Strictly Personal
Euro-Dollar Fluctuations: Is the Moroccan Dirham a Victim of Imported Inflation? By Hachimi Alaoui
Published
2 years agoon
The global economy is witnessing an unprecedented motion in the value of the euro, as its exchange rate has reached levels not seen since the early years of its existence as Europe’s common currency. After a prolonged depreciation in the euro’s value, the euro/dollar exchange rate has almost reached parity.
It happened faster than expected, and the movement of the exchange rate between these two currencies has been non linear. The euro’s fall below parity against the dollar, however, merely reflects a widening gap in the interest rates between the two shores of the Atlantic. While the Federal Reserve has implemented aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation, the European Central Bank continues to opt for a more cautious monetary policy approach.
As a result, a significant interest rate difference between the Euro-Zone and the US, which has sparked larger capital inflows to the US and massive purchase of the dollars, as the dollar has become more attractive to investors.
The latest reforms are not enough
In a global context, however, let’s not forget that the Moroccan dirham is pegged to an anchor basket of these two currencies that reflect the relative weight of our trading partners. In 2015, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), Morocco’s central bank, and the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance updated“ the Dirham’s basket weighting to reflect the current structure of foreign trade of our country.”
Under the updated basket, the Moroccan currency’s basket weighting is “set at 60% for the Euro and 40% for the US dollar,” notes the website of the finance ministry. But this range limits the ability of Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain the dirham around a predetermined central value.
The range has only been widened twice, in January 2018 and then in March 2020. In January, 2018, after years of a (+-) 0.3% range around the reference price, the dirham exchange rate began to evolve to a wider band of (+-)2.5%. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 then prompted Moroccan monetary authorities to further widen the fluctuation range of the nominal effective exchange rate, thus increasing to (+-) 5% around a central value.
Despite this progressive process concerning the exchange rate’s flexibility, the fluctuations of the dirham bring out a basket effect that continues to dominate the liquidity effect of market drivers. The basket effect comes from the impact of the fluctuation of the euro/dollar exchange rate on the dirham, and the difference between this impact and the evolution of the reference price of the dirham is equal to the market effect.
While the dirham would appreciate against the dollar and depreciate relative to the euro when the euro/dollar exchange rate appreciates, it would depreciate against the dollar and appreciate against the euro, when the euro/dollar depreciates.
The Moroccan exchange rate regime thus allows the current appreciation of the dollar/euro to appreciate the dollar/dirham and depreciate the euro/dirham rates. Nevertheless, these fluctuating values of the dirham occur at the expense of Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves, which remain the primary buffer against external shocks.
Making the Dirham more resilient to external shocks
Given the dirham’s vulnerability to the relative values of the euro and dollar, switching Morocco’s monetary policy towards adopting a targeted inflation rate, announced by Bank Al-Maghrib, could lead to a stronger market effect. Such a monetary policy framework can be implemented with a floating, or at least, a more flexible, exchange rate.
However, this transition would amplify the exchange passthrough to inflation, defined as the degree to which Morocco’s domestic prices react to a fluctuating value of the dirham, and induce persistent supply shocks, namely cost-push shocks. Nevertheless, more market discipline would follow and the exchange rate, rather than international reserves, would serve as the main shock buffer.
The redesign of Morocco’s monetary policy framework becomes even more critical in the face of the increase of oil prices. Morocco has long benefited from a negative correlation between oil prices and the US Dollar. The resulting compensatory effect made it possible to mitigate, albeit partially, the increase in the energy bill paid in dollars.
But this compensatory effect has faded in recent months due to the rise in the value of the dollar against the dirham, combined with a staggering increase in the cost of energy inputs. Taken together, these two outcomes have amplified the inflationary pressures that households are experiencing, negatively affecting the Moroccan economy.
Under such conditions, Bank Al-Maghrib will need to provide more support to the dirham at the detriment of foreign exchange reserves. However, current fixed-exchange rate behavior fails to support the Moroccan economy. By strengthening the foreign value of the Moroccan currency, the country maintains the same level of inefficient domestic absorption, which in turn leads to supporting harmful consumption of energy and the bad habit of using imported goods.
Moroccan households currently face a volatile exchange rate and energy shocks. And rather than consuming our foreign reserves to maintain the same rate of energy utilization, an awareness of our consumption habits is probably more suitable. The fact is that pegging the dirham requires selling central bank’s reserves whenever there is an exchange rate pressure that generates costs associated with the continued use of foreign reserves as an external shocks absorber.
On the whole, the support that Bank Al-Maghrib provides to the dirham helps maintain relatively high levels of an unfavorable and unproductive use of energy and raw materials. If these imported inputs are expensive and hinder economic growth, Moroccans need to be informed.
Greater flexibility of the dirham and the resulting depreciation of its exchange rate would reduce domestic energy consumption, whereas a fixed exchange rate simply fails to readjust our consumption habits.
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Strictly Personal
Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh
Published
2 months agoon
November 27, 2024In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.
The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.
Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.
Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.
These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.
A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.
The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.
This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.
The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.
Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.
The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.
As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.
Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews
Strictly Personal
Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.
Published
2 months agoon
November 20, 2024The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.
Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.
We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.
The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.
Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.
A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.
Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.
The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.
A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.
Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.
That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.
The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.
In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.
Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.
Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.
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