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IMF predicts Nigeria’s inflation to drop to 18% by 2026

Published

3 months ago

April 17, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria will drop to 23 per cent in 2025 with a further drop to 18 per cent by 2026 from the current rate of 33.20 per cent.

The IMF, which made the protection in its Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C, said Nigeria was moving in the right direction with economic reforms including exchange rate reforms which it believes contributed to the surge in inflation rate in March.

The report endorsed by
Division Chief, IMF Research Department, Daniel Leigh, noted that with oil prices being on the rise in part due to geopolitical tensions and services, inflation had remained stubbornly high in many countries, including Nigeria.

“We see inflation in (in Nigeria) declining to 23 per cent next year and then 18 per cent in 2026,” Leigh said.

“Growth in Nigeria, steady but actually rising this year, from 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 percent this year. We have seen an expansion from the recovery in the oil sector, with a better security situation and also improved agriculture, benefiting from the better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming.

“So, there’s a broad based increase also in the financial sector, in the IT sector. Inflation, yes, it has increased.

“Part of this reflects the reforms, the exchange rate and its pass through into other goods from imports to other goods.

“So, this explains also why we revised up our inflation projection for this year to 26 per cent. But with the tight monetary policies and that interest rate increase, significant interest rate increases during February and March,” he added.

On his part, head of IMF Research Department, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, said Nigeria has six to nine per cent inflation target which has been missed by over a decade, but he however, believes bringing inflation back to target should remain the priority for the country.

“There are stark divergences also between countries that call for careful calibration of monetary policy.

“Going forward, policymakers should prioritize measures that help preserve or even enhance the resilience of the global economy.

“A key priority is to rebuild fiscal buffers, especially in an environment with high real interest rates, modest growth, and elevated debts.

Unfortunately planned fiscal adjustments are often insufficient and could be derailed further given the record number of elections this year,” Gourinchas said.

Related Topics:Economy Featured IMF inflation Nigeria

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion multi-sector investments from AfDB— Official

Published

4 days ago

July 23, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

Nigeria has received $10.9 billion from the African Development Bank (AfDB), comprising $4.9 billion in public and private sector initiatives.

AfDB Director-General of the West Africa Region, Lamin Barrow, said the bank’s Nigeria funding approvals total $10.9 billion since it started operations.

Barrow made the revelation at the Second Interactive Session and Workshop on Developing Bankable Business Proposals/Business Plans for Youths in Agriculture in Abuja on Monday.

It was part of the bank’s 60th anniversary celebrations with stakeholders. Nigeria is the AfDB’s largest shareholder, and the bank’s relationship with it has grown, Barrow said.

The AfDB invests in Nigeria’s energy, power, transport, water, and sanitation infrastructure.

“Over the last 60 years, the Bank has grown into a trusted partner and the continent’s premier development financial institution.

“Our cooperation with Nigeria has expanded over the years, especially considering that Nigeria is the largest shareholder.

“Since it started operations in the country, cumulative financing approvals have reached 10.9 billion dollars and our portfolio currently stands at 4.9 billion dollars supporting projects in the public and private sectors,” he said.

After taking office eight years ago, AfDB President Dr Akinwumi Adesina prioritized the High 5—Power, Feed, Industrialize, Integrate, and Improve Africa’s quality of life—Barrow added. He said these were accelerators for achieving the SDGs and Agenda 2063 ambitions. The projects and programs supported during this time have reportedly affected over 400 million individuals.

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Analysts expect Egypt’s economy to rise 4.0% in 2024/25

Published

4 days ago

July 23, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

A recent study that sampled seventeen economists by Reuters has predicted slower economic growth for Egypt in April after a $8 billion IMF accord in March.

The median projection for GDP growth in the fiscal year starting July 1 was 4%, down from 4.35% in April and 4.15% in January.

The poll predicted the GDP grew 2.9% in the fiscal year ending June 30. This is below their April and January predictions of 3% and 3.5%. Poll: 2025/26 growth should rise to 4.99%.

After the IMF agreement, Capital Economics’ James Swanston predicted slower growth due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and a weaker pound.

“The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year, but there are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY2025/26 onward,” Swanston said.

Egyptian tourism and Suez Canal revenue have slowed due to the Gaza crisis, which has cut Egypt’s foreign revenue by more than half.

Egypt’s planning ministry predicted 4.2% growth in 2024/25 on June 2. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to fall to 49.50 per dollar by June 2025 and 52.50 by June 2026.

Before dropping it in March 2024, the central bank kept the pound at 30.85 per dollar. It’s roughly 48.40 per dollar.

The survey forecast 20.5% headline inflation in 2024/25 and 12.05% in 2025/26. In June, inflation dropped to 27.5% from a record high of 38.0% in September, exceeding the central bank’s objective of 5%-9%.

The analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to drop to 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

Foreign money shortages have slowed the Egyptian economy. However, a $24 billion real estate transaction with the UAE in late February, a significant currency devaluation, and a $8 billion IMF accord in early March have mitigated that.