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Nigeria: Who is in charge? By Reuben Abati

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A week ago, President Muhammadu Buhari travelled out of the country on a two-week medical vacation. He is expected back in the country next week. As has been the pattern since he assumed office in 2015, and he travelled on medical vacation eight months later, Nigerians again this time around raised the same concerns about why our leaders are always travelling abroad for medical reasons – they have failed to develop the medical infrastructure at home. In a country that used to be a medical tourism destination for persons as far away as the Middle East in the 70s, it is true that what we now have in the health sector in Nigeria is shameful; indeed the entire social sector is disgraceful. Despite the fact that we have some of the best brains and most talented people in the world, our leaders have to travel abroad for even simple procedures such as toothache, because they have failed to provide an enabling environment in Nigeria for excellence. 

One senior citizen once told me that an expert who was described as the best in a particular medical field was recommended to him a few years ago, but he would have to go to South Africa to meet the particular specialist. He packed his bags, hopped on a plane, and headed out. When he got to the South African hospital, the specialist that he was directed to see was a Nigerian. He protested that he did not travel all the way to come and see a Nigerian doctor. He had to be reminded that if he wanted the best consultant for his medical condition, he had better submit himself to the Nigerian! This is not an apocryphal tale: it is a fitting description of what has happened to Nigeria in virtually all fields of human endeavour, be it sports or prostitution.  

Hence, when the issue of the president travelling again for medical reasons came up, I thought we had been on this matter for too long. One, his handlers have told us that he had been consulting doctors in the United Kingdom long before he became Nigerian president, and that it would be unfair to expect him to change his doctors for populist reasons. His health has indeed been an issue, prompting many Nigerians to insist that, given the experience of presidential illness under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and now under President Muhammadu Buhari, presidential aspirants must be made to submit their certificates of medical fitness before aspiring to the highest office in the land. Since 2015, President Buhari has spent over 212 days abroad for medical reasons. In 2017 alone, he first travelled for 50 days, and then went back a second time for 104 days. In-between, the president has travelled for various periods of six, 15 or 12 days, and longer, with his trips having to be extended on more than one occasion. 

I have had cause to argue that presidents are human beings too. They can fall sick like other human beings. They and their families would also want them alive, and may seek medical care where they hope they can get the best. Besides, the president is 79. When Nigerians vote for an elderly man as president, they should very well expect that certain things come with old age, even if young men can also fall sick. The thing about democracy is that how a people choose their leaders has its direct consequences. To the delight of his family and supporters, however, President Buhari has managed to find the strength to remain on his feet and do two terms in office. In another 100 days, his successor would most likely have been known and he’d begin to pack out of the Presidential Villa. A new president would be sworn in, and he and his family would pack their own bags into the many rooms in the Villa. Nigerians would be left with the pains and gains of the Buhari administration. I hope we have learnt our lessons. 

But there would be one lingering matter, to cut a long story short: how the Buhari administration handled the matter of presidential absence. We have seen in this regard, under this administration, routine violations of the constitutional order so frequently, we simply got used to it. It is an aberration that should not continue because it amounts to utter disregard for the rule of law. Every president takes an oath of office to defend the rule of law and the constitution. The office of the Attorney General of the Federation exists to guide the government of the day about the constitutional order. When a government breaks the law, no matter how small, it is unacceptable from a principled stand. As presidential candidates are now busy on the campaign trail, one question that they must be asked is whether or not in the event of absence from office, they would be willing to hand over power to their vice president as required by law. Here is what the law says: 

Section 145(1): “Whenever the President is proceeding on vacation or is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, he SHALL transmit a written declaration to the president of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to that effect, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, the Vice President shall perform the functions of the President as Acting President”.

