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IMF says Nigeria’s quiet reinstatement of petrol subsidy to gulp 50% of oil revenue

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s quiet return of petrol subsidy is anticipated to consume about 50% of its estimated oil earnings for this year.

Based on the IMF’s assessment, Africa’s largest producer of crude oil is expected to incur an implicit subsidy of around N8.43tn ($5.9bn), which will reduce its projected N17.7tn of oil earnings. This advice was stated in the most recent IMF staff country report for Nigeria.

The Bank of America estimated that Nigeria may incur a cost of $7 billion to $10 billion this year if it imported a quantity of gasoline ranging from 18 billion to 25 billion litres. Tatonga Rusike, an economist specializing in sub-Saharan Africa at Bank of America, stated in a written communication.

This recent comment was made about a year after the President, during his inaugural speech, publicly halted the disbursement of subsidies.

“Subsidy can no longer justify its ever-increasing costs in the wake of drying resources. We shall instead re-channel the funds into better investment in public infrastructure, education, health care, and jobs that will materially improve the lives of millions. Petrol subsidy is gone,” Tinubu had declared.

The President’s declaration resulted in a surge in petrol prices, which rose from N197 to a range of N480 to N570. The pump price was then increased to N617 per litre and is currently being sold for prices ranging from N620 to N700 per litre.

The report read, “Fuel subsidies were reformed in June 2023, however, adequate compensatory measures for the poor were not scaled up promptly and subsequently paused over corruption concerns.”

“The devaluation of the naira days later, which was aimed at creating a free-floating currency, led fuel prices to more than triple, fanning inflation and protests.

“To help Nigerians cope, authorities started capping fuel pump prices below cost, reintroducing implicit subsidies by end-2023,” the IMF said.

The currency has experienced a depreciation of around 70% against the dollar since last June. Nigeria, although it is the biggest oil producer in Africa, relies on imports for most of its gasoline requirements due to insufficient refining capacity to satisfy domestic demand.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it anticipates the elimination of the fuel subsidy to be fully implemented within two years. This will occur as the government expands its cash transfer program, which is specifically aimed at assisting the most impoverished individuals in the country.

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Egypt’s November inflation drops to 25.5%, near 2-year low

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According to figures released Tuesday by statistics agency CAPMAS, Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation rate fell more than anticipated to 25.5% in November, the lowest level since December 2022.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused international investors to pull billions of dollars out of Egyptian treasury markets, inflation started to rise sharply in early 2022.

In September 2023, headline inflation reached a record high of 38.0%. It dropped to 26.5% by October 2024.

In a Reuters survey last month, 15 economists’ consensus prediction was for annual inflation to gradually decline to 26.4%.

According to CAPMAS statistics, headline inflation decreased from 1.1% in October to 0.5% in November every month.

Compared to October, when they fell 1.1%, food costs fell 2.8% over the month, making them 23.3% more than they were a year ago.

An increase in the money supply has been a major contributor to inflation. According to central bank data, Egypt’s M2 money supply increased by 29.54% in October compared to the same month last year.

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Nigeria creates N20bn consumer credit fund for domestic automakers

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In an attempt to increase demand for cars built domestically, the Nigerian government has established a N20 billion consumer credit facility programme.

The goal of the programme, which is run by the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (Credicorp), is to keep customer interest rates to single digit.

The fund aims to remove obstacles that consumers face when purchasing cars on credit, according to Credicorp Managing Director/CEO Engr. Uzoma Nwagba, who spoke at the official launch/agreement signing between Credicorp and the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC) in Abuja.

Nwagba said that the credit economy contributed to the creation of jobs and wealth for Nigerians as well as to the enhancement of residents’ quality of life.

According to him, the government is dedicated to helping the industry in order to guarantee its expansion and survival. According to him, the N20 billion fund was only the start, and if the initial support proves effective, the government intends to create a larger fund.

Earlier, Mr. Joseph Osanipin, the Director General of NADDC, stated that the industry’s expansion depends on the demand side of the car market being improved.

According to Osanipin, credit programs enable consumers to acquire brand-new cars of their choosing, but in the majority of prosperous nations, people do not pay cash for cars and other autos.

According to him, the program, which covers all types of autos such cars, vans, tricycles, and motorbikes, is available to all Nigerians and involves automakers that produce or assemble their goods entirely domestically.

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