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IMF says Nigeria’s quiet reinstatement of petrol subsidy to gulp 50% of oil revenue

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s quiet return of petrol subsidy is anticipated to consume about 50% of its estimated oil earnings for this year.

Based on the IMF’s assessment, Africa’s largest producer of crude oil is expected to incur an implicit subsidy of around N8.43tn ($5.9bn), which will reduce its projected N17.7tn of oil earnings. This advice was stated in the most recent IMF staff country report for Nigeria.

The Bank of America estimated that Nigeria may incur a cost of $7 billion to $10 billion this year if it imported a quantity of gasoline ranging from 18 billion to 25 billion litres. Tatonga Rusike, an economist specializing in sub-Saharan Africa at Bank of America, stated in a written communication.

This recent comment was made about a year after the President, during his inaugural speech, publicly halted the disbursement of subsidies.

“Subsidy can no longer justify its ever-increasing costs in the wake of drying resources. We shall instead re-channel the funds into better investment in public infrastructure, education, health care, and jobs that will materially improve the lives of millions. Petrol subsidy is gone,” Tinubu had declared.

The President’s declaration resulted in a surge in petrol prices, which rose from N197 to a range of N480 to N570. The pump price was then increased to N617 per litre and is currently being sold for prices ranging from N620 to N700 per litre.

The report read, “Fuel subsidies were reformed in June 2023, however, adequate compensatory measures for the poor were not scaled up promptly and subsequently paused over corruption concerns.”

“The devaluation of the naira days later, which was aimed at creating a free-floating currency, led fuel prices to more than triple, fanning inflation and protests.

“To help Nigerians cope, authorities started capping fuel pump prices below cost, reintroducing implicit subsidies by end-2023,” the IMF said.

The currency has experienced a depreciation of around 70% against the dollar since last June. Nigeria, although it is the biggest oil producer in Africa, relies on imports for most of its gasoline requirements due to insufficient refining capacity to satisfy domestic demand.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it anticipates the elimination of the fuel subsidy to be fully implemented within two years. This will occur as the government expands its cash transfer program, which is specifically aimed at assisting the most impoverished individuals in the country.

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Nigeria’s ARN Foods partners Canada’s AGI Miltec for rice milling plants

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One of Nigeria’s commodities trading organisations, A.R.N Foods, is making the move into rice milling and production. To process high-quality rice and increase food security in Nigeria, AGI Miltec, a global provider of grain processing solutions, has teamed up with A.R.N Foods.

Adelota Nola, the founder and CEO of ARN Foods, stated during the contract signing ceremony in Lagos on Friday, that his firm will use AGI Milltec’s cutting-edge solutions to process high-quality rice for the Nigerian market as part of their partnership.

Stressing that the collaboration is a team of experts to drive food sustainability and maximize the agricultural value chain which has remained under-explored in Africa. According to Nola, A.R.N. is taking the lead in finding a solution to the shortage of rice which has proven to be the world’s largest staple in demand.

Also in attendance was the Executive Director at Providus Bank, Mr Adeoye, the Chief Executive Officer of Parallex Bank- Olufemi Bakare, Executives from Lotus Bank, Media mogul Chief Dele Momodu and other top executives, partners and stakeholders.

“The deficit is very large. We can only start from somewhere. If we sleep and say the problems are so much and there is nothing we can do about it, then we will all just continue to sleep. But if we say we can do a little by taking the first step to solving the problem like we are doing today, then someone from somewhere can emulate what we are doing.

“If 100 people try to solve the problem, one day the problem will be solved. We have taken the first step to solving the rice deficit problem in Nigeria,” he said.

Vincent Joseph, the Business Development Manager for AGI in Nigeria, discussed the company’s history and experience that made it suitable for ARN’s ambitious goals. The company has over thirty years of experience operating throughout continents and Africa, and it has constructed over ten mill plants in Nigeria.

“The rice quality we see today is due to two reasons. One is the quality of paddy itself and the second comes from the way it is processed. There are still people over here that are using traditional methodology for processing and the quality of that will not be so good.

“We have 25 years’ experience in the rice milling sector. In Nigeria, we are not new. We know the quality of paddy and the requirements. We would like to bring the same quality to Nigeria. This one has been specifically designed for the Nigerian market and we already know the benchmark that Nola is looking for,” he said.

According to Joseph, the collaboration between the two companies would be smooth because A.R.N. Foods already has backward integration and is processing its rice paddies as the next natural step. He emphasised the solid engineering and financial foundation of AGI Milltec.

He also emphasized that the construction of the mill will be according to the acceptable standards from its parent country – Canada, thus issues around managing emissions from the mill plant will not arise.

Currently, Nigeria produces more rice than any other country in West Africa. The nation consumes more rice than any other country in the region in absolute terms because of its massive population. The average national production of milled rice is 3.3 million tonnes, compared to an anticipated 5.2 million tonnes of yearly consumption. But post-harvest loss remains one of the biggest challenges in the rice farming space, with private investment like ARN geared towards the space, it is yet to be seen if local rice production can become sufficient, and become export goods in the global highly competitive market.

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Zimbabwe looks to private companies to increase rail freight volumes

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To increase freight volumes that had fallen as a result of decades of underinvestment, Zimbabwe’s state-owned railway operator has opened up its network to private operators, including a division of South Africa’s Grindrod, an official said.

At its height in the 1990s, Zimbabwe’s National Railways handled 12 million tonnes of cargo annually; today, however, due to a shortage of locomotives and inadequate maintenance of its rail system, it handles less than 3 million tonnes.

In addition, the collapse came after a precipitous fall in mineral and agricultural production brought on by the violent takeover of white-owned farms in 2000, which was supported by Robert Mugabe, the former leader of Zimbabwe.

Nonetheless, China’s desire for lithium and chrome is the primary driver of the recovery in mineral output.

Recent years have seen the establishment of iron ore, steel, chrome, and lithium enterprises in Zimbabwe by Chinese corporations including Tsingshan Holdings, Sinosteel, Sinomine, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, and Chengxin Lithium.

Through Mozambique’s ports, they export minerals to China, and the NRZ’s present capability isn’t keeping up with the expanding volume of commodities being exported. With the help of private businesses, the state-owned organisation is currently trying to increase its capacity.

“Last year we uplifted 2.8 million tons against the available business of 3 million tons,” NRZ spokesperson Andrew Kunambura told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

“So these private companies are coming in with their locomotives and wagons to augment what we have.”

As part of the agreement, Grindrod has deployed three locomotives and 150 waggons through its Zimbabwean subsidiary, Beitbridge Bulawayo Railway, since March.

The logistics company based in South Africa is preparing for goods train partnerships in the region as underfunded state-owned operators allow private players to access its deteriorating networks.

The mineral-rich country is seeing an increase in new mining operations that need more rail capacity. It also contains some of the largest resources of copper and lithium in the world, which are needed for renewable energy.

To capitalise on the growing market potential in the area, Grindrod has reorganised its rail division, CEO Xolani Mbambo informed analysts last week. The DRC’s inland railway business and Transnet, a South African corporation that also intends to open up its network to private operators, are potential partners for the company. Recently, the company reached an agreement to cooperate with Transnet.

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