It is on record that the president has only transmitted power formally to the vice president twice since 2015 – in 2016 when he proceeded on a 10-day vacation, and once in 2018. Since then, the president simply travels when he wants to and returns as he wishes on either official or private trips. Where the trip is official, such as attendance at international conferences, state or working visits, the absence is understandable…

This is a very clear, unambiguous and direct constitutional provision. Lawyers understand that when the words used in the Constitution are clear and unambiguous, they must be interpreted in a literal sense. The use of the word “shall” by the framers of the Constitution also means that the command of the law is obligatory, not discretionary. Whereas Section 5 of the Constitution vests executive powers in the president, the same constitution, in parts, defines circumstances under which he cannot exercise absolute powers or attempt to rewrite the law, and one of those regards has to do with when he is absent from office, or incapacitated or dies. Indeed, Section 145 (2), goes further on the matter of presidential absence thus: “In the event that the President is unable or fails to transmit the written declaration mentioned in subsection (1) of this section within 21 days, the National Assembly shall, by a resolution made by a simple majority of the vote of each House of the National Assembly, mandate the Vice President to perform the functions of the office of the President as Acting President until the President transmits a letter to the President of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives that he is now available to resume his functions as President”. 

There is nowhere in the extant law that the Constitution says that the president of Nigeria can leave town as he wishes without informing the National Assembly formally and without transferring authority to the vice president. This created a constitutional crisis in 2010 during the Yar’Adua presidency, when in the face of the terminal illness of President Yar’Adua, and eventual death, the country was left in limbo. The country was dragged through needless tension and controversy as a result. The case has been different under President Buhari because each time he chooses to go AWOL on Nigerians, he still returns, and we all carry on nevertheless, but this does not make his violation of the law excusable. It must be further remembered that President Buhari’s legal advisers have consistently thrown him under the bus by giving him wrong legal advice with regard to either court rulings or the Constitution. The president of Nigeria cannot be above the laws of the land, the same laws that he is sworn to protect under the seventh schedule of the 1999 Constitution.

It is on record that the president has only transmitted power formally to the vice president twice since 2015 – in 2016 when he proceeded on a 10-day vacation, and once in 2018. Since then, the president simply travels when he wants to and returns as he wishes on either official or private trips. Where the trip is official, such as attendance at international conferences, state or working visits, the absence is understandable, but when the president travels for medical reasons for a much longer period, and he is not on duty, he is duty bound to hand over officially to his deputy. The argument that the president of Nigeria can go away for two or three weeks for private reasons, and govern Nigeria from a remote location, amounts to bending the law on its head.  He is not allowed to go away without leave or to embark on a frolic of his own. He cannot transfer power by word of mouth either. He must put it in writing. He must be accountable to the Nigerian people.

Nigerians are even more rightly concerned because the present National Assembly lacks the spine or the moral courage to invoke Section 145(2) of the Constitution. This is a National Assembly that is an extension of the Presidential Villa and whose leaders openly confess their loyalty to the executive arm of government. Some of our lawmakers even go about claiming that they are “adopted sons and daughters” of President Buhari. Is that why they must always look the other way? In more decent societies, their constituencies will demand concrete proof of their adoption! Or “abduction?” And even that does not justify the cherry-picking approach to the rule of law under this administration, which ironically has a lot to show in the area of law reforms and significant legislation, but when it comes to the constitutional order, problems abound.

One reason that has been given is that Vice President Osinbajo cannot be trusted because of the way he “behaved” when in 2018, the president respected the constitution and formally handed over power to him. It is alleged that he started behaving as if the president would not return. His handlers began to project him as a better alternative. They were all over the media “selling” Osinbajo as a healthier, more energetic, more people-friendly alternative.

One reason that has been given is that Vice President Osinbajo cannot be trusted because of the way he “behaved” when in 2018, the president respected the constitution and formally handed over power to him. It is alleged that he started behaving as if the president would not return. His handlers began to project him as a better alternative. They were all over the media “selling” Osinbajo as a healthier, more energetic, more people-friendly alternative. It was said that the vice president even had the temerity to sack the Director General of the Department of State Security, a man from Katsina, the president’s own kinsman. To worsen matters, a group of Yoruba leaders visited Osinbajo in the Presidential Villa in Buhari’s absence! That was the last time his principal formally sent any letter to the National Assembly whenever he was away. There are certain forces in the corridors of power who have never forgiven Professor Osinbajo for openly showing enthusiasm or ambition.

