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Beyond the merger of the political parties, By Jideofor Adibe

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The recent call by former Vice President and Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar, for a merger of opposition parties against the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has been generating interesting conversations.

It should be recalled that in a statement issued by Paul Ibe, the media adviser to the former Vice President when the latter hosted the national executive committee of the Inter-Party Advisory Council, IPAC, in Abuja, Atiku warned that “Nigeria is fast becoming a one-party system” and called for a formidable opposition to address what he regarded as the “decline in democratic values” in order to prevent the country from becoming a de facto one party system.

He was further quoted as saying: “We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party. If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn.”

The major opposition parties – the Labour Party and the New Nigerian Party have welcomed the proposal, with the NNNP’s Publicity Secretary Yakubu Shendam, giving the caveat that any merger must be to support Rabiu Kwankwaso to become President, otherwise, it would not be interested.

Three key issues involved

There are three key issues involved in the conversation about a possible merger of the leading opposition parties: First, is an interrogation of the argument that Nigeria is on a path to becoming a one-party state as claimed by Atiku and that the only way to stop that is for the opposition parties to merge and present a formidable front. Second, is the feasibility of such a merger. And third, is whether such a merger will be the panacea to the challenges of our democracy as Atiku Abubakar implied.

Is Nigeria on the road to becoming a one party state, given the inherent weaknesses of the opposition parties as claimed by Alhaji Atiku Abubakar? There is no doubt that the PDP, the main opposition party, has been very weakened by losing three successive presidential elections while the Labour Party, which brought a lot of momentum during the 2023 election, is in control of only one state and apparently lacks the resources – both material and in manpower terms to mount a concerted and sustained opposition to the government of the day. It is not also clear whether Peter Obi will be able to sustain the enthusiasm of the ‘Obidients’ – the youth-based mass movement that provided much of the energy and panache that drove his candidacy in the 2023 presidential election.

The weaknesses of the opposition parties however do not necessarily translate into an inexorable drive to a one-party state. It is here important to make a distinction between a one-party state and a one-party dominant state. A one-party state is a situation where only one party is allowed by law to exist while a one-party dominant system is where other parties exist but only one is viable enough to consistently win power at the centre.

Since our extant laws permit the existence of several parties that meet the constitutionally stipulated requirements, Nigeria cannot be a one-party state – however weak the opposition parties may be. It can at best be a one- party dominant system. Given the structure of the country and its diversity even a one-party dominant system will have a short shelf life because the inevitable disaffection by some constituent parts of the country which feel left out or marginalised by the party in control of power at the centre is likely to lead to some strong regional parties.

The party at the centre will itself become weakened once you have two or more strong regionally based parties – creating the opportunity for something to give in, especially if the strong man whose charisma or authoritarianism held the party together is no longer in power. We saw this in the Second Republic when the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, dominated the centre but there were strong regional parties like the UPN in the South-West, the NPP in the East, the GNPP among the Kanuris in the North and the PRP in Kano.

Until the merger that gave rise to the APC in 2014, we had the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, which was dominant in the South-West; All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA, sentiment was strong in Anambra and some South-East states while the ANPP was strong in some ‘core’ Northern states. In essence, Nigeria cannot be a one-party system and even a one-party dominant system will have a short shelf life.

Who will bell the cat?

How feasible will the merger of the parties be? The merger that gave birth to the APC succeeded largely because of the shared frustration of the South-west (controlled by the ACN), which felt alienated from the Jonathan government and the North, which felt that Jonathan contesting the 2011 election robbed it of the chance to complete its turn of eight years following the death of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in May 2010. This shared frustration by two of the biggest voting blocs in the country, was one of the unstated driving forces behind the merger.

Buhari, a darling of the ‘core’ Muslim North at that time (but distrusted passionately in the South) rode on the wave of anti-Obasanjo sentiments in parts of the ‘core’ North when he first contested in 2003. The frustration became magnified in the light of the zoning controversy following the decision of Goodluck Jonathan to contest the 2011 presidential election. Buhari’s popularity in the ‘core’ Muslim North at that time meant that he was guaranteed the nearly 12 million votes he polled consistently since 2003 from his base.

It also meant that the South-West, substantially controlled by Tinubu’s political machine, was guaranteed to give Buhari the spread he never had. Can the merger of the opposition as advocated by Atiku be able to recreate the APC’s formula?  While Peter Obi is likely to retain substantial goodwill, especially in the South-East, it is not certain for now that the opposition will be able to get a candidate with the sort of guaranteed vote bank that Buhari had in the North in any part of the country.

There will of course be additional hurdles such as which part of the country will present the presidential candidate for the merged parties, who will be the flagbearer for the party and the response of the ruling APC to the merger talks. The hawks in the ruling APC may not be as ‘gentlemanly as Jonathan was during the merger talks that birthed the APC.

Merger as panacea to the challenges faced by our democracy?

While the call for merger makes practical sense, it is also symptomatic of one of the major problems of our electoral competition–  politics without principles in which the political parties are merely special purpose vehicles, SPVs, for capturing power. If the proposed merger of the parties succeeds, it is not clear how such will automatically resolve the problem of how to make our elections less anarchic and less expensive, or how it will ensure that elections no longer deepen the distrust and widen the social distance among the different constituents of the country. It is equally not clear how such a merger will help routinise our elections such that we do not need to impose curfews or restrict movement whenever elections are conducted or how it will ensure that those in power do not abuse their offices, including using state power to privilege their in-groups, while disadvantaging others.

Fixing our democracy goes beyond changing one set of political personnel to another set – irrespective of the messianic packaging they come in. It requires both fixing the rules governing the operations of the democratic process such as elections and fixing the conduct of the human agents that operate the democracy. It is akin to the structure versus agency debate.

Rather than dissipate energy on the merger of political parties aimed at merely changing the political personnel, I will recommend a rotational collegial presidency made up of six people (one from each of the six geopolitical zones) into any form of governance system that is recommended. The six members of the Presidential Council will take turns of two years each to be President of the Council, while the others will be Vice Presidents with constitutionally designated powers. The tenure of the Council will be a single term of twelve years – a period long enough to give everyone a break from elections and their tendency to divide Nigerians along certain fault lines.

Strictly Personal

Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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