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Who is the next president? By Lasisi Olagunju

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“Someone who should know told me that our next president has not declared yet; that all those who have so far declared won’t be president.” I call him my mystery friend from the north. I have never met him. He comes around into my social media handles like a thief in the night, he drops his very few words as private messages and disappears. On Saturday, he came again with the first sentence of this piece. My response to him was that I suspected so. He didn’t ask me why I did. But I followed up to ask him if he thought what we had was a democracy. He answered no; otherwise, some people somewhere won’t be Nigeria’s real electors who choose for us before our election days. They are presently playing the game the old effective way. They are breaking ‘declared’ heads with coconut shells. They have set the parties on fire. INEC gave political parties from Wednesday, April 6 to Friday, June 3 to conduct their primaries and settle all disputes therefrom. That deadline is 46 days away from today, but the political parties we have are not ready; they are sick, down with epileptic fits, fighting civil and internecine wars. The Lagos content of the APC has particularly been noxious in its fratricidal feud.
When a journey portends evil, the Yoruba call it Igbo Odaju; its direct English translation is forest of the heartless. Elders always warn girls without fathers and boys without mothers not to take that route. If such boys and girls are already on that road to peril, they are told to go back home. What is rumbling the jungles of Lagos APC is a war of witches, they know what they ate which has now inflated their bellies. Let no ordinary person go by their ringside to watch and speculate. I am an orphan, I have no father, I have no mother; may I never be found getting involved in that family affair. I hope the sick taking sides in this coven fight know the implications. It promises not to end in praise. I also hope such people know what I know: that a fish with a closed mouth fears no hook and never gets caught. Family members fighting over who takes the bedchamber of the charmer are particularly taking a dangerous gamble. Skulls will be cracked, limbs will be lost. You already heard the father declaring not having a son. And like Elesin Oba’s Olunde in Soyinka’s ‘Death and the King’s Horseman’, the son too may soon post a disclaimer: “I have no father, eater of leftovers.”
The frenzy we feel is like bandits struggling over the spoils of their felony. The world of crime bears very uncanny resemblance to what you are seeing playing out in the politics of your country. A criminal enterprise. That is what many call our parties and their governments. Criminal enterprises have structures and there are hierarchies in there. Crime mirrors politics as literature reflects life. Professor Akinwumi Isola did a review of crime in Oladejo Okediji’s detective novel, Agbalagba Akan. I refer to his ‘The Modern Yoruba Novel: An Analysis of the writers art.’ He writes on page 140: “The criminals are known and feared. But they still operate in the society using a network of services. Theirs is a syndicate with active branches in the neighbouring towns. Olori Aye is the chief of them all. He resides at Ibadan. Oyeniyi Seriki is the deputy at Egbeda; Lamidi Olojooro controls Lalupon; Adegun directs operations at Origbo. Olori Aye (alias Doogo) has the last say in everything. He does not consult anyone on any point, he gives out orders that must be obeyed. Each time he says something he adds ‘Mo pa a lase ni o (it’s an order).'” That is the geo-politics of crime according to literature. At every level of our politics, you see each of the characters mentioned above. There is always an Olori Aye (supreme head of the world) calling the shots, directing the affairs using able lieutenants like Olojooro (the fraudulent) as ruthless foot soldiers. Think deep and look around; they are here.
But is this how we will continue? Swift-legged hare once found himself among flesh-eating beasts of the jungle. How did he come back home in one piece? He said he hung out with the big cats with ogbon inu (inner wisdom) and escaped with opolopo imo (a lot of understanding). Those are what we need to survive this season of war without help. Don’t you find it curious that as terrorists kill, maim and abduct, and relations of victims wail and beg our government to please be government, what concerns the regime is completely different? It is not even the next election. That one is settled. What remains to be done must be done. The government decreed last week that very early next year there would be census, the sum of the Nigerian people. There are millions hiding in diseased forests either as terrorists or as victims of terrorism. Will they be counted too? What better way to rupture the vessels of the system than having census and elections lumped together right in the middle of a war? So, I beg you, stop praying to these gods for protection, they assault their own temples with poisoned offerings.
The Nigerian presidency has a synonym, it is death. It is a repository of what a poet calls “the seven things of price.” It has gold; it has silver, pearl and coral; it has catseye, ruby and diamond. That is why people kill persons and characters and good manners to get into the vault. Daily I watch ambitious southern Nigerians seeking to be president of Nigeria. You cannot say you know how many they are. Even they themselves know not their number. As the list lengthens daily, so is the acrimony that attends their politics. The many from the south fight dirty; the four or five from the north form a Man United team stalking the riotous south, seeking holes to sink their goals into. Where brothers fight to the death, strangers inherit their father’s property. It is not only unthinking siblings who suffer this fate. Friends, associates deliver one another to the enemy whenever they think only of themselves. And, here, I consult the Greek, Aesop, classical master of ageless tales.
Aesop wrote his very many tales long before the sun and the moon were born. There is the one he entitled: “The Ass, the Fox and the Lion.” It is the tale of Ass and Fox, comrades who moved together daily, shoulder to shoulder, and lived on the generous carelessness of their society. Aesop says Ass regularly fed from cropped fresh bits of greens while Fox derived his nutrients from devouring chickens from a neighboring farmyard. Fox also filched cheese from the dairy next door. Aesop continues and says: one day, the pair unexpectedly walked into a Lion. The Ass was very much frightened, but the Fox calmed his fears. “I will talk to him,” Fox told Ass.
So the Fox walked boldly up to the Lion. “Your highness,” he said in an undertone, so the Ass could not hear him, “I’ve got a fine scheme in my head. If you promise not to hurt me, I will lead that foolish creature yonder into a pit where he can’t get out, and you can feast at your pleasure.” The Lion agreed and the Fox returned to the Ass. “I made him promise not to hurt us,” said the Fox. “But come, I know a good place to hide till he is gone.” So the Fox led the Ass into a deep pit. But when the Lion saw that the Ass was his for the taking, he first of all struck down Fox who thought he was smart and safe. The end of the comrades is the end of their tale.
There is also a grander story from father of English poetry, Geoffrey Chaucer in his magnum opus, The Canterbury Tales. It is the story of three riotous fellows “who lived for gaming, eating, drinking, and merrymaking.” They set out one day to kill Death because Death killed their friends. Chaucer writes: “…One of the drinkers then swore an oath on God’s sacred bones that he would seek Death out. ‘Listen, friends, we three have always been as one. Let each of us now hold up his hand and swear an oath of brotherhood. Together we will slay this traitor Death!’ And thus with a blasphemous curse, they swore to live and die for one another and together to seek out and challenge Death before the next nightfall. In a drunken rage, they set forth…swearing grisly oaths as they went.”
How did they end their story? Instead of meeting Death, it was fortune that met them. Chaucer continues: “They found a pile of golden florins, well nigh onto eight bushels of them, they thought. The sight of all the bright and beautiful florins quickly caused them to abandon their search for Death, and their thoughts turned to how they might best protect their newly found treasure. The worst of them spoke the first word, ‘Brothers,’ he said, ‘Fortune has given us this great treasure, but if we carry it home by light of day, people will call us thieves, and our own treasure will send us to the gallows. We must take it home by night, and then with utmost prudence and caution. Let us draw lots to see which one of us should run to town and secretly bring back bread and wine. The other two will stay here and guard the treasure. Then in the night we will carry the treasure to wherever we think is best.'” The lot fell to the youngest, and he immediately departed for the town. The two behind plotted to kill the one who left so that they could have enough of the treasures. The one who left thought through his plot too to kill the two so all the treasures would be his. Both sides succeeded in their plots. The youngest came back with food and drinks and the two ran their daggers through his back. “They killed him, just as they had planned, and when the deed was done, one of them said, ‘Now let us sit and drink and make merry. Afterward we will bury his body.’ And while still talking, he drank from the poisoned bottle, and his friend drank as well, and thus the two of them died.” End of story. Now, the question is: Who inherited their treasure?
Who is Nigeria’s next president? That is the only question worth asking now. The next president is not among those killing one another before the day of battle. That is what my northern friend said. Except history sloughs off its skin, my friend will be right. No one who demanded the presidency of Nigeria has ever got it. Let’s look at history starting from 1999: Olusegun Obasanjo was drafted into the race; he drafted Umaru YarAdua into the race; death installed Goodluck Jonathan; Muhammadu Buhari got it only after he announced he was quitting politics. The system brought him back, cleansed him of the curse of perpetual inelectability and put him on the throne. Everyone knows unreadable Buhari is scheming to do what Obasanjo did in 2007. We wait to see how far he can go with his plans – outside the power court (and cult). When an elder loses what Teresa Washington describes as “control, composure, and reticence,” he loses his place at the pinnacle where spirits hold court. The choice has never been Nigerians’. The owners of Nigeria always take charge at the appropriate time and level. They always give us their choice to elect. We pay the price, they take the bride. Meanwhile, let the feuding old birds in Lagos APC continue their flight of death. It is their last rite, their last flight.

