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Demand for Namibian assets surges following more oil discoveries

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Interest in Namibian assets has surged since more crude oil reserves were discovered there; as a result, an index fund that tracks local government bonds is about to see its largest annual increase ever.

On both the Namibian Stock Exchange and in South Africa, there is an exchange-traded fund that tracks local government bonds. Its value has gone up over 20% in U.S. dollars since Galp, based in Portugal, found out in April that the Mopane field could hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil.

There have been at least 12 other big oil companies interested since then.

With a return of almost 12% in U.S. dollars, the fund is on track for its best year ever. An ETF that follows the closely watched JPMorgan developing markets bonds index has gained 3.6% so far this year.

Since the finding, yields on local sovereign bonds have dropped even more. Since April, yields on bonds due in 2037 have dropped about 150 basis points, and yields on papers due in 2050 have dropped around 200 basis points.

“Most of the bonds issued are held by Namibian pension funds, but we are seeing some foreign buying now. We have seen massive yield compression … since the oil discoveries were first announced,” said Rowland Brown, co-founder of Cirrus Capital based in Windhoek.

Brown also said that Namibian government bonds were still settled on paper, so foreign investors were looking to the ETF to get more invested in the resource-rich country.

Major international energy companies are interested in the southwest African country because of several big finds along its coast in the past few years, even though the country hasn’t produced any oil or gas yet. Topaz Energy and Shell say they plan to start producing in 2029 or 2030.

The local stock market index has grown by more than 19% so far this year in U.S. dollars, while MSCI’s index of developing markets stocks has only grown by 7.5%.

The Namibian dollar has gotten stronger against the US dollar by 4.5% this year, ending a four-year losing run. Since December 2019, LSEG data shows that total central bank reserves have gone up by nearly $1 billion.

People will be interested in any changes to Namibia’s economic policy after the end-of-the-year presidential election. This is because the country has a lot of economic promise after finding oil.

 

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Ezz al-Arab appointed as Egypt’s CIB chairman

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Commercial International Bank (CIB), Egypt’s largest private bank, announced on Monday that long-time chairman and previous CEO Hisham Ezz al-Arab will become CEO.

Neveen Sabbour, a board member, will take over as chairman, according to a statement. Hussein Abaza, the outgoing CEO, will be replaced by Ezz al-Arab, who will hold the role for three years.

In Egypt, the market share held by traditional banks is expected to reach US$35.84 billion. As more clients choose online and mobile banking options, Egypt’s banking industry is seeing an increase in digital banking services.

The new appointments are part of “to lead the bank’s multifaceted business transformation and continue its programme to support recognised potential future leaders,” the announcement stated.

Ezz al-Arab, chairman and managing director since 2002, resigned in October 2020 due to “compliance concerns” from the national bank.

In August 2022, a year before his tenure expired, central bank governor Tarek Amer resigned due to a currency crisis. Ezz al-Arab was requested to rejoin as chairman in December.

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Nigerian inflation falls again, drops to 32.15% in August

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Nigeria’s August inflation rate declined for a second month to 32.15% from 33.40% in July, the statistics office reported on Monday. This comes after the month of July saw the first decrease in consumer inflation in Africa’s largest country in almost a year.

Analysts predict August’s slowdown may be short-lived after two gas price increases this month enraged citizens facing the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

The removal of a decades-old gasoline subsidy, devaluation of the naira currency, and increase in energy costs by President Bola Tinubu have raised prices.

Reforms attempt to boost economic growth and public finances.

The central bank’s next interest rate decision next week may be influenced by inflation figures. The apex bank has hiked rates four times this year to curb inflation, and economists say July’s hike may be the last.

Further petrol price increases and northern flooding that swept away crops could raise food prices.

“On the whole, disinflation should continue with the headline rate falling below 30% by year-end, but upside risks remain,” Capital Economics Africa analyst David Omojomolo wrote.

He claimed rising petrol prices might “slow the pace of the disinflation process” and that the central bank would not drop rates until early next year.

Food inflation dropped from 39.53% to 37.52% in August. It remained the greatest inflation driver in August.

 

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