This was confirmed when he tried to run for the presidency on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2022. They led him on and stopped him. What we are dealing with is one of the major omissions in the Nigerian Constitution, which does not assign any concrete role to deputies, either at the state or federal level. A deputy governor or a vice president is considered “a spare tyre”, to be kept to a side of the vehicle and can only be called to service whenever there is an emergency. When such emergencies occur, it must not be because the spare tyre jumped out of its place on its own volition, to cause havoc. Vice President Osinbajo is useful when he is called upon to attend meetings and events, where he is required to sound brilliant and articulate, but when it comes to the exercise of power and authority, he is closely monitored because he is not expected to do so. This is a “spare-tyre” dilemma, and it is why Nigerians must take a second look at the exercise of executive powers. In a new constitution, specific roles must be assigned to deputies. The talk that “it is a joint ticket” is a foreign concept that does not work here. A Nigerian governor or president is technically an absolute monarch. We mut correct that.

Many Nigerians now insist on the full disclosure of the medical condition of the president, but really it is not only in Nigeria that presidents go extra length to hide their illnesses. Woodrow Wilson didn’t want the American public to know that he caught the Spanish flu in 1919. Franklin D. Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and also used crutches but he downplayed his physical condition. J.F. Kennedy was sickly as a child and even as president, he struggled with a cocktail of ailments including chronic back pain. In 1893, President Grover Cleveland disappeared for four days to have surgery secretly on a yacht at sea to remove a tumour. This story is told in Matthew Algeo’s The President is a Sick Man. The whole idea is to project the president as a strong, healthy leader and to prevent the president’s state of health from becoming a political liability. The only difference however is that today, US presidents do not have to travel to the sea for treatment or go into hiding as President Cleveland did in 1893.  In more contemporary times, US presidents, with the notable exception of President Donald J. Trump, have shown greater confidence in disclosing their health conditions. In 1985, President Ronald Reagan transferred power to Vice President George Bush for eight hours while he underwent surgery.  In 2002 and 2007, President George W. Bush also transferred authority to VP Dick Cheney while he was admitted for a colonoscopy procedure. In November 2021, incumbent President Joe Biden transferred power to VP Kamala Harris when he was admitted into hospital for the same procedure, making her the first woman in American history to act as president, even if only for 85 hours! The relevant law in the United States is Section 3 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, which is in pari materia with Section 145 (1) (2) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution.  

In Nigeria, it is usually a tug-of-war to get the president or a governor to hand over power and authority during a period of incapacity or absence. Our problems here include ego, lack of trust, ethnicity, religion, superstition and the menace of the informal power structures in the corridors of power, whose promoters tie their destinies like umbilical cords to the survival of their patron-principal in office. Such characters would do anything and everything to subvert the rule of law. We must decry this. The next president of Nigeria must not at any time go AWOL on Nigerians out of fear, insecurity or both on the grounds of medical vacation abroad. A law-abiding president needs strong legal advisers who are committed to the supremacy of the law, not politicians who bend the law according to the changing vagaries of the weather. The consequence of wanton presidential violations of the constitution is impeachment, but who will dare challenge the monarch? Certainly, not a stomach-driven National Assembly.

Reuben Abati, a former presidential spokesperson, writes from Lagos.

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Strictly Personal

This Sudan war is too senseless; time we ended it, By Tee Ngugi

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Why are the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RPF) engaged in a vicious struggle? It is not that they have ideological, religious or cultural differences.

Not that people should fight because of these kinds of differences, but we live in a world where social constructions often lead to war and genocide. It is not that either side is fighting to protect democracy. Both sides were instruments of the rapacious dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir, who was overthrown in 2019.

 

Both are linked to the massacres in Darfur during Bashir’s rule that led to his indictment by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. They both stood by as ordinary, unarmed people took to the streets and forced the removal of the Bashir regime.

