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Obidients, Buhari And October 1st by Lasisi Olagunju

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I learnt yesterday that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will be visiting Nigeria today. The question I asked the bearer of the great tidings was: When is he going back to his rest in London? He will be arriving Nigeria two days after our urban psychedelic ‘children’ of anger shut down vital parts of Lagos and other cities in celebration of Nigeria’s Independence Day. They are called Obidients, supporters of Mr Peter Obi, urban rave of the moment. They had drums and drummers; they sang and danced; they sweated. Their procession carried the air of a rite of passage. Funerals are rites of passage. That was the ritual the city dancers staged for the regime of pains and alienation. The day the ‘Obidients’ did their street show was exactly two hundred and forty days to the end of the eight-year reign of Tinubu’s leader and role model, President Muhammadu Buhari. And while the angry urban youths were getting set last Saturday to dance round in pains, the president was on the television submitting his report card to Nigerians. He marked his own script and remarked that he “was called to serve”; that he “saw an opportunity to create a better Nigeria” and that he had done exactly that “with the support of Nigerians.” Get it very clear: Buhari in his October 1, 2022 address to the nation said that in seven years plus, he had created “a better Nigeria” for all of us. That affirmation of excellence in service delivery caught my ears and it was my main takeaway from the president’s 47-paragraph broadcast. The beneficiaries of His Excellency’s excellent piloting of our plane should include the droves parachuting out of the country.

Between May 29, 2015 when he was sworn in and May 29, 2023 when he will leave us with heavy hearts, there are 2,922 days. This means that as of the time he submitted his self-prepared assessment report last Saturday, this president had spent 2,682 out of his total days in our presidency. He has 238 days left, from today. The Buhari government has always been a nightmare impudently dressed like a daydream. Everything has a history. Even words do. Check your dictionary for the 700-year journey of ‘nightmare’ to the present. What can you find? The Oxford English Dictionary says the word ‘nightmare’ was first used around 1300 and it referred to “a female spirit or monster” which settled on and produced “a feeling of suffocation in a sleeping person or animal.” Nigerians are actually a sleepy lot; and suffocation best describes what Nigeria offers them as oxygen. Suffocation is the death that killed fishes washed ashore. There are many of such corpses on the wet sands of Nigeria.

The president who marked his own script on Saturday beat his chest in self-praise. Chinua Achebe’s lizard did that too after it jumped down unhurt from the great Iroko tree. The president may enjoy his reign but it is not funny for Nigerians. He was truly “called to serve” by, especially, Tinubu, and supported by 15 million out of Nigeria’s 200 million citizens. I excuse the genuinely innocent voter who cast their lot with Buhari without any agenda of the self. Where I come from, you teach a child how to climb, you don’t teach him how to come down; we help people to get jobs and then exit their space and watch them perform. Our ancestors tell us that Alágemo’s duty ends with the siring of his kids; it is left for the birthed to learn how to dance and to dance well. Nigeria’s sick baby was handed over to the paediatrician in the Villa seven years, four months ago. Right in the hands of the carer, the child has died. A dollar exchanged for N197 on May 15, 2015; on Friday, the last day of last month, 740 Nigerian naira bought a US dollar. The house has fallen. Like in Shakespeare’s Richard III, the dream across here is of “bloody deeds and death: fainting, despair; despairing…” Today, nightmare means just two words: bad dream. And every night, every Nigerian goes to bed bristling with the fears of a night that may have no dawn. You must be contending with these fears too – unless you sleep in the Villa in Abuja or in a royal infirmary in London.

On Saturday, the captain of this ship read a smooth speech of promise made, promise kept. He sincerely thought he had berthed at a shore made of gold. His speechwriters have used their genius to sink pleasant babanriga on the neck of the unpleasant. They sing sting for the people to chant after them. Has Buhari actually created a better Nigeria? He believed he has; Nigerians outside his government will say no, he hasn’t. And they will use their lives of misery and want to convict him. He danced zigzag while singing his own praise. He admitted, blithely, that Nigeria was confronting “current economic challenges such as debt burden, growing inflation, living standards and increasing unemployment accentuated by our growing youthful population” but explained everything away as “globally induced.” He spoke about security and insecurity. He thought he passed here too. But victims of his failure will not agree. They will say killings and attacks have become a canvass of firestorms over Nigeria, rupturing life and living. People get killed or abducted or maimed every second. Indeed, in the very week the president was beating his chest, bandits rained terror and tears.

