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Ethiopia might devalue currency to secure IMF loan

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Ethiopia may need to decide on a big currency devaluation soon to get a rescue loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In December, East Africa’s most populous country went bankrupt, making it the third African country in as many years to not pay its debts. The country already had high inflation.

Ethiopia hasn’t gotten any money from the IMF since 2020, and its last loan deal with the fund fell through in 2021. In late 2022, the federal government and a rebellious regional authority made a deal to end a cold war that had been going on for two years.

Although the IMF has not said that currency reform is necessary for its backing, it however maintained that progress was made during its most recent visit. However, the Fund usually favours flexible, market-determined exchange rates. Ethiopia has requested $3.5 billion of support from the IMF, sources told Reuters last year.

The birr currently trades at between 117 and 120 per dollar on the black market, which is more than double the official rate of about 56.7. This is because there is a constant lack of foreign cash and the exchange rate is tightly controlled.

“It seems that the Ethiopian authorities have found accepting the demands of the IMF hard,” said Abdulmenan Mohammed, an Ethiopian economic analyst based in Britain.

“The Ethiopian authorities are worried about the devaluation of the birr, (which) would have serious negative economic repercussions, including soaring inflation… and surging foreign currency denominated debts in terms of birr.”

Early in 2021, Ethiopia asked the G20’s Common Framework to restructure its debt. This was set up in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to include new creditor countries like China and India. Other African countries like Tunisia and Zambia also suffered a similar fate with their foreign debt at the time.

As of the end of March, Ethiopia’s foreign debt totals $28.2 billion. According to Boston University’s Chinese Loans to Africa Database, the country’s biggest bilateral creditor, China, agreed to stop collecting its debts in August 2023. From 2006 to 2022, China promised to give the country $14 billion.

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Nigeria gets $600 million investment from Danish firm Moller-Maersk

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Nigeria’s presidency said on Sunday that President Bola Tinubu had secured an investment of $600 million from Danish shipping and logistics company, A.P. Moller-Maersk.

Nigerian ports will get more space for container shipping services as part of the deal by improving their facilities.

A presidential spokesman, Ajuri Ngelale, said in a statement that the decision was made by Mr Robert Maersk Uggla, Chairman of A.P. Moller-Maersk, during a meeting with President Tinubu on Sunday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the World Economic Forum Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development.

”We have seen a significant opportunity for Nigeria to cater for larger container ships. Historically, most of the West African coasts are already served by smaller ships. Currently, we see an opportunity to deploy larger ships to Nigeria. To achieve this, we need to expand the port infrastructure, especially in Lagos, where we need a bigger hub for logistics services. The growth potential is hard to quantify,” Ngelale quoted Uggla as saying.

”We believe in Nigeria, and we will invest $600 million in existing facilities and make the ports accommodating for bigger ships.”

Tinubu, for his part, thanked the company for what it did for the Nigerian economy.

“We appreciate your business and the contribution you have made and continue to make to our country’s economy over time. We do not take our partners for granted. A bet on Nigeria is a winning bet. It is also a bet that rewards beyond what is obtainable elsewhere,” Tinubu said.

“More investment opportunities are available, and my government has worked on various reforms to encourage investments. We need to encourage more opportunities for revenue expansion and minimize trans-shipments from larger ships to smaller ships.”

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Nigeria: Bureaux De Change operators to harmonise retail FX market

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Amidst the volatility around the Nigerian currency and its foreign exchange market, the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators in the country has revealed plans for a unified retail end of the foreign currency market.

 

In a statement released on Saturday, the association said that the move would reduce volatility and improve regulatory compliance in that market sector.

 

The lack of dollars has had a huge effect on Nigeria. In the past few weeks, the naira has hit all-time lows, and the central bank has had to weaken the currency twice in less than a year and launched campaigns against currency racketeers as well as other policies like banning Binance and other crypto companies’ online sites through the Nigerian Communications Commission to stop what the government saw as ongoing manipulation of the foreign exchange market and the illegal flow of money.

 

Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, said that the organization was putting plans in place to bring together market operators from different backgrounds. These plans included starting state groups to coordinate, integrate, and run a single market structure.

 

Gwadebe said that all BDC owners in Nigerian markets would be taken care of when it was done. He also talked about plans to improve its Business Process Platform, which used to be known as SAAZ Master.

 

He said, “Part of our vision for a united retail-end forex market includes activating geo-mapping and automated BDCs physical office verification exercise using the Remote Gravity Physical verification apps. This will enable forex buyers to locate BDCs offices for effective and seamless transactions easily.”

 

He said again that a strong retail end forex market would help the Central Bank of Nigeria reach its goal of real price discovery for the naira, as well as meet international obligations and national goals, make it easier for security agencies to monitor and supervise, and give BDC players a better view of the market.

 

Gwadabe says that the goal of a unified retail end forex market will help with the creation of market intelligence reports, improve the image of BDCs, other players, and market operators both locally and internationally, and create more jobs.

 

Gwadabe said that if this plan is carried out well, it will help the government make money through a digitalized retail end market and create a well-structured, open, and competitive platform to stop the threat of illegal platforms.

 

“With the world going digital, BDC operators under the ABCON leadership are committed to staying ahead of the competition by deploying time-tested technology to deliver effective services to foreign exchange end-users.

 

“Finally, we also condemned in its entity, the seeming reappearance of illegal economic behaviours in forex conversion and peer-to-peer trading that pose another recent surprise in naira volatility and I therefore want to warn that while surprises are the new normal, resilience is also the new skills,” Gwadebe explained.

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