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Private sector concerned as Nigeria’s central bank raises interest rate to 26.25% 

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The decision of Nigeria’s central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise the country’s benchmark interest rate has alarmed members of the organized private sector and economists alike, some of whom believe it will severely impair the ability of business operators to repay their debts.

The decision of the committee was declared by Olayemi Cardoso, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and chairman of the MPC, after the latter’s 295th meeting on Tuesday.

The interest rate was increased by 150 basis points by the MPC, from 24.74% to 26.25%. The benchmark interest rate increased for the third time this year on Tuesday with the MPR boost.

The policymakers raised the MPR by 750 basis points since the MPC reconvened in February. In February, the MPR jumped from 18.55% to 22.75%, a 400 basis point rise. In March, it was raised by 200 basis points to 24.75%.

Cardoso said, “The key focus of the MPC at this meeting remained to achieve price stability by effectively using tools available to the monetary authority to rein in inflation. Members observed that while year-on-year headline inflation in April 2024 rose moderately, the month-on-month measures of headline, food and core all declined significantly. This follows a decline (month-on-month) of headline and food measures in March 2024, suggesting that the recent tight monetary policy stance of the Bank is beginning to yield the desired outcomes.”

Cardoso added, “For the first time since October, we have seen a relatively significant moderation in the rate of increase and that is working. I believe very strongly that the tool that the central bank is using is working. I have said it before, there is no magic wand, these are things that need to take their own time. I’m confident and the figures show that we are beginning to get some relief and I believe in a couple of more months, we will see some positive reports on the effects of what the CBN is doing.”

Cardoso defended the decision to raise the MPR once more during a press conference on Tuesday following the MPC meeting. In the face of an uncertain economic environment, the MPC has remained hawkish in its approach to combating inflation.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 33.69% in April. As compared to the headline inflation rate for March 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics reports that the headline inflation rate for April 2024 increased by 0.49 percentage points.

According to the NBS, the headline inflation rate increased by 11.47 percentage points year over year from the 22.22% rate reported in April 2023. In April 2024, food inflation was 40.53%. Cardoso stated that the MPC has connected the ongoing naira volatility to the principles of the free market.

“Members further observed the recent volatility in the foreign exchange market attributing this to seasonal demand, a reflection of the interplay between demand and supply of a freely functioning market system. The committee also noticed the marginal increase in the foreign reserve between March and April 2024,” he said.

Segun Kuti-George, National Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, denounced the Interest Rate Increase by MPC. At a time when many firms were depending on loans to operate, Kuti-George argued it was callous to keep rising interest rates.

He said, “That is the only thing they know. The only thing they know is to increase the interest rate. As long as the industrial sector cannot access cheap funds, we are joking. We cannot be talking about economic development.”

In addition, Gabriel Idahosa, the president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who disagreed with the rate hike, charged that the CBN was employing the incorrect measure to combat inflation.

Idahosa said, “The CBN is like a farmer that does not have any other tool. So, they are stuck with one tool. We just came out of a consultation session and this was the issue. The CBN is driving a metric that is not related to the problem.

“The problem is the cost of production. It has nothing to do with interest rates. It is not advisable to keep raising the interest rates, but they have run out of ideas and they don’t want to be seen to do nothing.”

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion multi-sector investments from AfDB— Official

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion from the African Development Bank (AfDB), comprising $4.9 billion in public and private sector initiatives.

AfDB Director-General of the West Africa Region, Lamin Barrow, said the bank’s Nigeria funding approvals total $10.9 billion since it started operations.

Barrow made the revelation at the Second Interactive Session and Workshop on Developing Bankable Business Proposals/Business Plans for Youths in Agriculture in Abuja on Monday.

It was part of the bank’s 60th anniversary celebrations with stakeholders. Nigeria is the AfDB’s largest shareholder, and the bank’s relationship with it has grown, Barrow said.

The AfDB invests in Nigeria’s energy, power, transport, water, and sanitation infrastructure.

“Over the last 60 years, the Bank has grown into a trusted partner and the continent’s premier development financial institution.

“Our cooperation with Nigeria has expanded over the years, especially considering that Nigeria is the largest shareholder.

“Since it started operations in the country, cumulative financing approvals have reached 10.9 billion dollars and our portfolio currently stands at 4.9 billion dollars supporting projects in the public and private sectors,” he said.

After taking office eight years ago, AfDB President Dr Akinwumi Adesina prioritized the High 5—Power, Feed, Industrialize, Integrate, and Improve Africa’s quality of life—Barrow added. He said these were accelerators for achieving the SDGs and Agenda 2063 ambitions. The projects and programs supported during this time have reportedly affected over 400 million individuals.

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Analysts expect Egypt’s economy to rise 4.0% in 2024/25

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A recent study that sampled seventeen economists by Reuters has predicted slower economic growth for Egypt in April after a $8 billion IMF accord in March.

The median projection for GDP growth in the fiscal year starting July 1 was 4%, down from 4.35% in April and 4.15% in January.

The poll predicted the GDP grew 2.9% in the fiscal year ending June 30. This is below their April and January predictions of 3% and 3.5%. Poll: 2025/26 growth should rise to 4.99%.

After the IMF agreement, Capital Economics’ James Swanston predicted slower growth due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and a weaker pound.

“The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year, but there are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY2025/26 onward,” Swanston said.

Egyptian tourism and Suez Canal revenue have slowed due to the Gaza crisis, which has cut Egypt’s foreign revenue by more than half.

Egypt’s planning ministry predicted 4.2% growth in 2024/25 on June 2. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to fall to 49.50 per dollar by June 2025 and 52.50 by June 2026.

Before dropping it in March 2024, the central bank kept the pound at 30.85 per dollar. It’s roughly 48.40 per dollar.

The survey forecast 20.5% headline inflation in 2024/25 and 12.05% in 2025/26. In June, inflation dropped to 27.5% from a record high of 38.0% in September, exceeding the central bank’s objective of 5%-9%.

The analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to drop to 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

Foreign money shortages have slowed the Egyptian economy. However, a $24 billion real estate transaction with the UAE in late February, a significant currency devaluation, and a $8 billion IMF accord in early March have mitigated that.

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