Connect with us

Strictly Personal

Putin’s tribal war by Dare Babarinsa

Published

on

The Ukrainian conflict may prove to be the most consequential war of the 21st Century. It may also signal the end of the Vladimir Putin era in Russian politics and the reduction of the once-mighty Russia into a glorified Third World country armed with nuclear weapons. That may be the ultimate oxymoron, but it is not far-fetched.

On Monday, Russia and China denied America’s allegation that Russia is seeking military help from China. That this allegation could be made, at all, is a pointer to the terrible straight Russia had found itself under Putin. Without its oil export today, Russia cannot even compete with China not to talk of its old Western Allies with whom it fought Germany during the Second World War.

The Ukrainian War may also signal an end to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), in its old form as a military alliance. Faced with serious challenge from the catholic economic muscle of a resurgent China, the NATO alliance needs to reconsider itself as a military body.

Economics and diplomacy may dominate future conflicts without counting the army divisions of each side. The Western powers may be thinking that it is time to seize the initiatives from the Chinese factory workers who are dominating the world. They have even surpassed the Japanese as the ultimate economic rival to the Western World.

In 1987, I had joined a team of 15 distinguished visitors to Capitol Hill, the home of the American legislature, The Congress. On the corridor were many television monitors broadcasting live on C-Span network, the proceedings of The Senate. All the television sets that we saw were Japanese-made, mostly of the Sony brand.

A female Senator, who hosted our team in her office, complained that Americans were surrendering to the economic aggression of the Japanese.

Few years after our visit to the Capitol Hill, Japanese automaker, Toyota, surpassed General Motors as the number-one automobile manufacturer in the world.

Now both Japanese and the Americans are facing the competition of their lives from the Chinese. These were the Chinese that were so beholding to the Russians in the first half of the 20th Century.

During his 25 years in power, China’s Supreme Leader, Chairman Mao Zedong, travelled outside his country twice. On both occasions, he journeyed to Moscow to meet with Russian leaders.

During the Chinese Civil War that lasted for almost 30 years, the Chinese were the clients of the Russians, beholding to them in every way. Mao knew the Chinese Revolution would have been a non-starter without the help of the Russians and their leader, Comrade Josef Stalin, the famed Man of Steel.

Today, there are not enough steel in Russia to arm its troops and change the map of Europe. Putin’s gamble in invading Ukraine is nothing but a reckless attempt to force the world to reckon with him. Russia still has the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Its military is still ranked as second only to America’s.

By igniting another tribal war in Europe, Putin is making a bad situation worse. His victory, if it ever comes, would be very costly and unsustainable in the long run. Instead of having Ukraine as a buffer zone between his country and the West, he is turning almost all former satellite states of the old Soviet Union into anti-Russian countries.

Putin has rightly gambled that the West would not want to confront Russia militarily on the ground or in the sky. Despite the repeated request of Ukraine and its leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that America and its NATO allies should declare Ukraine a no-flying zone, America declined to do so. Ukrainians know that if America declares Ukraine a no-flying zone, Russia does not have the capacity to confront America in the sky. The Russian air force is second-rate compare to the air-muscle of the United States and its allies. Though it might be tactically effective to create a no-flying zone over Ukraine, it would be strategically suicidal.

Russia is not just another country with a second-rate air force. It is a nuclear power, the greatest in the world after America. It has enough nukes to destroy the world 10 times over. Russia is also a dictatorship where one man rules. If Putin is humiliated in the sky, he might be tempted to use chemical weapons or even reach for the nuclear button. A thermonuclear war with Russia may not last more than one week, but all the major cities of the world; New York, Moscow, London, St Petersburg, Paris, Washington DC, Rome, would be destroyed. Humanity may be reduced to ground-zero and civilisation returned to where it was 5,000 years ago.

It is evident that the Ukrainians are the losers in this conflict. The young Ukrainian president, who came to power on the wings of anti-Russian rhetoric, refused or was unable to acknowledge the strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia. In recent past, Ukraine had joined NATO forces in staging an elaborate joint military exercise on Ukrainian soil.

Zelenskyy had also upped his rhetoric against Russia by saying he was ready to defend his country’s territorial integrity by all means. He thought his NATO allies would go to war to defend him. He was wrong.

Putin has done enough to provoke Ukrainian hostility. First he seized Crimea, the rich resort of Ukraine. He is also promoting separatist agenda within Ukraine in provinces that have substantial number of native Russians. In truth, Putin was acting as an arch-tribalist, promoting only the interests of his kinsmen. Yet despite these provocations, a more mature leadership would have handled Russia differentially.

