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Nigeria’s inflation rises to 28.92%, highest in 27 years

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Food prices spiked in December, making inflation in Nigeria the worst it has been in over 27 years. This exacerbated the country’s cost-of-living crisis and increased pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday that consumer inflation increased in December for the 12th consecutive month, from 28.20% year over year in November to 28.92% year over year.

The largest economy and most populous country in Africa has not seen inflation this high since mid-1996.
Comparing the headline inflation rate year over year to December 2022, which was 21.34%, it was 7.58% points higher. This demonstrates that, in comparison to the same month the previous year (December 2022), the headline inflation rate increased in December 2023 (year over year).

Moreover, the headline inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.29% on a month-over-month basis, 0.20% higher than the rate that was reported in November 2023 (2.09%). This indicates that the rate of rise in the average price level in December 2023 is higher than the rate of increase in November 2023.

NBS said: “In December 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 28.92% relative to the November 2023 headline inflation rate, which was 28.20 per cent.

“Looking at the movement, the December 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.72 per cent points when compared to the November 2023 headline inflation rate.

“Furthermore, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2023 was 2.29 per cent, which was 0.20 per cent higher than the rate recorded in November 2023 (2.09 per cent).

“This means that in December 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level is more than the rate of increase in the average price level in November 2023.”

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Kenya: President Ruto assured of fresh IMF disbursement

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This would help the economy, which is getting better after avoiding a debt problem earlier this year.

Since the government released a $1.5 billion Eurobond in February, Kenya’s shilling has recovered from record lows. This was done to calm the market’s fears of a possible default on a $2 billion bond that matures in June.

The problems with the currency, high inflation, and new taxes meant to close budget gaps have all made living costs go up, which has led to anger and some protests.

Kenya has been able to get through a liquidity problem thanks to strong loans from the IMF and the World Bank. The East African country got an extra $941 million in loans from the IMF in January. This brought its total deal with the fund to $4.43 billion, with about $2.5 billion still due.

A source quoted by Reuters claimed the IMF officials would be in Kenya on May 9 for a review that would allow a $1 billion tranche to be released.

“That process is going on very well,” he said in the interview on Monday, adding that talks between the Kenyan minister of finance and the IMF in Washington during the World Bank/IMF spring meeting earlier this month were “extensive, very successful”. The IMF has not commented on the ongoing review.

Still, Ruto kept his promise to cut spending by 12% in the next fiscal year, from 4.2 trillion shillings to 3.7 trillion shillings.

It is expected that the budget deficit will go down from 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) this fiscal year to 3.9% of GDP in the 2024/25 fiscal year (17 July–June).

Earlier on Monday, Ruto and other African heads of state asked rich countries to lend record amounts to a low-interest World Bank facility for developing nations. They said that these countries were facing climate and debt problems that were getting worse.

“We want a fair international financial architecture,” Ruto said.

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In 30 years, half of Nigerian biscuit companies went out of business— Manufacturers

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has claimed that in the last 30 years, half of the companies in the biscuit and bakery products business went out of business.

During the group’s recent annual general meeting in Lagos, Fola Osibo, head of the sub-sector, told everyone what was going on.

According to Osibo, Nigerian biscuit makers have had some tough times over the years, and some of these times have made it uncertain whether or not they would be able to stay in business.

He said that the problems included rules that made things hard to do, unpredictable prices and supplies of raw materials, and unfair competition from mostly cheap biscuits from other countries.

Osibo said, “Looking back about 30 to 40 years, biscuit manufacturing operations were thriving in this country, policies were supportive of local manufacturing, raw materials were readily available, and our association had up to 40 members scattered all over the country.

“Then suddenly, the economic situation started going southwards, and our sub-sector started facing economic disruptions, and unfavourable policies which impacted negatively on our operations. Most companies could not cope as margins were completely eroded caused by rising costs of operations, and they started closing shops.

“Unfortunately, our sector has been neglected over the years, and the various government policies have impacted negatively on our operations. Growth of local biscuit production has therefore been stunted and the number of those still in operation has shrunk to only about 15 to 20 companies.”

He asked the Federal Government to save the sector and keep it from falling apart totally by putting in place policies that are responsive and help local production.

The group asked the government to get rid of the Value Added Tax (like it was from 1999 to 2007), lower the net import duty on biscuit flour to 20%, and lower the import duty on some important raw materials like liquid glucose, hydrogenated fat, and flavourings.

Akinwande Owen, Plant Director of Cadbury Nigeria Plc, talked about the problems that the manufacturing industry faces in his presentation. He said that the main problems are changing foreign exchange rates, low consumer purchasing power, talent development and migration/relocation, multiple taxes, and government policies.

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