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Nigeria and the lost opportunities by Sulaimon Olanrewaju

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Nigeria’s propensity for profligacy is legendary. It is this wastefulness, a by-product of corruption and incompetence, which has been responsible for the stunted development that has been the lot of our country.

The conception of the Ajaokuta Steel Complex in 1979 was hinged on two factors. The first was the understanding that the nation’s hope of industrialisation would be a mirage without a functional steel industry. The second was to make Nigeria one of the leading steel producing countries in the world and position it to earn revenue from it. So, the government of General Olusegun Obasanjo pursued the project with gusto and scheduled it for completion in 1986 at the cost of $650million. But 35 years after, and with over $5billion spent, the steel complex lies prostrate, though at a point it reached 99 per cent completion.

Embedded in the project is a thermal power plant with the capacity to generate 110 megawatts of electricity. But with the abandonment of the main project, the fate of the plant was already decided.

So, the non-completion of the Ajaokuta project did not only rob the country of the realisation of the industrialisation envisioned in 1979, and the expected revenue generation, it also denied the people of regular electricity supply. But beyond that, the neglect of the project has also been responsible for the depletion of our commonwealth as an estimated N4trillion was spent on the importation of steel between 1986 and 2020.

As saddening as these are, more depressing is the fact that the Russian company, which initially got the contract, TyajzPromExport (TPE), completed similar projects on schedule for many countries including China, South Korea and Brazil. So, the fault was not that of the company but ours.

But why should our leaders bother about the loss of additional revenue that the completion of the project would have meant since money flows ceaselessly from oil? With oil money readily available, who needs a steel project?

Also in 1979, the Federal Government, through the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Authority, established the Ikere Gorge Dam in Iseyin area of Oyo State to accomplish four things. One, generate 700 megawatts of electricity, two; supply potable water to Oke Ogun area of Oyo State, three; assist the farming population of the area with irrigation and four; create an environment for fishing business. The last two were meant to diversify the nation’s revenue sources.

Despite the humongous sums expended on construction and procurement, 42 years after, the project is a shadow of the dream that birthed it. Not a single watt of electricity has been generated by the dam, which covers 47 kilometres and is said to be the fourth largest in Africa, despite the acquisition of everything needed for it. At Ikere, the turbines which should have been generating electricity have been turned into local silos for conserving grains. Other associated activities are only carried out skeletally.

But nobody is raising any eyebrow over the waste since money from crude oil sales comes in regularly.

At Owode area of Ibadan, there is an expanse of land that runs into tens of acres. It was acquired by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the purpose of constructing a staff quarters. Known as CBN Housing Estate, tens of completed buildings contained therein have been abandoned for almost 20 years. It is said that the CBN embarked on erecting the multibillion naira estate to ease the housing problem of its staff but that after its completion, the staff shunned it because of the monetisation policy of the Obasanjo administration. The most galling part of the whole scenario is that the leadership of the apex bank had completely forgotten about the project. It took a publication by the Nigerian Tribune for the apex bank leaders to remember they had an abandoned housing estate in Ibadan. Shortly after the publication, the leadership scurried to Ibadan to inspect the estate and made a promise to revamp it. But since then, over 10 years ago, nothing has happened to change the narrative. Now, the money put into the estate appears lost as exposure to the elements over the years has weakened the structures.

But why should the CBN worry about losing a few billions of Naira since it has more money than it needs?

The problem with the CBN is not different from that with the nation; we are endowed beyond our capacity to manage. And a mismatch between endowment and capacity never fails to result in frustration. Since over-endowment has stalled our development, should we ask God to block the excess blessings and leave us with just the little we have the capacity to handle? Since we are lagging behind countries which are not as endowed as we are, should we tell God to take away the blessings blocking our progress? Should we ask God to dry up our oil wells so that we can regain our capacity to think properly? Should we tell him to take away this curse disguised as a blessing?

Strictly Personal

All eyes in Africa are on Kenya’s bid for a reset, By Joachim Buwembo

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Whoever impregnated Angela Rayner and caused her to drop out of school at the tender age of 16 with no qualifications might be disappointed that we aren’t asking who her baba mtoto (child’s father) is; whether he became a president, king or a vagabond somewhere, since the girl ‘whose leg he broke’ is now UK’s second most powerful person, 28 years since he ‘stole her goat’.

Angela’s rise to such heights after the adversity should be a lesson to countries which, six decades after independence, still have millions of citizens wallowing in poverty and denied basic human dignity, while the elite shamelessly flaunt obscene luxury on their hungry, twisted faces.

After independence, African countries also suffered their adolescent setbacks in the form of military coups. Uganda’s military rule lasted eight years, Kenya’s about eight hours on August 1, 1982, while Tanzania’s didn’t materialise and its first defence chief became an ambassador somewhere.

What we learn from Angela Rayner is that when you’re derailed, it doesn’t matter who derailed you, because nobody wants to know. What matters is that you pick yourself up, not just to march on, but to stand up and shine.To incessantly blame our colonial and slave-trading ‘derailers’ while we treat our fellow citizens worse than the colonialists did only invites the world to laugh. Have you ever read of a colonial officer demanding a bribe from a local before providing the service due?

African countries today need to press ‘reset’. A state operates by written policies, plans, strategies and prescribed penalties with gazetted prisons for those who break the rules.  This is far more power than teenage Angela had, so a reset state should take less time to become prosperous than the 28 years it took her to get to the top after derailing.

