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Demand for Namibian assets surges following more oil discoveries

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Interest in Namibian assets has surged since more crude oil reserves were discovered there; as a result, an index fund that tracks local government bonds is about to see its largest annual increase ever.

On both the Namibian Stock Exchange and in South Africa, there is an exchange-traded fund that tracks local government bonds. Its value has gone up over 20% in U.S. dollars since Galp, based in Portugal, found out in April that the Mopane field could hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil.

There have been at least 12 other big oil companies interested since then.

With a return of almost 12% in U.S. dollars, the fund is on track for its best year ever. An ETF that follows the closely watched JPMorgan developing markets bonds index has gained 3.6% so far this year.

Since the finding, yields on local sovereign bonds have dropped even more. Since April, yields on bonds due in 2037 have dropped about 150 basis points, and yields on papers due in 2050 have dropped around 200 basis points.

“Most of the bonds issued are held by Namibian pension funds, but we are seeing some foreign buying now. We have seen massive yield compression … since the oil discoveries were first announced,” said Rowland Brown, co-founder of Cirrus Capital based in Windhoek.

Brown also said that Namibian government bonds were still settled on paper, so foreign investors were looking to the ETF to get more invested in the resource-rich country.

Major international energy companies are interested in the southwest African country because of several big finds along its coast in the past few years, even though the country hasn’t produced any oil or gas yet. Topaz Energy and Shell say they plan to start producing in 2029 or 2030.

The local stock market index has grown by more than 19% so far this year in U.S. dollars, while MSCI’s index of developing markets stocks has only grown by 7.5%.

The Namibian dollar has gotten stronger against the US dollar by 4.5% this year, ending a four-year losing run. Since December 2019, LSEG data shows that total central bank reserves have gone up by nearly $1 billion.

People will be interested in any changes to Namibia’s economic policy after the end-of-the-year presidential election. This is because the country has a lot of economic promise after finding oil.

 

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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