Strictly Personal

A Foreign Policy Guide For President Tinubu, By Chris Adetayo

Published

2 years ago

June 15, 2023

After eight years of the Muhammadu Buhari-led Presidency, Nigeria’s democratic journey continues with the inauguration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the President on 29^th of May, 2023. He is now the 16^th President of Nigeria, and the 5^th in the Fourth Republic.

As with changes in leadership anywhere in the world, so much will change in the new administration. Key amongst the changes will be personnel and policies. For a country like Nigeria, with its many challenges, the changes that President Tinubu will make will be keenly watched. On the domestic end, he has already commenced on this track, by bringing a decisive end to the fuel subsidy regime that has dominated economic discourse in the country for more than three decades. More will certainly follow.

But even as domestic policies will rightly dominate his attention in the first few months, interests will also be high with regards to the direction of the country’s foreign policy and its relations with the rest of the world. For good reason – Nigeria’s foreign policy in the last decade, indeed after the Obasanjo Presidency, has been rudderless and ineffectual for the most part.

What is the current Foreign Policy of Nigeria? Ask theoreticians, practitioners and observers of Nigeria’s foreign engagements and chances are that you will get as many answers as there are respondents. This speaks to a lack of strategy, focus and leadership. Things got so bad that all too often it seemed that policy and execution was being set and driven by the recently-formed Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM), headed by Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, rather than by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). The then Minister, Geoffrey Onyeama, for someone who held one of the most important offices of state, was painfully low key and diffident.

President Tinubu must start by seeking and putting in place the right peg in the rounded hole that is the MFA. In doing this, he must begin by asking himself the question, “where is today’s Bolaji Akinyemi”? For all the ills of the military in our past national life, they gave us some of the most fantastic public servants. In Bolaji Akinyemi, a Professor of International Relations, Nigeria got a Foreign Minister (between 1985 and 1987) who knew the intricacies of the international system, understood what it meant to set foreign policy to drive domestic goals, and build national prestige on the global scale. He was both a theorist and a practitioner. Can we find such a man or woman in today’s Nigeria, with the knowledge to articulate a proper foreign policy for Nigeria in the nascent free-for-all global regime, and with the energy to drive its execution? President must drag the net wide and find us that person.

Importantly, what President Tinubu must avoid is turning the MFA into the dumping ground of politicians. Such persons tend to spend their time focused on their domestic political careers to the detriment of their core role. He must also find a balance between churn and an unwillingness to make change in the face of lack of results. In the 16 years of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in power, Nigeria had 11 Ministers of Foreign Affairs, an exceedingly high turnover rate for such an important post. Most of the Ministers did not stay long enough in office to make any meaningful impact. Conversely, the last Minister, under the All Progressive Party (APC) Government, was in office for 8 years and seemed to sleep-walk through it all. Neither scenario served the nation well and must be avoided.

On the policy side, the President must start from the time-honoured precept that foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. Accordingly, he must set Nigeria’s foreign policy to drive and complement his avowed domestic agenda. No soothsayer is required to point out that security, the economy, and national unity will continue to dominate the actions of the Federal Government.

Focusing the country’s foreign policy to better handle the country’s security challenges will require increasingly efficient and effective partnerships with key actors in the global arena. The rise of domestic terrorists over the past decade and a half, and their strong links to international non-state actors, demands a foreign policy that is strongly linked with the nation’s defence policies. In this wise, Nigeria must take lessons from the United States whose foreign policy is the joint responsibility of the State Department (using soft powers) and the Defence Department (using the military). Together, they find a way to project America as a strong yet friendly nation to most of the world, and jointly focus on keeping the country and its peoples safe through various allies, pacts and programmes. Our MFA and the Ministry of Defence must replicate the same, leveraging on each other’s expertise and assets to unlock enduring solutions for the nation’s security.

Growing Nigeria’s economy will also require a new foreign policy focus. Unlike his predecessor, President Tinubu should cause a complete review of our economic diplomacy playbook. The reluctance of Nigeria to be at the forefront of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) cost the nation in terms of setting the agenda for this great initiative. Since then, Nigeria has been playing catch-up to the likes of Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda. A recalibration is required that pushes Nigeria right into the centre of all discussions about African integration efforts at the African Union and ECOWAS. Nigeria must return to its role as Africa’s brain box, providing thought leadership for the continent.

One practice of the last decade that President Tinubu should put an end to is the shuttle diplomacy that sees the President of Nigeria joining other African Heads of State to honour invitations from individual Asian, European and American Leaders. In the past decade, African leaders have sat down at the capitals of great and not-so-great powers including the United States, France, Turkey, India and China. Fed with the usual promises of aid and support, many of these summits have added precious little to the development of the continent. Even worse, they depict the whole continent as a beggarly bunch whose leaders have no sense of self-worth. President Tinubu must get Nigeria off this path and convince the rest of Africa to do the same. If any country wishes to engage Africa as a collective, the AU platform should serve very well. Should the rest of Africa wish to continue on this slovenly journey, President Tinubu must separate Nigeria from them.

One important institution that President Tinubu is inheriting is NIDCOM, established in 2017 by the Buhari Administration. Charged with the responsibility of engaging Nigerians in the diaspora on policies and developments in the country, and to harness this rich resource for national development, NIDCOM has had mixed success. Initially bogged down by bureaucratic challenges (office space, staffing etc), it soon found itself stepping into the exclusive space of the MFA by issuing statements on behalf of the Government in direct response to the actions of foreign governments. While the ship has been steadied, more needs to be done. Giving the abiding love of diaspora Nigerians for their native land and their greater unity abroad, NIDCOM needs to tap into this in the pursuit of national cohesion and unity at home. There is also a need to subsume it under the MFA, especially as many of its functions are consular in nature. Doing so will eliminate the frequent public communications disharmony between them. A dotted line reporting to the Ministry of Information and National Orientation will further help to position it for better service.

Finally, the new President has a gift from young Nigerians that he must grasp and use on the foreign policy front. That is Nigeria’s greatest soft power – music. In 2022, this writer wrote of the need to leverage the growing popularity of Nigeria’s Afrobeats music on the global stage and provided a template for doing so. Since then, while our artistes have become even more popular and won even more awards and broken even more records, Nigeria has done little or nothing to integrate this into its foreign policy. This failure leaves the country unable to take full advantage of the great value that should accrue to the country through the exploits of its globally recognised music. President Tinubu must quickly remedy this situation.

In the final analysis, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has an opportunity to chart a new, more focused and energetic direction for Nigeria’s foreign policy. The world is waiting for Nigeria to re-emerge as Africa’s beacon of light, its surest voice, and its economic powerhouse. Just as he cannot afford to fail domestically, he also cannot afford to do so on the international stage. So much is riding on what he will do and say over the next 4 years. May he succeed.

Chris Adetayo is a national and international affairs analyst

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Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

Published

3 weeks ago

November 27, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

Strictly Personal

Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

Published

4 weeks ago

November 20, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.