Strictly Personal

For EAC states to excel, members should hire expatriate ministers, By Joachim Buwembo

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Next week, the East African Community, especially the original three members Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, will be marking their revival Silver Jubilee, which is also an opportunity to reflect on 25 years after the passing of regional integration icon Mwalimu Julius Nyerere.

The integrationist and pro-federation Mwalimu would certainly be happy with the revival of the EAC. But how contented humanist Nyerere who committed his then poor country’s resources and lives to the emancipation of fellow Africans would be with the goings on in the region, can only be debated.

Hundreds of Tanzanian men and women at Nyerere’s command gave their lives so Ugandans would be saved from a dictatorship that attached low value to human life and “disappeared” political dissenters, with a few whose bodies were found having been disfigured sometimes with acid. In Kenya, extra-judicial executions of high-profile political dissenters were also being carried albeit with more sophistication than Uganda’s.

Should some people in Tanzania start derailing that lovely country backwards to catch up with the murderous Uganda and Kenya of the 1970s and criminalise the holding of different political views, then we would beg the EAC to find its manhood and insist that members start hiring expatriate ministers to man certain portfolios thus: For Justice and Law, expatriate ministers from the Scandinavian states would be preferable. But of course, beneficiaries of injustice and illegality would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so to hell with protection of human lives.