We may have lost interest in counting the dead, even in burying them, but the United States-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) keeps track of these killings and attacks. I quote its update for one of the weeks of last month: “September 17: Kidnappers abducted five in Emuoha, Rivers. September 17: Nigerian troops killed one civilian in Orsu, Imo. September 17: Nigerian troops killed one civilian in Ihiala, Anambra. September 17: The Nigerian Air Force killed twenty-two bandits in Shinkafi, Zamfara. September 17: Police killed two kidnappers in Odukpani, Cross River. September 17: Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) killed two Boko Haram commanders in Bama, Borno. September 18: Bandits killed four and abducted fifteen in Lapai, Niger State. September 18: Herders killed three in Guma, Benue. September 20: Kidnappers abducted two in Obio/Adkpor, Rivers. September 20: Kidnappers abducted two in Emuoha, Rivers. September 21: Suspected herders killed fourteen in Logo, Benue. September 21: Police officers killed one civilian in Jos North, Plateau.  September 22: Three were abducted during communal violence in Makurdi, Benue. September 22: Police officers killed one kidnapper in Uhunmwonde, Edo.  September 22: Kidnappers abducted three police officers in Ewekoro, Ogun. September 22: Bandits kidnapped two in Kajuru, Kaduna. September 22: The Nigerian Air Force killed forty bandits in Zurmi, Zamfara. September 22: Gunmen killed one police officer in Akoko-Edo, Edo. September 23: Bandits killed eighteen at a mosque in Bukkuyum, Zamfara.” You heard what Pastor Enoch Adeboye said yesterday, Sunday? Kidnappers now go into palaces to abduct kings. It is well. The president has done well.

The bleeding is severe; it won’t stop unless the cause is tackled. The ‘Obidients’ think the symbol of their anger could do it if he becomes our president. I smiled seeing their huge crowds in cities on October 1; they copied our security forces with shows-of-force. But street rallies of a hundred million urban dudes won’t win elections. Even if they all vote, they may win the vote but they will lose the count. If I were one of them, and in their strategy room, I would pin on the wall Joseph Stalin’s words of electoral warning: “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election; the people who count the votes do.” If you know these Obidients, please tell them to dismount their excitable saddles and listen to those words. They should establish structures in all of Nigeria’s 176,974 polling units, 8,809 electoral wards and 774 local government areas. The time and energy they spend in ostentatious display of figures can be more productively used to prepare for the day of battle. It is 144 days to the presidential election. Their main opponents, Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, are in every unit, every ward, every local government area, oiling their machines.

The English man says a word to the wise is enough. We don’t give a whole word as counsel where I come from. We give half. I should, therefore, let the Obidients be – at least for now. I should even leave Buhari with his toothpick and his rocking chair. His masquerade has 238 more days to do what he does with the costume and the cane in his hand. We cannot stop him from dancing towards the fragrance of retirement and from his repair to the sanctuary of opulence. But some people hatched the 2015 snake and reinforced the serpent in 2019. They now routinely run abroad to catch fresh air. They return to hit our streets with the claim of their turn to wear the costume and wield the cane. They sold sand as brown sugar, now they demand we should pay them, not with stones, but with the glorious crown of our future. But our elders are saying that whoever birthed the monster is the mother and she it is that must girdle the baby (eni t’ó bá bí omo òràn ni yóò pòn-ón). So, Tinubu and his ‘change’ agents may ‘japa’ to London – and even to Iceland (where the sun never sets), they will always be asked, whenever they come back here, to share in Buhari’s legacies.

The presidential election will hold in four months, three weeks’ time. We are already dancing towards our next mistake. The vultures are circling the carrion of the incumbent’s leftover. Sadly, the people who are supposed to lead the charge are excusing the rot. Everyone is angling for the next elections and the personal advantages the polls are likely to confer. “The only way to reveal the true nature of power is through the cries and the stories of the oppressed people who are the victims of that power,” said Yong-Bok Kim in his ‘Messianic Politics.’ But those cries and stories reveal nothing here. We reinforce failure with a revalidation of bad terms. The inheritors of Nigeria’s widow have managed so well to keep their crowd. There is the viral WhatsApp message which speaks to this: “They can’t pay ASUU because they (lecturers) did not work for six months, yet they have been paying refinery workers for over ten years now even when they haven’t refined a drop of oil. On top of that, they still promote the workers to the next level even with the refineries being shut.” I saw a version of it on Omoyele Sowore’s Facebook wall; I saw it on a few others’. The author is thus not clearly known but he or she did not drop the message and just walk away. The person remembered to wonder: “And you still see people queue behind this mind-blowing fraud.” And I quietly add: They are doing more than queuing; they are eating their tormentors’ poo. This has no class; professors who got their pay last in January are mounting campaigns for them too – malaria corpses are voting for mosquitoes; they are deploying excuses – ethnic, religious.

 

Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

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In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

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Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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