So it’s realistic for countries to operate on five-year planning and electoral cycles, so a state that fails to implement a programme in five years has something wrong with it. It needs a reset.

A basic reset course for African leaders and economists should include:

1. Mindset change: Albert Einstein teaches us that no problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. For example, if you are in debt, seeking or accepting more debt is using the same level of thinking that put you there. If you don’t like Einstein’s genius, you can even try an animal in the bush that falls into a hole and stops digging. Our economists are certainly better than a beast in the bush.

2. Stealing is wrong: African leaders and civil servants need to revisit their catechism or madarasa – stealing public resources is as immoral as rape.

3. Justifying wrong doesn’t make it right: Using legalese and putting sinful benefits in the budget is immoral and can incite the deprived to destroy everything.

4. Take inventory of your resources and plan to use them: If Kenya, for example, has a railway line running from Mombasa to Nairobi, is it prudent to borrow $3.6 billion to build a highway parallel to it before paying off and electrifying the railway?

If Uganda is groaning under a $2 billion annual petrol import bill, does it make sense to beg Kenya for access to import more fuel, when Kampala is already manufacturing and marketing electric buses, while failing to use hundreds of megawatts it generates, yet the country has to pay for the unused power?

If Tanzania… okay, TZ has entered the 21st Century with its electric trains soon to be operating between Dar es Salaam and Morogoro. Ethiopia, too, has connected Addis Ababa to the port of Djibouti with a 753-kilometre electric railway,  and moves hundreds of thousands of passengers in Addis every day by electric train.

5. Protect the environment: We don’t own it, we borrowed it from our parents to preserve it for our children. Who doesn’t know that the future of the planet is at stake?

6. Do monitoring and evaluation: Otherwise you may keep doing the same thing that does not work and hope for better results, as a sage defined lunacy.

7. Don’t blame the victims of your incompetence: This is basic fairness.

We could go on, but how boring! Who doesn’t know these mundane points? We are not holding our breath for Angela’s performance, because if she fails, she will be easily replaced. Africa’s eyes should now be on Kenya to see how they manage an abrupt change without the mass bloodshed that often accompanies revolutions.

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Strictly Personal

The post-budget crisis in Kenya might be good for Africa, after all, By Joachim Buwembo

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The surging crisis that is being witnessed in Kenya could end up being a good thing for Africa if the regional leaders could step back and examine the situation clinically with cool-headed interest. Maybe there is a hand of God in the whole affair. For, how do explain the flare not having started in harder-pressed countries such as Zambia, Mozambique and Ghana?

As fate would have it, it happened in East Africa, the region that is supposed to provide the next leadership of the African Union Commission, in a process that is about to start. And, what is the most serious crisis looming on Africa’s horizon? It is Debt of course.

Even the UN has warned the entire world that Africa’s debt situation is now a crisis. As at now, three or four countries are not facing debt trouble — and that is only for now.

There is one country, though, that is virtually debt-free, having just been freed from debt due to circumstances: Somalia. And it is the newest member of the East African Community. Somalia has recently had virtually all its foreign debt written off in recognition of the challenges it has been facing in nearly four decades.

Why is this important? Because debt is the choicest weapon of neocolonialists. There is no sweeter way to steal wealth than to have its owners deliver it to you, begging you, on all fours, to take it away from them, as you quietly thank the devil, who has impaired their judgement to think that you are their saviour.

So?

So, the economic integration Africa has embarked on will, over the next five or so years, go through are a make-or-break stage, and it must be led by a member that is debt-free. For, there is no surer weapon to subjugate and control a society than through debt.

A government or a country’s political leadership can talk tough and big until their creditor whispers something then the lion suddenly becomes a sheep. Positions agreed on earlier with comrades are sheepishly abandoned. Scheduled official trips get inexplicably cancelled.

Debt is that bad. In African capitals, presidents have received calls from Washington, Paris or London to cancel trips and they did, so because of debt vulnerability.

In our villages, men have lost wives to guys they hate most because of debt. At the state level, governments have lost command over their own institutions because of debt. The management of Africa’s economic transition, as may be agreed upon jointly by the continental leaders, needs to be implemented by a member without crippling foreign debt so they do not get instructions from elsewhere.

The other related threat to African states is armed conflict, often internal and not interstate. Somalia has been going through this for decades and it is to the credit of African intervention that statehood was restored to the country.

This is the biggest prize Africa has won since it defeated colonialism in (mostly) the 1960s decade. The product is the new Somalia and, to restore all other countries’ hope, the newly restored state should play a lead role in spreading stability and confidence across Africa.

One day, South Sudan, too, should qualify to play a lead role on the continent.

What has been happening in Kenya can happen in any other African country. And it can be worse. We have seen once promising countries with strong economies and armies, such as Libya, being ravaged into near-Stone Age in a very short time. Angry, youthful energy can be destructive, and opportunistic neocolonialists can make it inadvertently facilitate their intentions.

Containing prolonged or repetitive civil uprisings can be economically draining, both directly in deploying security forces and also by paralysing economic activity.

African countries also need to become one another’s economic insurance. By jointly managing trade routes with their transport infrastructure, energy sources and electricity distribution grids, and generally pursuing coordinated industrialisation strategies in observance of regional and national comparative advantages, they will sooner than later reduce insecurity, even as the borders remain porous.

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