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An ‘expert’s’ view on how Tanzania and Kenya escaped putschs in the ‘Coup Age’ By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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On July 26, there was a military coup in Niger. It was the fifth coup in Sahel West Africa in three years, the others having been in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad.

Now, everyone is talking about the West African Coup Belt and the Sahel Coup Zone, and other names. Some people are going as far as claiming that there is a return to the age of coups in Africa.

In some East African countries, citizens frustrated with the state of affairs, are praying for coups. So far, thankfully, the gods haven’t heard their prayers.

There has been no successful coup in the East African Community zone for 30 years, the last failed bid being by Maj-Gen Godefroid Niyombare in Burundi in May 2015. But the most remarkable thing about the EAC is that two countries, Kenya and Tanzania, survived the 1960s to 1980s coup epidemics.

Many clever men and women have wrestled with this apparent Kenyan and Tanzanian immunity to coups, and the question remains unresolved. I again asked a few East African experts and elders for an explanation and decided to create a composite of their most outside-the-box answers, in the voice of Abdul, that famous characters from our old East African English textbooks.

COO: We are seeing coups in Sahel West Africa but, so far, none in East Africa. None in Southern Africa too, we must add. But let us stay with our East Africa, would you say East Africa is beyond coups?

Abdul: Definitely not, but the risks are very low except in three EAC member states.

COO: Which three?

Ask me in five years, right now I still have to eat, so I won’t specify.

Fair enough. However, it is noteworthy that in a period in Africa where we had coups almost everywhere, there were no successful ones in Kenya and Tanzania. What makes those two countries special?

Tanzania and Kenya had major anti-colonial wars; the Maji Maji Rebellion against the Germans between 1905 and 1907, in which between 75,000 and 300,000 people died; and in Kenya, the Mau Mau uprising between 1952 and 1960 against British colonialists, with between 12,000 and 15,000 people killed. It’s possible these countries got weary of violent political contestation, which made the ground sterile for coups.

But wait a minute, in Uganda Kings Kabelega and Muwanga also fought a resistance war against the British, but Uganda had coups.

The Maji Maji and Mau Mau rebellions were from the bottom up. The Kabalega-Muwanga wars were from the top. Some of us in East Africa don’t understand you Ugandans and your kings.

Okay, but the Algerian war of independence against the French was deadlier than the Maji Maji and Mau Mau combined, with anything up to 1.5 million deaths. Yet, in 1965 Colonel Houari Boumédiène overthrew Algeria’s first President Ahmed Ben Bella.

True, which tells us other factors beyond a history of a bitter anticolonial struggle are at play. One of them is what people eat. Kenya and Tanzania are coastal nations which eat ugali. People in the East and Central African hinterland never used to eat “posho,” as they called it, and even despised it. People in the hinterland eat directly off their gardens. The coastal people buy their staple from the shops.

How does that factor into coups?

It means the cost of entry for a coup-maker is low in the East African hinterland. In the ugali-eating countries, the soldiers have to wonder about the cost and availability of maize flour. Maize flour is complicated. It seems that discourages them. That might explain why the leader of Kenya’s short-lived 1982 coup, Hezekiah Ochuka, was from the Kisumu lakeside. They are fish people, those ones.

You might have a point there, because the ugali (mealie)-eating countries of Southern Africa like Malawi and Zambia also escaped coups.

However, in northern Africa, Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia, where wheat flour for bread is more centrally organised than maize flour, had coups. And in Morocco, they haven’t.

True, I expected you would say that. Which is why it’s important to note another factor: Kiswahili. In countries where Kiswahili was the national or official language, there was never a coup. The sample is small, yes, but the East African hinterland came very late to Kiswahili. If they had adopted it earlier, they would have had happier political lives.

How does that work?

Because of the broad forces from which Kiswahili emerged, it is not the language of a particular dominant ethnic or national group, and therefore brings a culturally neutral conversation to national politics in diverse countries. Perhaps that keeps the sharp edge that motivates coup makers out of the mainstream. But I think the real anticoup balm in Kiswahili is its related Taraab mu-sic. Taraab, which originated in Zanzibar in the mid-1800s, is a uniquely East African coastal music form, and it has not percolated into the East African hinterland much, beyond the small traveller trading communities.

Explain. Can music impact politics that much?

Taraab is a slow, contemplative music. But most-ly, it is poetry, and serenades. It has a soporific effect, which is why East African coastal communities are largely calm. The greedy capitalists in East Africa consider coastal communities lazy. It is a serious misunderstanding. In Kenya and Tanzania, Taraab has seeped into the national consciousness and calmed political temperatures. This is most evident in Tanzania.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the «Wall of Great Africans». Twitter@cobbo3

Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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Strictly Personal

Economic policies must be local, By Lekan Sote

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With 32.70 per cent headline inflation, 40.20 per cent food inflation, and bread inflation of 45 per cent, all caused by the removal of subsidies from petrol and electricity, and the government’s policy of allowing market forces to determine the value of the Naira, Nigerians are reeling under high cost of living.

 

The observation by Obi Alfred Achebe of Onitsha, that “The wellbeing of the people has declined more steeply in the last months,” leads to doubts about the “Renewed Hope” slogan of President Bola Tinubu’s government that is perceived as extravagant, whilst asking Nigerians to be patient and wait for its unfolding economic policies to mature.

 

It doesn’t look as if it will abate soon, Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, who seems ready to hike electricity tariffs again, recently argued that the N225 per kilowatt hour of electricity that Discos charge Band A premium customers is lower than the N750 and N950 respective costs of running privately-owned petrol or diesel generators.

