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So, World Bank won’t lend us a cent? Well, what’d Vietnam do? By Joachim Buwembo

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Last week, one startling piece of international financial news was the performance of an electric vehicle (EV) start-up venture cobbled together by previously struggling Vietnamese VinFast whose initial shares were issued in New York.

On day one, the shares sold well above the initial offer price giving VinFast a market capitalisation of $85 billion, instantly overtaking any of the three big three traditional automakers Ford, GM or Fiat Chrysler by a whopping $27 billion. The ‘small’ Vietnamese outfit now only sees Tesla as its worthy competitor in America.

Our main interest here is not cars, but the uncanny similarities between Vietnam and Uganda.

The two countries started their current economic journey at the same time in 1986 after lengthy wars.

Although Vietnam’s two-decade wars had ended in 1975, it took another 10 years for the militarily victorious socialists to reorganise and finally settle on a focused course for economic development.

Uganda ended its two decades of deadly civil strife in 1986, and it took the left-leaning new leaders only three years to firmly ditch socialist economic ideas and fully embrace the market-driven model.

Uganda at 240,000 sq. kms is about three-quarters the size of Vietnam, at 48 million people is about half the population of the latter and both countries have diverse people each of some 50 ethnic communities and original lingual variations. In 1985, they had about exactly the same per capita GDP of $235 though now Vietnam’s at nearly $4,000 is about four times Uganda’s.

In 1986, Vietnam prioritised the modernisation of agriculture, made land reforms, leveraged its traditional knowledge of rice and started growing all varieties of rice wanted across the world at export quality.

Uganda too started modernising agriculture including its traditional forte, coffee, for which new varieties were created by Ugandan scientists.

Indeed, its National Agriculture Research Organisation (Naro) puts out new crop varieties and on a trip to the southern tip of Tanzania some years ago, I met proud farmers who were harvesting ten tonnes of a Uganda Naro-developed maize variety per hectare.

Agriculture is a smart starting point for such tropical economies because by raising farmers’ incomes however slightly, you increase disposable income for the majority of the population thus creating demand for almost every industry. This is a tested approach; you can also ask the South Koreans if in doubt.

Three to four decades later, Vietnam’s manufacturing also has followed its agricultural power, and its main exports now are smartphones, computers, electronics, chemicals and wood products like paper! And oh, quality glass, for which distant twin Uganda also has an unexploited advantage of high-quality sands, among a similar array of minerals including the rare earth metals needed for clean energy.

By now, Ugandans have done enough ranting against the World Bank for halting its lending over the other matter of sexual orientations.

It is about time to look at alternative funding for development activities and the market can be a viable source, like VinFast, the little EV maker from distant twin Vietnam has found.

A company mobilising over $80 billion in one day is no simple matter. And Uganda already has companies that are into e-mobility, including one making electric motorbikes and another making electric buses that have been on the road for over three years, with a 100 percent safety record.

The Naro mentioned above, as someone pointed out recently, has developed such quality health and nutritional products that it is embarrassing how little they have been publicised and why they don’t enjoy any protection!

Some administrative action would make Naro-floated shares on the Kampala Securities Exchange perform better than the telecoms into which Ugandan share buyers pump billions. Naro is 100 percent state-owned.

Yes, there are alternatives to borrowing!

Strictly Personal

For EAC states to excel, members should hire expatriate ministers, By Joachim Buwembo

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Next week, the East African Community, especially the original three members Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, will be marking their revival Silver Jubilee, which is also an opportunity to reflect on 25 years after the passing of regional integration icon Mwalimu Julius Nyerere.

The integrationist and pro-federation Mwalimu would certainly be happy with the revival of the EAC. But how contented humanist Nyerere who committed his then poor country’s resources and lives to the emancipation of fellow Africans would be with the goings on in the region, can only be debated.

Hundreds of Tanzanian men and women at Nyerere’s command gave their lives so Ugandans would be saved from a dictatorship that attached low value to human life and “disappeared” political dissenters, with a few whose bodies were found having been disfigured sometimes with acid. In Kenya, extra-judicial executions of high-profile political dissenters were also being carried albeit with more sophistication than Uganda’s.

Should some people in Tanzania start derailing that lovely country backwards to catch up with the murderous Uganda and Kenya of the 1970s and criminalise the holding of different political views, then we would beg the EAC to find its manhood and insist that members start hiring expatriate ministers to man certain portfolios thus: For Justice and Law, expatriate ministers from the Scandinavian states would be preferable. But of course, beneficiaries of injustice and illegality would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so to hell with protection of human lives.

For promotion of Trade and Tourism, expatriates from the United Arab Emirates would fit the bill. But of course, beneficiaries of poaching, smuggling and tax evasion would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so to hell with expansion of trade and tourism.

