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Nigeria’s central bank raises interest rate to 24.75% amid soaring inflation

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Governor Olayemi Cardoso of Nigeria’s central bank has announced that the bank has increased its monetary policy rate by 200 basis points, to 24.75% from 22.75%, as part of its ongoing tightening measures to combat skyrocketing inflation.

This comes after the bank boosted rates by 4 percentage points last month in an attempt to contain pricing pressures, marking the highest rate hike in almost 17 years.

The committee did not convene under Cardoso’s leadership until February, thus this decision was only the second since he entered office in September of last year.

In the aftermath of the removal of subsidies on petrol products in May last year, Nigeria’s economy is experiencing a cost of living crisis that has left millions of people struggling to satisfy their basic requirements. Annual inflation is above 30%, the worst level in nearly three decades.

At a press conference, Cardoso stated that while members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were still certain that the tightening cycle was necessary to control inflation, they also believed that price pressures had started to ease as of May.

“Considerations of the committee at this meeting focused on the current inflationary pressures and the need to anchor inflation expectations as well as ensure sustained exchange rate stability,” he said.

The value of the naira appreciated by 12% by the end of last week’s trading activities, and has been on the rise so far this week also, exchanging lower than 1,400 per $ on Tuesday.

Recent measures like the removal of subsidies and the double depreciation of the naira have been defended by the government as necessary to boost economic growth and draw in investment, but they have incited public ire and, in some cases, desperation.

More tightening is anticipated in the upcoming two MPC meetings, according to David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics, before policymakers back off and maintain stable interest rates.

“We expect Governor Cardoso’s desire to bring the inflation crisis to a close and also strengthen the naira will lead to more tightening,” said Omojomolo.

Following the increase, Nigeria’s sovereign foreign dollar bonds saw an increase. Tradeweb data shows that the 2029 note saw the biggest jump, rising 1.4 cents against the dollar to 97.9 cents at 1344 GMT, its highest level in over two years.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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