Fitch, a global credit ratings agency, has said that Nigeria’s Central Bank is still having trouble getting enough funds to clear its foreign exchange backlog.
Last week, the Acting Director of Corporate Communications of Nigeria’s Central Bank, Hakama Sidi-Ali, claimed the country had settled almost $2 billion of forward liabilities in the past three months, following the bank’s announcement in September of plans to clear the approximately $10 billion foreign exchange backlog in two weeks. But Fitch’s latest revelation suggests not much has really been achieved.
The naira would be under pressure due to Nigeria’s chronic shortage of foreign exchange, according to Gaimin Nonyane, Director of Fitch’s Middle East and Africa Sovereigns. She said, “We think that the central bank is still very short of the amount it needs to be able to clear the foreign exchange backlog and also meet the extremely large external financing by the private sector.”
The country’s high debt-to-revenue ratio is also contributing to a challenging sovereign credit rating. As of Thursday, the difference between the official and alternative exchange rates is 30%.
Fitch’s Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereigns, Nonyane, and Toby Iles issued a warning, pointing out that Nigeria’s interest payments-to-revenue ratio—which is more than 40%—poses a serious risk to its credit rating, since it is four times higher than the median for B-rated sovereigns.
Iles said that since 2014, interest-to-revenue ratios in Africa had more than doubled, primarily as a result of higher borrowing costs and rising expenses brought on by increases in global interest rates.
The pressure on Nigeria’s currency, the naira, which has lost more than 50% of its value on the official window since the FX market’s unification on June 14, 2023, is anticipated to be relieved if the clearing of the backlog is achieved. Yemi Cardoso, the governor of the CBN, estimated during his Senate confirmation hearing that at least $7 billion was due to foreign businesses doing business in Nigeria.
Despite a plethora of macroeconomic problems, including record-high inflation, a faltering currency, and weak crude oil production, Fitch rated Nigeria at B- with a stable outlook.