 

While noting that 129 million, or 56 per cent of Nigerians are trapped below poverty line, the World Bank revealed that real per capita Gross Domestic Product, which disregards the service industry component, is yet to recover from the pre-2016 economic depression under the government of Muhammadu Buhari.

 

This has led many to begin to doubt the government’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund-inspired neo-liberal economic policies that seem to have further impoverished poor Nigerians, practically eliminated the middle class, and is making the rich also cry.

 

Yet the World Bank, which is not letting up, recently pontificated that “previous domestic policy missteps (based mainly on its own advice) are compounding the shocks of rising inflation (that is) eroding the purchasing power of the people… and this policy is pushing many (citizens) into poverty.”

 

It zeroes in by asking Nigeria to stay the gruelling course, which Ibukun Omole thinks “is nothing more than a manifesto for exploitation… a blatant attempt to continue the cycle of exploitation… a tool of imperialism, promoting the same policies that have kept Nigeria under the thumb of… neocolonial agenda for decades.”

 

When Indermilt Gill, Senior Vice President of the World Bank, told the 30th Summit of Nigeria’s Economic Summit Group, in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, that Nigerians may have to endure the harrowing economic conditions for another 10 to 15 years, attendees murmured but didn’t walk out on him because of Nigerian’s tradition of politeness to guests.

 

Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, who agrees with the World Bank that “purchasing power has dwindled,” also thinks that “these (World Bank-inspired) policies, usually handed down by arm-twisting compulsions, are not working.”

 

What seems to be trending now is the suggestion that because these neo-liberal policies do not seem to be helping the economy and the citizens of Nigeria, at least in the short term, it would be better to think up homegrown solutions to Nigeria’s economic problems.

 

Late Speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, is quoted to have quipped that, at the end of the day, “All politics is local.” He may have come to that conclusion after observing that it takes the locals in a community to know what is best for them.

 

This aphorism must apply to economics, a field of study that is derived from sociology, which is the study of the way of life of a people. Proof of this is in “The Wealth of Nations,” written by Adam Smith, who is regarded as the first scholar of economics.

 

In his Introduction to the Penguin Classics edition of “The Wealth of Nations,” Andrew Skinner observes: “Adam Smith was undoubtedly the remarkable product of a remarkable age and one whose writing clearly reflects the intellectual, social and economic conditions of the period.”

 

To drive the point home that Smith’s book was written for his people and his time, Skinner reiterated that “the general ‘philosophy,’ which it contained was so thoroughly in accord with the aspirations and circumstances of his age.”

 

In a Freudian slip of the Darwinist realities of the Industrial Revolution that birthed individualism, capitalism, and global trade, Smith averred that “How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principle in his nature which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasures of seeing it.”

 

And, he let it slip that capitalism is for the advantage of Europe when he confessed that “Europe, by not leaving things at perfect liberty (the so-called Invisible Hand), occasions… inequities,” by “restraining the competition in some trades to a smaller number… increasing it in others beyond what it naturally would be… and… free circulation of labour (or expertise) and stocks (goods) both from employment to employment and from place to place!”

 

Policymakers, who think Bretton Woods institutions will advise policies to replicate the success of the Euro-American economy in Nigeria must be daydreaming. After advising elimination of subsidy, as global best practices that reflect market forces, they failed to suggest that Nigeria’s N70,000 monthly minimum wage, neither reflects the realities of the global marketplace, nor Section 16(2,d) of Nigeria’s Constitution, which suggests a “reasonable national minimum living wage… for all citizens.”

 

After Alex Sienart, World Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria, pointed out that the wage increase will directly affect the lives of only 4.1 per cent of Nigerians, he suggested that Nigeria needed more productive jobs to reduce poverty. But he neither explained “productive jobs,” nor suggested how to create them.

 

In admitting past wrong economic policies that the World Bank recommended for Nigeria, its former President, Jim Yong Kim, confessed, “I think the World Bank has to take responsibility for having emphasized hard infrastructure –roads, rails, energy– for a long time…

 

“There is still the bias that says we will invest in hard infrastructure, and then we grow rich, (and) we will have enough money to invest in health and education. (But) we are now saying that’s the wrong approach, that you’ve got to start investing in your people.”

 

Kim is a Korean-American physician, health expert, and anthropologist, whose Harvard University and Brown University Ivy League background shapes his decidedly “Pax American” worldview of America’s dominance of the world economy.

 

Despite his do-gooder posturing, his diagnoses and prescriptions still did not quite address the root cause of Nigeria’s economic woes, nor provide any solutions. They were mere diversions that stopped short of the way forward.

 

He should have advocated for the massive accumulation of capital and investments in the local production of manufacturing machinery, industrial spare parts, and raw materials—items that are currently imported, weakening Nigeria’s trade balance.

 

He should have pushed for the completion of Ajaokuta Steel Mill and helped to line up investors with managerial, technical, and financial competence to salvage Nigeria’s electricity sector, whose poor run has been described by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of Africa Development Bank, as “killing Nigerian industries.”

 

He could have assembled consultants to accelerate the conversion of Nigeria’s commuter vehicles to Compressed Natural Gas and get banks of the metropolitan economies, that hold Nigeria’s foreign reserves in their vaults, to invest their low-interest funds into Nigeria’s agriculture— so that Nigeria will no longer import foodstuffs.

 

Nigerians need homegrown solutions to their economic woes.

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