There are many things for Ukraine to protect. Its citizens live better than the Russians; they are richer, healthier and have greater access to the good things of life. Ukraine has the best health system in the old Eastern Europe, certainly better than Russia’s. This week, the United Nations Secretary General described Ukraine as the food basket of the world. If the truth must be told, the Russians envy their wealthier cousin, the Ukrainians.

With a more experienced leadership, Ukraine would have avoided this new tribal war. They could have done less with Russian baiting despite the heavy breathing of the Russian bear and the reckless ambition of Putin. By their ceaseless dalliance with the West, they provoked the anger and belligerence of the insecure Putin. It is no consolation that this war is most likely to end badly for Putin and his corrupt and inefficient oligarchy.

There is a lot to learn from the Ukrainian experience. One, war does not give sufficient notice. Two, no one, no matter how much he loves you, will fight your war for you. Three, it is always better to be prepared for war if you want peace.

Nigeria is not at war, but we have seen how unprepared we are even to maintain a semblance of peace. Few weeks ago, some well-fed billionaires imported bad fuel for us and for weeks, queues have resurfaced at fuel stations. No one has been sanctioned or considered culpable. Let the people bear the brunt. There is no strategic reserve for our oil in case of crisis, war or natural disaster. Mere wrong importation by some fat blokes had disrupted the national balance.

Even our trains cannot run its schedule course without running out of fuel and passengers get stranded in the middle of nowhere. Of course, it is normal and no one it to be blamed. How then can we be surprised that a suspected killer had the presence of mind to become the queen of Kirikiri Prison? One wisecrack declared: “If you are living in Nigeria and your BP is normal, then you are not normal!”

 

Strictly Personal

Tanzania, we need to talk, By Othman Masoud Othman

Published

on

The ACT-Wazalendo party has been closely following and monitoring political events in the United Republic of Tanzania which, if not attended to urgently, might lead our country into an abyss.

In the six years of the presidency of John Pombe Magufuli, the country suffered a lot. There were claims of narrowing of the democratic space, the right to assemble and the right to free speech.

After the death of President Magufuli and Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed power, there was a sign of hope. The public optimistically welcomed the 4Rs (Reconciliation, Rebuild, Reforms, Reunite). Several positive measures were taken, including the formation of a special task force, which involved members from political parties, academic institutions, the private sector, and civil society. The team came up with many measures to be undertaken: Reform of political parties and elections laws, and the enacting of a new constitution. The President went further to investigate the problems around the criminal justice system and how to solve them.

It is one year to the next general election expected in October 2025, but there is a lot of pessimism, as not enough measures have been taken as promised. Even though the Elections Act was reviewed and the Electoral Commission renamed the Independent Electoral Commission, there is a lot to be done, including writing a new constitution and implementing the proposed reforms to the criminal justice system.

recently, there have been cases of abductions and disappearances of some activists and politicians. The situation got tense after a leader of Chadema, Ali Mohamed Kibao, was abducted and later found dead. Chadema accused the government security forces of these events and called for independent investigations. President Samia also condemned the abductions and ordered investigations.

Chadema also called for peaceful protests, demanding accountability and the police banned the demonstrations.

These happenings are a sign of uncertainty towards the general election, starting with the civic elections expected next month.

We urge the Chadema to reconsider demonstrations in the country. Human rights abuses are not just morally wrong, they are short-sighted. Human rights are a sound investment. They build resilient and prosperous communities and strong institutions based on the rule of law.

We, as a party, believe that our country has people full of wisdom and religious leaders who can guide our country back to the right track.

We urge all sides of the political divide to cool down. We believe that all players have reasonable demands and the failure to listen to each other has led us where we are as a country.

We urge the government to quickly initiate dialogue involving political leaders, the police, religious leaders and other stakeholders in order to bring sanity back to our country.

Our party leaders are engaging in talks between the government and other political parties to find solutions. We urge all the citizens of Tanzania to be united on this to build a better future. we believe that this is the time to talk.

Othman Masoud Othman is the First Vice President of Zanzibar and National Chairperson, of ACT-Wazalendo.