 

None of these entities now fighting to the last Sudanese citizen has any moral authority or constitutional legitimacy to claim power. They both should have been disbanded or fundamentally reformed after the ouster of Bashir.

 

The SAF and the RSF are fighting to take over power and resources and continue the repression and plunder of the regime they had supported for so long. And, as you can see from news broadcasts, they are both well-versed in violence and plunder.

 

Since the fighting began in 2023, both sides have been accused of massacres that have left more than 30,000 people dead. Their fighting has displaced close to 10 million people. Their scramble for power has created Sudan’s worst hunger crisis in decades. Millions of refugees have fled into Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

 

The three countries are dubious places of refuge. Chad is a poor country because of misrule. It also experiences jihadist violence. Ethiopia is still simmering with tensions after a deadly inter-ethnic war.

 

And South Sudan has never recovered from a deadly ethnic competition for power and resources. African refugees fleeing to countries from which refugees recently fled or continue to flee sums up Africa’s unending crisis of governance.

 

Africa will continue to suffer these kinds of power struggles, state failure and breakdown of constitutional order until we take strengthening and depersonalising our institutions as a life and death issue. These institutions anchor constitutional order and democratic process.

 

Strong independent institutions would ensure the continuity of the constitutional order after the president leaves office. As it is, presidents systematically weaken institutions by putting sycophants and incompetent morons in charge. Thus when he leaves office by way of death, ouster or retirement, there is institutional collapse leading to chaos, power struggles and violence. The African Union pretends crises such as the one in Sudan are unfortunate abnormally. However, they are systemic and predictable. Corrupt dictatorships end in chaos and violence.

 

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator.

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Air Peace, capitalism and national interest, By Dakuku Peterside

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Nigerian corporate influence and that of the West continue to collide. The rationale is straightforward: whereas corporate activity in Europe and America is part of their larger local and foreign policy engagement, privately owned enterprises in Nigeria or commercial interests are not part of Nigeria’s foreign policy ecosystem, neither is there a strong culture of government support for privately owned enterprises’ expansion locally and internationally.

The relationship between Nigerian businesses and foreign policy is important to the national interest. When backing domestic Nigerian companies to compete on a worldwide scale, the government should see it as a lever to drive foreign policy, and national strategic interest, promote trade, enhance national security considerations, and minimize distortion in the domestic market as the foreign airlines were doing, boost GDP, create employment opportunities, and optimize corporate returns for the firms.

Admitted nations do not always interfere directly in their companies’ business and commercial dealings, and there are always exceptions. I can cite two areas of exception: military sales by companies because of their strategic implications and are, therefore, part of foreign and diplomatic policy and processes. The second is where the products or routes of a company have implications for foreign policy. Air Peace falls into the second category in the Lagos – London route.

Two events demonstrate an emerging trend that, if not checked, will disincentivize Nigerian firms from competing in the global marketplace. There are other notable examples, but I am using these two examples because they are very recent and ongoing, and they are typological representations of the need for Nigerian government backing and support for local companies that are playing in a very competitive international market dominated by big foreign companies whose governments are using all forms of foreign policies and diplomacy to support and sustain.

The first is Air Peace. It is the only Nigerian-owned aviation company playing globally and checkmating the dominance of foreign airlines. The most recent advance is the commencement of flights on the Lagos – London route. In Nigeria, foreign airlines are well-established and accustomed to a lack of rivalry, yet a free-market economy depends on the existence of competition. Nigeria has significantly larger airline profits per passenger than other comparable African nations. Insufficient competition has resulted in high ticket costs and poor service quality. It is precisely this jinx that Air Peace is attempting to break.

On March 30, 2024, Air Peace reciprocated the lopsided Bilateral Air Service Agreement, BASA, between Nigeria and the United Kingdom when the local airline began direct flight operations from Lagos to Gatwick Airport in London. This elicited several reactions from foreign airlines backed by their various sovereigns because of their strategic interest. A critical response is the commencement of a price war. Before the Air Peace entry, the price of international flight tickets on the Lagos-London route had soared to as much as N3.5 million for the  economy ticket. However, after Air Peace introduced a return economy class ticket priced at N1.2 million, foreign carriers like British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and Qatar Airways reduced their fares significantly to remain competitive.