For promotion of Trade and Tourism, expatriates from the United Arab Emirates would fit the bill. But of course, beneficiaries of poaching, smuggling and tax evasion would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so to hell with expansion of trade and tourism.

For Industry, Indian expatriate ministers would do well to drive import substitution while creating millions of jobs in the region. But of course, beneficiaries of raw materials exportation and importation of consumer goods would oppose and argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so, to hell with the unemployed, human health and environmental protection.

For Finance and Economic Planning, Singaporean expatriate ministers would be appropriate, but of course beneficiaries of grand corruption and incompetence would argue passionately that ours are independent states; so let the taxes be stolen so the awful service delivery gets even worse while debilitating debts mount.

For Transport Infrastructure, expatriate ministers from the Netherlands would be suitable because integrated systems of air, rail, road and water were needed by yesterday, so that transport ceases being an obstacle and becomes an enabler of development instead.

But of course, beneficiaries dominant, inefficient transport modes will argue that we are independent, sovereign states; so let primitive transport systems and fragmented airspaces remain and keep the cost of living and doing business up.

For Energy, Japanese expatriate ministers would do the job to speedily guide our economies through the energy transition, and transfer technology like Chinese have done in Uganda to create local capacity to make electric vehicles.

But to drastically reduce reliance on fossil fuels some countries should consider hiring Ethiopian expatriate ministers who will know best how to say enough is enough, switch from internal combustion engines to electric.

US expatriate ministers can also be considered to help the adaptation of our aviation sectors to sustainable biofuel in addition to driving the processing of rare earth minerals into e-mobility batteries.

But profiteers from the poisoned fossil fuels would say we are independent and sovereign; so let fuel import bills remain high and the peoples’ health be damaged.

The all-important Education sector should without doubt be entrusted to expatriate ministers from Finland for wholesome development of our children.

But of course, the beneficiaries of the extortionist private schools and the cripplingly looted public institutions would argue that these are sovereign independent states; so let the children continue getting mentally stunted and unemployable.

And in Health, of course, the expatriate ministers should be from Sweden, to ensure that everyone accesses adequate health services. Expectedly, beneficiaries of public funds to secure treatment abroad and those who benefit from stolen medical supplies would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so that the wanton deaths of children and mothers continue.

Give the Housing to expatriate Chinese ministers so we close the era of human beings living in pigsties. However, those who benefit from a disorganised, stunted housing sector would argue that we are independent sovereign states so the majority can continue living sub-humanly.

Joachim Buwembo is a Kampala based journalist. buwembo@gmail.com

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Strictly Personal

Tanzania, we need to talk, By Othman Masoud Othman

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The ACT-Wazalendo party has been closely following and monitoring political events in the United Republic of Tanzania which, if not attended to urgently, might lead our country into an abyss.

In the six years of the presidency of John Pombe Magufuli, the country suffered a lot. There were claims of narrowing of the democratic space, the right to assemble and the right to free speech.

After the death of President Magufuli and Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed power, there was a sign of hope. The public optimistically welcomed the 4Rs (Reconciliation, Rebuild, Reforms, Reunite). Several positive measures were taken, including the formation of a special task force, which involved members from political parties, academic institutions, the private sector, and civil society. The team came up with many measures to be undertaken: Reform of political parties and elections laws, and the enacting of a new constitution. The President went further to investigate the problems around the criminal justice system and how to solve them.

It is one year to the next general election expected in October 2025, but there is a lot of pessimism, as not enough measures have been taken as promised. Even though the Elections Act was reviewed and the Electoral Commission renamed the Independent Electoral Commission, there is a lot to be done, including writing a new constitution and implementing the proposed reforms to the criminal justice system.

recently, there have been cases of abductions and disappearances of some activists and politicians. The situation got tense after a leader of Chadema, Ali Mohamed Kibao, was abducted and later found dead. Chadema accused the government security forces of these events and called for independent investigations. President Samia also condemned the abductions and ordered investigations.

Chadema also called for peaceful protests, demanding accountability and the police banned the demonstrations.

These happenings are a sign of uncertainty towards the general election, starting with the civic elections expected next month.

We urge the Chadema to reconsider demonstrations in the country. Human rights abuses are not just morally wrong, they are short-sighted. Human rights are a sound investment. They build resilient and prosperous communities and strong institutions based on the rule of law.

We, as a party, believe that our country has people full of wisdom and religious leaders who can guide our country back to the right track.

We urge all sides of the political divide to cool down. We believe that all players have reasonable demands and the failure to listen to each other has led us where we are as a country.

We urge the government to quickly initiate dialogue involving political leaders, the police, religious leaders and other stakeholders in order to bring sanity back to our country.

Our party leaders are engaging in talks between the government and other political parties to find solutions. We urge all the citizens of Tanzania to be united on this to build a better future. we believe that this is the time to talk.

Othman Masoud Othman is the First Vice President of Zanzibar and National Chairperson, of ACT-Wazalendo.

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