomed East Africa Response Force (EARF) to eastern DRC. By contrast, you cannot get East African bankers to agree on anything, and Ugandan eggs and powdered milk tend to bring out a lot of opposition from Kenyan officialdom. If you put East African customs and tax chiefs in a room and leave them to discuss dissolving and forming a single revenue authority, you will return to find only dead bodies on the floor.

Yet, anyone who visited the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) in the tough old days as it broke al Shabaab’s back in Mogadishu, and before it was recently rebaptised the AU Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), would have been struck by the camaraderie of the Ugandan, Burundian, and Kenyan officers and troops in their vast headquarters compound. For but the national flags on their uniforms, a non-East African couldn’t tell them apart. Amisom was essentially an East African military project.

In South Sudan, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) intervened in December 2013 to save President Salva Kiir’s bacon and is still the invisible hand behind his throne. On the UN peacekeeping side, Rwanda has been a defining force. East African armies have also rubbed shoulders for long in the much-maligned UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC, Monusco.

Joint soldiering is probably easier because there is no money lost. No Kenyan hotel manager is taking a Ugandan’s job in Kampala, or Ugandan farm produce outcompeting Kenya’s in Nairobi markets.

It might be a good idea to use Somalia as a guinea pig. Admit it into the EAC, but it joins with the Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya elements of ATMIS as its national army. Then in DRC, disarm all militias, and turn EAC forces into the national army. This arrangement will also help advance free and democratic societies in the region. A soldier who isn’t, to use the trope, “from a rival tribe,” is less likely to oppress you.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the «Wall of Great Africans». Twitter@cobbo3

Strictly Personal

All eyes in Africa are on Kenya’s bid for a reset, By Joachim Buwembo

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Whoever impregnated Angela Rayner and caused her to drop out of school at the tender age of 16 with no qualifications might be disappointed that we aren’t asking who her baba mtoto (child’s father) is; whether he became a president, king or a vagabond somewhere, since the girl ‘whose leg he broke’ is now UK’s second most powerful person, 28 years since he ‘stole her goat’.

Angela’s rise to such heights after the adversity should be a lesson to countries which, six decades after independence, still have millions of citizens wallowing in poverty and denied basic human dignity, while the elite shamelessly flaunt obscene luxury on their hungry, twisted faces.

After independence, African countries also suffered their adolescent setbacks in the form of military coups. Uganda’s military rule lasted eight years, Kenya’s about eight hours on August 1, 1982, while Tanzania’s didn’t materialise and its first defence chief became an ambassador somewhere.

What we learn from Angela Rayner is that when you’re derailed, it doesn’t matter who derailed you, because nobody wants to know. What matters is that you pick yourself up, not just to march on, but to stand up and shine.To incessantly blame our colonial and slave-trading ‘derailers’ while we treat our fellow citizens worse than the colonialists did only invites the world to laugh. Have you ever read of a colonial officer demanding a bribe from a local before providing the service due?

African countries today need to press ‘reset’. A state operates by written policies, plans, strategies and prescribed penalties with gazetted prisons for those who break the rules.  This is far more power than teenage Angela had, so a reset state should take less time to become prosperous than the 28 years it took her to get to the top after derailing.

So it’s realistic for countries to operate on five-year planning and electoral cycles, so a state that fails to implement a programme in five years has something wrong with it. It needs a reset.

A basic reset course for African leaders and economists should include:

1. Mindset change: Albert Einstein teaches us that no problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. For example, if you are in debt, seeking or accepting more debt is using the same level of thinking that put you there. If you don’t like Einstein’s genius, you can even try an animal in the bush that falls into a hole and stops digging. Our economists are certainly better than a beast in the bush.

2. Stealing is wrong: African leaders and civil servants need to revisit their catechism or madarasa – stealing public resources is as immoral as rape.

3. Justifying wrong doesn’t make it right: Using legalese and putting sinful benefits in the budget is immoral and can incite the deprived to destroy everything.

4. Take inventory of your resources and plan to use them: If Kenya, for example, has a railway line running from Mombasa to Nairobi, is it prudent to borrow $3.6 billion to build a highway parallel to it before paying off and electrifying the railway?