In a price war, there is little the government can do. In an open-market competitive situation such as this, our government must not act in a manner that suggests it is antagonistic to foreign players and competitors. There must be an appearance of a level playing field. However, government owes Air Peace protection against foreign competitors backed by their home governments. This is in the overall interest of the Nigerian consumer of goods and services. Competition history in the airspace works where the Consumer Protection Authority in the host country is active. This is almost absent in Nigeria and it is a reason why foreign airlines have been arbitrary in pricing their tickets. Nigerian consumers are often at the mercy of these foreign firms who lack any vista of patriotism and are more inclined to protect the national interest of their governments and countries.

It would not be too much to expect Nigerian companies playing globally to benefit from the protection of the Nigerian government to limit influence peddling by foreign-owned companies. The success of Air Peace should enable a more competitive and sustainable market, allowing domestic players to grow their network and propel Nigeria to the forefront of international aviation.

The second is Proforce, a Nigerian-owned military hardware manufacturing firm active in Rwanda, Chad, Mali, Ghana, Niger, Burkina Faso, and South Sudan. Despite the growing capacity of Proforce in military hardware manufacturing, Nigeria entered two lopsided arrangements with two UAE firms to supply military equipment worth billions of dollars , respectively. Both deals are backed by the UAE government but executed by UAE firms.

These deals on a more extensive web are not unconnected with UAE’s national strategic interest. In pursuit of its strategic national interest, India is pushing Indian firms to supply military equipment to Nigeria. The Nigerian defence equipment market has seen weaker indigenous competitors driven out due to the combination of local manufacturers’ lack of competitive capacity and government patronage of Asian, European, and US firms in the defence equipment manufacturing sector. This is a misnomer and needs to be corrected.

Not only should our government be the primary customer of this firm if its products meet international standards, but it should also support and protect it from the harsh competitive realities of a challenging but strategic market directly linked to our national military procurement ecosystem. The ability to produce military hardware locally is significant to our defence strategy.

This firm and similar companies playing in this strategic defence area must be considered strategic and have a considerable place in Nigeria’s foreign policy calculations. Protecting Nigeria’s interests is the primary reason for our engagement in global diplomacy. The government must deliberately balance national interest with capacity and competence in military hardware purchases. It will not be too much to ask these foreign firms to partner with local companies so we can embed the technology transfer advantages.

Our government must create an environment that enables our local companies to compete globally and ply their trades in various countries. It should be part of the government’s overall economic, strategic growth agenda to identify areas or sectors in which Nigerian companies have a competitive advantage, especially in the sub-region and across Africa and support the companies in these sectors to advance and grow to dominate in  the African region with a view to competing globally. Government support in the form of incentives such as competitive grants ,tax credit for consumers ,low-interest capital, patronage, G2G business, operational support, and diplomatic lobbying, amongst others, will alter the competitive landscape. Governments  and key government agencies in the west retain the services of lobbying firms in pursuit of its strategic interest.

Nigerian firms’ competitiveness on a global scale can only be enhanced by the support of the Nigerian government. Foreign policy interests should be a key driver of Nigerian trade agreements. How does the Nigerian government support private companies to grow and compete globally? Is it intentionally mapping out growth areas and creating opportunities for Nigerian firms to maximize their potential? Is the government at the domestic level removing bottlenecks and impediments to private company growth, allowing a level playing field for these companies to compete with international companies?

Why is the government patronising foreign firms against local firms if their products are of similar value? Why are Nigerian consumers left to the hands of international companies in some sectors without the government actively supporting the growth of local firms to compete in those sectors? These questions merit honest answers. Nigerian national interest must be the driving factor for our foreign policies, which must cover the private sector, just as is the case with most developed countries. The new global capitalism is not a product of accident or chance; the government has choreographed and shaped it by using foreign policies to support and protect local firms competing globally. Nigeria must learn to do the same to build a strong economy with more jobs.

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