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Nigeria’s central bank raises interest rate to 24.75% amid soaring inflation

Published

1 month ago

March 27, 2024

Governor Olayemi Cardoso of Nigeria’s central bank has announced that the bank has increased its monetary policy rate by 200 basis points, to 24.75% from 22.75%, as part of its ongoing tightening measures to combat skyrocketing inflation.

This comes after the bank boosted rates by 4 percentage points last month in an attempt to contain pricing pressures, marking the highest rate hike in almost 17 years.

The committee did not convene under Cardoso’s leadership until February, thus this decision was only the second since he entered office in September of last year.

In the aftermath of the removal of subsidies on petrol products in May last year, Nigeria’s economy is experiencing a cost of living crisis that has left millions of people struggling to satisfy their basic requirements. Annual inflation is above 30%, the worst level in nearly three decades.

At a press conference, Cardoso stated that while members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were still certain that the tightening cycle was necessary to control inflation, they also believed that price pressures had started to ease as of May.

“Considerations of the committee at this meeting focused on the current inflationary pressures and the need to anchor inflation expectations as well as ensure sustained exchange rate stability,” he said.

The value of the naira appreciated by 12% by the end of last week’s trading activities, and has been on the rise so far this week also, exchanging lower than 1,400 per $ on Tuesday.

Recent measures like the removal of subsidies and the double depreciation of the naira have been defended by the government as necessary to boost economic growth and draw in investment, but they have incited public ire and, in some cases, desperation.

More tightening is anticipated in the upcoming two MPC meetings, according to David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics, before policymakers back off and maintain stable interest rates.

“We expect Governor Cardoso’s desire to bring the inflation crisis to a close and also strengthen the naira will lead to more tightening,” said Omojomolo.

Following the increase, Nigeria’s sovereign foreign dollar bonds saw an increase. Tradeweb data shows that the 2029 note saw the biggest jump, rising 1.4 cents against the dollar to 97.9 cents at 1344 GMT, its highest level in over two years.

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Nigerian oil regulator implements regional fuel standards

Published

22 hours ago

April 26, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

Nigeria’s oil authority has clarified that the recent changes to diesel fuel sulphur content standards are part of a regional effort to make things more uniform and are not meant to loosen rules for local refineries.

A report from S&P Global last week said that the West African fuel market had changed a lot after Nigeria raised the maximum diesel sulphur content from 200 parts per million (ppm) to around 650 ppm. This caused worries that the country might be lowering its standards to allow diesel made in Nigeria that is higher than the 200 ppm limit.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), on the other hand, said it was only following a 2020 decision by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that all of the regions had to slowly switch to better fuels.

Fuels that have a lot of sulfur can hurt engines and make the air dirty. As of right now, the ECOWAS rule lets locally-made fuel have more sulfur until January 2025. After that, a standard of less than 5 parts per million will be used for all oil, whether it is refined in West Africa or brought in from another country.

Farouk Ahmed, the head of the NMDPRA, told Reuters that the new limits are in line with ECOWAS’s choice to require stricter fuel specifications. The new rules will go into effect in January 2021 for non-ECOWAS imports and January 2025 for ECOWAS refineries.

“We are merely implementing the ECOWAS decision adopted in 2020,” Ahmed said.

“So a local refinery with a 650 ppm sulphur in its product is permissible and safe under the ECOWAS rule until January next year where a uniform standard would apply to both the locally refined and imported products outside West Africa”, Ahmed said.

Ahmed said that importers were told that the amount of sulphur allowed was going down, from 300 parts per million in February to 200 parts per million this month. This was done long before the huge Dangote refinery started providing diesel.

Diesel with a sulphur level of between 1,500 ppm and 3,000 ppm could be brought in by importers before.

The switch to cleaner fuels is in line with efforts to protect the environment around the world and makes sure that all area refiners have the same chances.

Nigeria recently had its worst blackout in decades because of a problem with its energy supply. The high cost of alternative energy sources has been a huge problem for both businesses and individuals, with the price of diesel being the most affordable choice for businesses.

VenturesNow

IMF predicts Kenya’s economy to overtake Angola

Published

22 hours ago

April 26, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that this year, Kenya will pass Angola to become the fourth biggest economy in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia will then follow it.

Kenya is expected to stay in that spot until the end of 2029 as its GDP grew from $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion) in 2022 to $108.9 billion (Ksh15.14 trillion) last year, based on the current exchange rate. Ethiopia’s lead over Kenya has grown, and in two years it will pass Nigeria to become the second-largest economy in the area.

In 2020, Ethiopia’s economy was smaller than Kenya’s but it has continued upward and is expected to have reached $159.74 billion (Sh21.165 trillion) by 2023, making the gap between the two countries even bigger. Also, Ethiopia’s economy is likely to stay in second place for three years, until 2029.

Some people think that Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all the goods and services made in the country, is higher than it is. The country just got out of a civil war that lasted two years and destroyed its economy. It is one of the African countries that has not paid one of its debts.

According to the African Development Bank, East Africa will continue to grow fastest in Africa. In 2024 and 2025, growth is expected to reach 5.1% and 5.7%, respectively. The expected strong economic performance of countries in the region is reflected in the growth acceleration of 1.6% points from 3.5% in 2023 to 7% in 2024. Seven economies are expected to grow by 5% or more in 2024: Rwanda (7.2%), Ethiopia (6.7%), Djibouti (6.2%), Tanzania (6.1%), Uganda (6%), Burundi (5.8%), and Kenya (5.4%).

Charlie Robertson, who is in charge of macro strategy at investment management firm FIM Partners UK Ltd., called the exchange rate between the pound and the erg a “fantasy exchange rate.”

“Ethiopia is maintaining a hugely overvalued exchange rate which is not supported by reality,” said Robertson in an email response.

The stated exchange rate for the Ethiopian Birr is 57, but the FIM Partners FX model says that it should be about 97% of the dollar. The IMF says that Ethiopia’s economy grew by 7.2% last year, from a base of $118.97 billion to $193.0 billion. This was the fastest GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

Kenya’s economy, on the other hand, grew more slowly, by only 5.5% in 2023. This was because the country’s economy came out of a year marked by drought and tight global financial markets because of the war in Ukraine. This month, Kenya is likely to share its official GDP numbers for 2023.

“But at a realistic exchange rate, [Ethiopia’s] GDP was probably $90 billion. Kenya’s GDP by comparison was $109 billion in 2023. So, if you use the official figure, you’d say Ethiopia’s economy was about 50% bigger than Kenya – but in reality, Kenya’s economy is bigger.”