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Nigeria’s state of business will shortly improve— Central Bank Report

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The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Business Expectations study has revealed that business owners are confident that business conditions will improve in August 2024 and the following six months.

The optimism score for business owners was 7.6 points, indicating stronger performance in August. Business optimism was 19.3 points for the next three months and 30.7 for the next six months, according to the apex bank.

“Similarly, the outlook for next month, next three months, and next six months all indicated optimism with indices of 7.6, 19.3, and 30.7 points, respectively,” the report read.

It said Mining, Quarrying, Electricity, Gas & Water Supply, Agriculture, Market Services, Manufacturing, and Non-Market Services will boost macroeconomic optimism.

It stated, “The expected drivers for the optimism on the macroeconomy in the next month are Mining, Quarrying, Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (35.3 points), Agriculture (9.9 points), Market Services (7.8 points), Manufacturing (6.3 points), and Non-Market Services (4.8 points).

“Respondents indicated optimism on the overall business outlook in July 2024, as the business conditions in Nigeria are expected to improve. This optimism is driven by the opinion of respondents from the Agriculture Sector.

“Respondents’ outlook for the next month, next 3 months, and next 6 months all indicated optimism. The positive outlook in the volume of business activities of the firms in the next month implied improved prospects for employment in the same period. The sector with the highest prospect for employment is the Agriculture Sector, followed by the Industry and Services sectors.

“The respondent firms opined that insecurity was the major factor constraining the business activity in July 2024. Other constraining factors are high interest rate, insufficient power supply, and high/multiple taxes. Respondent firms expect the exchange rate to depreciate in all review periods except the next six months. However, they expect the borrowing rate to rise in all the periods under

review. Respondents also opined that the current inflation rate of 34.19 is too high.”

The total confidence index in July 2024 was 0.1 points, a decrease of 3.0 points from the confidence levels attained in June 2024.

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Nigeria obtains $600 million international loans for agriculture

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To promote food security and rural development, the Nigerian government, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, has obtained more than $600 million in foreign agricultural loans in 2024.

A $134 million credit facility from the African Development Bank was acquired by the government to increase seed and grain production across the country, according to information on the ministry’s website.

“The Federal Government has secured a loan facility of $134m from the African Development Bank to help farmers boost seeds and grain production in the country,” the statement read.

The fund now stands at $634 million after the Federal Government obtained a $500 million loan from the World Bank under the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project.

The project will encourage social and economic growth in rural regions while enhancing access to hospitals, schools, and agricultural centres. Its goal is to close the gap between rural communities and bigger markets.

According to Aliyu Abdullahi, Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, states must establish operational road funds and road agencies to receive RAAMP monies.

Aminu Mohammed, the RAAMP National Coordinator, emphasised the project’s emphasis on rural infrastructure:

“The primary objective of RAAMP is to improve rural roads and trading infrastructure to boost food production,” Mohammed said.

The initiative, already underway in 19 states, will distribute funds competitively according to socioeconomic factors, implementation preparedness, and state co-finance pledges.

By creating Rural Access Road Authorities, the project also aims to increase the representation of women in the transportation industry.

The World Bank will contribute $500 million in the second phase of RAAMP, with the federal and state governments contributing $100 million in matching funds.

Farmers throughout Nigeria have criticised the Federal Government’s agricultural initiatives as being selective and badly executed, despite its attempts to increase agrarian activity through mechanisation, irrigation infrastructure, and in certain circumstances, financial support.

Many contend that the programs mostly help well-connected people, leaving off smallholder farmers, who are the foundation of Nigeria’s agriculture industry.

La’ah Dauda, a farmer from Kaduna, called the initiatives “very selective,” adding that even the data is scarce. They only raise awareness in areas that they find appealing. If others are left out, how can you recruit new farmers?

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Nigeria’s November inflation rate hits 34.60%

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According to figures released by the statistics office on Monday, Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the third consecutive month in November, rising from 33.88% in October to 34.60% in annual terms.

Following a brief period of respite in July and August, the naira devaluation and a string of rises in the price of petroleum have been blamed for the inflation spike that started in September.

The most populous nation in Africa is experiencing the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades as a result of these circumstances.

The central bank has hiked interest rates six times this year, for a total rise of 875 basis points, to counteract increasing inflation.

Due to price increases for basics such as rice, maize, bread, potatoes, and cooking oil, food inflation increased to 39.93% year over year in November from 39.16% the month before, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

In an attempt to boost economic development and strengthen public finances, President Bola Tinubu devalued the naira and reduced subsidies, which caused inflation to spike in the second half of last year.

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