For Industry, Indian expatriate ministers would do well to drive import substitution while creating millions of jobs in the region. But of course, beneficiaries of raw materials exportation and importation of consumer goods would oppose and argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so, to hell with the unemployed, human health and environmental protection.

For Finance and Economic Planning, Singaporean expatriate ministers would be appropriate, but of course beneficiaries of grand corruption and incompetence would argue passionately that ours are independent states; so let the taxes be stolen so the awful service delivery gets even worse while debilitating debts mount.

For Transport Infrastructure, expatriate ministers from the Netherlands would be suitable because integrated systems of air, rail, road and water were needed by yesterday, so that transport ceases being an obstacle and becomes an enabler of development instead.

But of course, beneficiaries dominant, inefficient transport modes will argue that we are independent, sovereign states; so let primitive transport systems and fragmented airspaces remain and keep the cost of living and doing business up.

For Energy, Japanese expatriate ministers would do the job to speedily guide our economies through the energy transition, and transfer technology like Chinese have done in Uganda to create local capacity to make electric vehicles.

But to drastically reduce reliance on fossil fuels some countries should consider hiring Ethiopian expatriate ministers who will know best how to say enough is enough, switch from internal combustion engines to electric.

US expatriate ministers can also be considered to help the adaptation of our aviation sectors to sustainable biofuel in addition to driving the processing of rare earth minerals into e-mobility batteries.

But profiteers from the poisoned fossil fuels would say we are independent and sovereign; so let fuel import bills remain high and the peoples’ health be damaged.

The all-important Education sector should without doubt be entrusted to expatriate ministers from Finland for wholesome development of our children.

But of course, the beneficiaries of the extortionist private schools and the cripplingly looted public institutions would argue that these are sovereign independent states; so let the children continue getting mentally stunted and unemployable.

And in Health, of course, the expatriate ministers should be from Sweden, to ensure that everyone accesses adequate health services. Expectedly, beneficiaries of public funds to secure treatment abroad and those who benefit from stolen medical supplies would argue that ours are independent sovereign states; so that the wanton deaths of children and mothers continue.

Give the Housing to expatriate Chinese ministers so we close the era of human beings living in pigsties. However, those who benefit from a disorganised, stunted housing sector would argue that we are independent sovereign states so the majority can continue living sub-humanly.

Joachim Buwembo is a Kampala based journalist. buwembo@gmail.com

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Strictly Personal

Tanzania, we need to talk, By Othman Masoud Othman

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The ACT-Wazalendo party has been closely following and monitoring political events in the United Republic of Tanzania which, if not attended to urgently, might lead our country into an abyss.

In the six years of the presidency of John Pombe Magufuli, the country suffered a lot. There were claims of narrowing of the democratic space, the right to assemble and the right to free speech.

After the death of President Magufuli and Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed power, there was a sign of hope. The public optimistically welcomed the 4Rs (Reconciliation, Rebuild, Reforms, Reunite). Several positive measures were taken, including the formation of a special task force, which involved members from political parties, academic institutions, the private sector, and civil society. The team came up with many measures to be undertaken: Reform of political parties and elections laws, and the enacting of a new constitution. The President went further to investigate the problems around the criminal justice system and how to solve them.

It is one year to the next general election expected in October 2025, but there is a lot of pessimism, as not enough measures have been taken as promised. Even though the Elections Act was reviewed and the Electoral Commission renamed the Independent Electoral Commission, there is a lot to be done, including writing a new constitution and implementing the proposed reforms to the criminal justice system.

recently, there have been cases of abductions and disappearances of some activists and politicians. The situation got tense after a leader of Chadema, Ali Mohamed Kibao, was abducted and later found dead. Chadema accused the government security forces of these events and called for independent investigations. President Samia also condemned the abductions and ordered investigations.

Chadema also called for peaceful protests, demanding accountability and the police banned the demonstrations.

These happenings are a sign of uncertainty towards the general election, starting with the civic elections expected next month.

We urge the Chadema to reconsider demonstrations in the country. Human rights abuses are not just morally wrong, they are short-sighted. Human rights are a sound investment. They build resilient and prosperous communities and strong institutions based on the rule of law.

We, as a party, believe that our country has people full of wisdom and religious leaders who can guide our country back to the right track.

We urge all sides of the political divide to cool down. We believe that all players have reasonable demands and the failure to listen to each other has led us where we are as a country.

We urge the government to quickly initiate dialogue involving political leaders, the police, religious leaders and other stakeholders in order to bring sanity back to our country.

Our party leaders are engaging in talks between the government and other political parties to find solutions. We urge all the citizens of Tanzania to be united on this to build a better future. we believe that this is the time to talk.

Othman Masoud Othman is the First Vice President of Zanzibar and National Chairperson, of ACT-Wazalendo.

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