Continue Reading

Strictly Personal

Symptoms of a rotten state are all around us, By Tee Ngugi

Published

on

In 2015, an MP was shot in Nairobi in the wee hours of the night. As investigators scrambled to find the killers, members of the Parliamentary Committee on Security, which had approved a multimillion-shilling project to install security cameras in Nairobi, were asked whether the cameras worked.

It was hoped that a camera nearby would have captured the shooting. Their answer summarises what ails Kenya. They said they didn’t know. That admission was staggering.

But what went beyond staggering and entered the realm of absurdity, was that the committee members, including the chairman, continued to serve in the committee.

Let’s pause here for a moment. You commit millions of shillings to a project, and you don’t even bother to check whether it functions as per the terms of reference.

Surely, if the security cameras had been installed in the members’ private homes, they would have checked and rechecked their functionality every day.

First, because they would want the best possible security for themselves and their families. Second, because the money spent on the installation would be theirs. But they couldn’t care less whether the cameras installed in Nairobi worked or not.

What did they care about public safety and public money?

This attitude of officials neglecting their duties and continuing to hold on to their positions is at the heart of what ails Kenya. We are confronted by the deadly symptoms of this illness daily.

Illegal dams will burst their walls and kill tens of people, yet the officials who approved their construction and the minister under whose docket regulation of dams falls, keep their jobs.

Shoddily constructed buildings will collapse and kill tens of people, yet inspectorate and regulatory officials in the relevant ministry will continue drawing exorbitant salaries.

Of course, the minister and his officials will leave a lavish lunch or dinner at a luxurious hotel, rush to the accident site and offer tired platitudes, and prayers for the victims, before waddling to their petrol guzzlers to be ferried back to their hotels to finish their feast.

That will be the end of that matter until the next building claims other lives.

Every year, thousands of people die in car accidents because of poor roads, defective vehicles and police failure to enforce traffic rules.

In March this year, we lost 11 university students in a road accident. Neither the transport officials nor the minister in charge resigned.

The other week, 21 pupils of Hillside Endarasha Academy died in a dormitory inferno. Officials from the ministry’s inspectorate division have not resigned. The minister continues to enjoy largesse at the expense of the taxpayer.

These are just a few examples of neglect and impunity. The Gen- Z revolution called for the complete overhaul of the Kenyan state.

The overhaul cannot be done by the corrupt Kanu oligarchy that has ruled Kenya since 1963. We need new leadership to avert total state failure.

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator

Continue Reading

EDITOR’S PICK

Tech13 hours ago

France’s VC firm Bpifrance launches in Egypt in bid to expand into Africa

France’s largest venture capital firm, Bpifrance, has partnered with Egyptian venture capital firm, Sawari Ventures, to launch a new base...

Culture13 hours ago

MultiChoice targets illegal streamers in crackdown against piracy

Satellite television services provider, MultiChoice, says it is now targeting illegal streamers in its renewed crackdown against piracy. Frikkie Jonker,...

Sports13 hours ago

Kenya’s marathon legend Eliud Kipchoge becomes UN Sports Ambassador

Kenya’s marathon legend, Eliud Kipchoge, has been named the Goodwill Ambassador for Sports, Integrity and Values by the United Nations...

Metro13 hours ago

ZESCO says Zambians can enjoy improved power supply but offers condition

State-owned Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation Limited (ZESCO) has assured Zambians of improved power supply spanning seven-hour daily, depending on the...

Uncategorized17 hours ago

Kenyan MPs vote to impeach deputy president

The Senate will now be able to consider the impeachment petition of Kenya’s deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, who is accused...

VenturesNow18 hours ago

Fortuna Mining says Burkina Faso won’t scrap permits

The Burkina Faso government does not intend to revoke Fortuna Mining’s current mining permits within the nation, the Canadian company...

VenturesNow18 hours ago

Nigerian govt begins 2025 retirees’ enrollment

Nigeria’s National Pension Commission has declared that it has formally begun the process of enrolling potential retirees in 2025, highlighting...

Musings From Abroad18 hours ago

US CDC issues second-highest Marburg travel advisory for Rwanda

As a result of the Marburg disease epidemic in Rwanda, the United States government has announced that its agency will...

Metro19 hours ago

All the choices we have made are for sustainable, inclusive growth— Tinubu

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has reiterated that all the choices his administration has made since assuming office 17 months ago...

Tech1 day ago

Nigeria’s agri-tech startup Winich Farms raises $3m to expand operations

Nigerian agri-tech startup specialized in the supply of farm grain produce to retailers, Winich Farms, has announced raising $3 million...

Trending