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Kenya, Russia sign deal to boost trade cooperation

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Kenya’s presidency has revealed that the country is set to sign a trade pact with Russia focused on boosting cooperation between businesses.

President William Ruto’s office made the announcement on Monday, after hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Nairobi.

Lavrov is en route to Cape Town, South Africa for a summit of the foreign ministers of the BRICS group of rising economies, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, on June 1.

Beyond its growing defence ties with African countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mozambique and others, Russia has increased efforts to boost economic ties with Africa.

He commended the 60 years of friendship between his country and Kenya, saying Russia’s relationship with the continent has new momentum after the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit.

Russia also plans to hold an Africa-Russia summit in St Petersburg in July as it continues to attempt to wade off issues around relations with the West prompted by its invasion of Ukraine.

Since the commencement of the war in February 2022, African governments have failed to forge a unified position on it as most abstained from the vote in the first and second resolutions of the United Nations demanding that Russia ceases fire.

Kenya said its position remains respect for the territorial integrity of all countries. “Kenya calls for a resolution of the conflict in a manner respectful to the two parties,” a statement by the presidency said.

Source: https://www.president.go.ke/kenya-and-russia-to-boost-trade-relations/

Kenya, Russia to sign trade deal

Kenya’s presidency has revealed that the country is set to sign a trade pact with Russia focused on boosting cooperation between businesses.

President William Ruto’s office made the announcement on Monday after hosting Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov in Nairobi.

Lavrov is en route to Cape Town, South Africa for a summit of the foreign ministers of the BRICS group of rising economies, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, on June 1.

Beyond its growing defence ties with African countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mozambique and others, Russia has increased efforts to boost economic ties with Africa.

He commended the 60 years of friendship between his country and Kenya, saying Russia’s relationship with the continent had new momentum after the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit.

Russia also plans to hold an Africa-Russia summit in St Petersburg in July as it continues to attempt to strengthen ties with other allies even as relations with the West prompted by its invasion of Ukraine worsens.

Since the commencement of the war in February 2022, African governments have failed to forge a unified position on it as most abstained from the vote in the first and second resolutions of the United Nations demanding that Russia ceased fire.

Kenya said its position remained respect for the territorial integrity of all countries. “Kenya calls for a resolution of the conflict in a manner respectful to the two parties,” a statement by the presidency said.

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Nigerian oil regulator implements regional fuel standards

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Nigeria’s oil authority has clarified that the recent changes to diesel fuel sulphur content standards are part of a regional effort to make things more uniform and are not meant to loosen rules for local refineries.

A report from S&P Global last week said that the West African fuel market had changed a lot after Nigeria raised the maximum diesel sulphur content from 200 parts per million (ppm) to around 650 ppm. This caused worries that the country might be lowering its standards to allow diesel made in Nigeria that is higher than the 200 ppm limit.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), on the other hand, said it was only following a 2020 decision by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that all of the regions had to slowly switch to better fuels.

Fuels that have a lot of sulfur can hurt engines and make the air dirty. As of right now, the ECOWAS rule lets locally-made fuel have more sulfur until January 2025. After that, a standard of less than 5 parts per million will be used for all oil, whether it is refined in West Africa or brought in from another country.

Farouk Ahmed, the head of the NMDPRA, told Reuters that the new limits are in line with ECOWAS’s choice to require stricter fuel specifications. The new rules will go into effect in January 2021 for non-ECOWAS imports and January 2025 for ECOWAS refineries.

“We are merely implementing the ECOWAS decision adopted in 2020,” Ahmed said.

“So a local refinery with a 650 ppm sulphur in its product is permissible and safe under the ECOWAS rule until January next year where a uniform standard would apply to both the locally refined and imported products outside West Africa”, Ahmed said.

Ahmed said that importers were told that the amount of sulphur allowed was going down, from 300 parts per million in February to 200 parts per million this month. This was done long before the huge Dangote refinery started providing diesel.

Diesel with a sulphur level of between 1,500 ppm and 3,000 ppm could be brought in by importers before.

The switch to cleaner fuels is in line with efforts to protect the environment around the world and makes sure that all area refiners have the same chances.

Nigeria recently had its worst blackout in decades because of a problem with its energy supply. The high cost of alternative energy sources has been a huge problem for both businesses and individuals, with the price of diesel being the most affordable choice for businesses.

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IMF predicts Kenya’s economy to overtake Angola

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that this year, Kenya will pass Angola to become the fourth biggest economy in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia will then follow it.

Kenya is expected to stay in that spot until the end of 2029 as its GDP grew from $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion) in 2022 to $108.9 billion (Ksh15.14 trillion) last year, based on the current exchange rate. Ethiopia’s lead over Kenya has grown, and in two years it will pass Nigeria to become the second-largest economy in the area.

In 2020, Ethiopia’s economy was smaller than Kenya’s but it has continued upward and is expected to have reached $159.74 billion (Sh21.165 trillion) by 2023, making the gap between the two countries even bigger. Also, Ethiopia’s economy is likely to stay in second place for three years, until 2029.

Some people think that Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all the goods and services made in the country, is higher than it is. The country just got out of a civil war that lasted two years and destroyed its economy. It is one of the African countries that has not paid one of its debts.

According to the African Development Bank, East Africa will continue to grow fastest in Africa. In 2024 and 2025, growth is expected to reach 5.1% and 5.7%, respectively. The expected strong economic performance of countries in the region is reflected in the growth acceleration of 1.6% points from 3.5% in 2023 to 7% in 2024. Seven economies are expected to grow by 5% or more in 2024: Rwanda (7.2%), Ethiopia (6.7%), Djibouti (6.2%), Tanzania (6.1%), Uganda (6%), Burundi (5.8%), and Kenya (5.4%).

Charlie Robertson, who is in charge of macro strategy at investment management firm FIM Partners UK Ltd., called the exchange rate between the pound and the erg a “fantasy exchange rate.”

“Ethiopia is maintaining a hugely overvalued exchange rate which is not supported by reality,” said Robertson in an email response.

The stated exchange rate for the Ethiopian Birr is 57, but the FIM Partners FX model says that it should be about 97% of the dollar. The IMF says that Ethiopia’s economy grew by 7.2% last year, from a base of $118.97 billion to $193.0 billion. This was the fastest GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

Kenya’s economy, on the other hand, grew more slowly, by only 5.5% in 2023. This was because the country’s economy came out of a year marked by drought and tight global financial markets because of the war in Ukraine. This month, Kenya is likely to share its official GDP numbers for 2023.

“But at a realistic exchange rate, [Ethiopia’s] GDP was probably $90 billion. Kenya’s GDP by comparison was $109 billion in 2023. So, if you use the official figure, you’d say Ethiopia’s economy was about 50% bigger than Kenya – but in reality, Kenya’s economy is bigger.”

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