If Uganda is groaning under a $2 billion annual petrol import bill, does it make sense to beg Kenya for access to import more fuel, when Kampala is already manufacturing and marketing electric buses, while failing to use hundreds of megawatts it generates, yet the country has to pay for the unused power?

If Tanzania… okay, TZ has entered the 21st Century with its electric trains soon to be operating between Dar es Salaam and Morogoro. Ethiopia, too, has connected Addis Ababa to the port of Djibouti with a 753-kilometre electric railway,  and moves hundreds of thousands of passengers in Addis every day by electric train.

5. Protect the environment: We don’t own it, we borrowed it from our parents to preserve it for our children. Who doesn’t know that the future of the planet is at stake?

6. Do monitoring and evaluation: Otherwise you may keep doing the same thing that does not work and hope for better results, as a sage defined lunacy.

7. Don’t blame the victims of your incompetence: This is basic fairness.

We could go on, but how boring! Who doesn’t know these mundane points? We are not holding our breath for Angela’s performance, because if she fails, she will be easily replaced. Africa’s eyes should now be on Kenya to see how they manage an abrupt change without the mass bloodshed that often accompanies revolutions.

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Strictly Personal

The post-budget crisis in Kenya might be good for Africa, after all, By Joachim Buwembo

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The surging crisis that is being witnessed in Kenya could end up being a good thing for Africa if the regional leaders could step back and examine the situation clinically with cool-headed interest. Maybe there is a hand of God in the whole affair. For, how do explain the flare not having started in harder-pressed countries such as Zambia, Mozambique and Ghana?

As fate would have it, it happened in East Africa, the region that is supposed to provide the next leadership of the African Union Commission, in a process that is about to start. And, what is the most serious crisis looming on Africa’s horizon? It is Debt of course.

Even the UN has warned the entire world that Africa’s debt situation is now a crisis. As at now, three or four countries are not facing debt trouble — and that is only for now.

There is one country, though, that is virtually debt-free, having just been freed from debt due to circumstances: Somalia. And it is the newest member of the East African Community. Somalia has recently had virtually all its foreign debt written off in recognition of the challenges it has been facing in nearly four decades.

Why is this important? Because debt is the choicest weapon of neocolonialists. There is no sweeter way to steal wealth than to have its owners deliver it to you, begging you, on all fours, to take it away from them, as you quietly thank the devil, who has impaired their judgement to think that you are their saviour.

So?

So, the economic integration Africa has embarked on will, over the next five or so years, go through are a make-or-break stage, and it must be led by a member that is debt-free. For, there is no surer weapon to subjugate and control a society than through debt.

A government or a country’s political leadership can talk tough and big until their creditor whispers something then the lion suddenly becomes a sheep. Positions agreed on earlier with comrades are sheepishly abandoned. Scheduled official trips get inexplicably cancelled.

Debt is that bad. In African capitals, presidents have received calls from Washington, Paris or London to cancel trips and they did, so because of debt vulnerability.

In our villages, men have lost wives to guys they hate most because of debt. At the state level, governments have lost command over their own institutions because of debt. The management of Africa’s economic transition, as may be agreed upon jointly by the continental leaders, needs to be implemented by a member without crippling foreign debt so they do not get instructions from elsewhere.

The other related threat to African states is armed conflict, often internal and not interstate. Somalia has been going through this for decades and it is to the credit of African intervention that statehood was restored to the country.

This is the biggest prize Africa has won since it defeated colonialism in (mostly) the 1960s decade. The product is the new Somalia and, to restore all other countries’ hope, the newly restored state should play a lead role in spreading stability and confidence across Africa.

One day, South Sudan, too, should qualify to play a lead role on the continent.

What has been happening in Kenya can happen in any other African country. And it can be worse. We have seen once promising countries with strong economies and armies, such as Libya, being ravaged into near-Stone Age in a very short time. Angry, youthful energy can be destructive, and opportunistic neocolonialists can make it inadvertently facilitate their intentions.

Containing prolonged or repetitive civil uprisings can be economically draining, both directly in deploying security forces and also by paralysing economic activity.

African countries also need to become one another’s economic insurance. By jointly managing trade routes with their transport infrastructure, energy sources and electricity distribution grids, and generally pursuing coordinated industrialisation strategies in observance of regional and national comparative advantages, they will sooner than later reduce insecurity, even as the borders remain porous.

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