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Obidients, Buhari And October 1st by Lasisi Olagunju

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I learnt yesterday that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will be visiting Nigeria today. The question I asked the bearer of the great tidings was: When is he going back to his rest in London? He will be arriving Nigeria two days after our urban psychedelic ‘children’ of anger shut down vital parts of Lagos and other cities in celebration of Nigeria’s Independence Day. They are called Obidients, supporters of Mr Peter Obi, urban rave of the moment. They had drums and drummers; they sang and danced; they sweated. Their procession carried the air of a rite of passage. Funerals are rites of passage. That was the ritual the city dancers staged for the regime of pains and alienation. The day the ‘Obidients’ did their street show was exactly two hundred and forty days to the end of the eight-year reign of Tinubu’s leader and role model, President Muhammadu Buhari. And while the angry urban youths were getting set last Saturday to dance round in pains, the president was on the television submitting his report card to Nigerians. He marked his own script and remarked that he “was called to serve”; that he “saw an opportunity to create a better Nigeria” and that he had done exactly that “with the support of Nigerians.” Get it very clear: Buhari in his October 1, 2022 address to the nation said that in seven years plus, he had created “a better Nigeria” for all of us. That affirmation of excellence in service delivery caught my ears and it was my main takeaway from the president’s 47-paragraph broadcast. The beneficiaries of His Excellency’s excellent piloting of our plane should include the droves parachuting out of the country.

Between May 29, 2015 when he was sworn in and May 29, 2023 when he will leave us with heavy hearts, there are 2,922 days. This means that as of the time he submitted his self-prepared assessment report last Saturday, this president had spent 2,682 out of his total days in our presidency. He has 238 days left, from today. The Buhari government has always been a nightmare impudently dressed like a daydream. Everything has a history. Even words do. Check your dictionary for the 700-year journey of ‘nightmare’ to the present. What can you find? The Oxford English Dictionary says the word ‘nightmare’ was first used around 1300 and it referred to “a female spirit or monster” which settled on and produced “a feeling of suffocation in a sleeping person or animal.” Nigerians are actually a sleepy lot; and suffocation best describes what Nigeria offers them as oxygen. Suffocation is the death that killed fishes washed ashore. There are many of such corpses on the wet sands of Nigeria.

The president who marked his own script on Saturday beat his chest in self-praise. Chinua Achebe’s lizard did that too after it jumped down unhurt from the great Iroko tree. The president may enjoy his reign but it is not funny for Nigerians. He was truly “called to serve” by, especially, Tinubu, and supported by 15 million out of Nigeria’s 200 million citizens. I excuse the genuinely innocent voter who cast their lot with Buhari without any agenda of the self. Where I come from, you teach a child how to climb, you don’t teach him how to come down; we help people to get jobs and then exit their space and watch them perform. Our ancestors tell us that Alágemo’s duty ends with the siring of his kids; it is left for the birthed to learn how to dance and to dance well. Nigeria’s sick baby was handed over to the paediatrician in the Villa seven years, four months ago. Right in the hands of the carer, the child has died. A dollar exchanged for N197 on May 15, 2015; on Friday, the last day of last month, 740 Nigerian naira bought a US dollar. The house has fallen. Like in Shakespeare’s Richard III, the dream across here is of “bloody deeds and death: fainting, despair; despairing…” Today, nightmare means just two words: bad dream. And every night, every Nigerian goes to bed bristling with the fears of a night that may have no dawn. You must be contending with these fears too – unless you sleep in the Villa in Abuja or in a royal infirmary in London.

On Saturday, the captain of this ship read a smooth speech of promise made, promise kept. He sincerely thought he had berthed at a shore made of gold. His speechwriters have used their genius to sink pleasant babanriga on the neck of the unpleasant. They sing sting for the people to chant after them. Has Buhari actually created a better Nigeria? He believed he has; Nigerians outside his government will say no, he hasn’t. And they will use their lives of misery and want to convict him. He danced zigzag while singing his own praise. He admitted, blithely, that Nigeria was confronting “current economic challenges such as debt burden, growing inflation, living standards and increasing unemployment accentuated by our growing youthful population” but explained everything away as “globally induced.” He spoke about security and insecurity. He thought he passed here too. But victims of his failure will not agree. They will say killings and attacks have become a canvass of firestorms over Nigeria, rupturing life and living. People get killed or abducted or maimed every second. Indeed, in the very week the president was beating his chest, bandits rained terror and tears.

We may have lost interest in counting the dead, even in burying them, but the United States-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) keeps track of these killings and attacks. I quote its update for one of the weeks of last month: “September 17: Kidnappers abducted five in Emuoha, Rivers. September 17: Nigerian troops killed one civilian in Orsu, Imo. September 17: Nigerian troops killed one civilian in Ihiala, Anambra. September 17: The Nigerian Air Force killed twenty-two bandits in Shinkafi, Zamfara. September 17: Police killed two kidnappers in Odukpani, Cross River. September 17: Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) killed two Boko Haram commanders in Bama, Borno. September 18: Bandits killed four and abducted fifteen in Lapai, Niger State. September 18: Herders killed three in Guma, Benue. September 20: Kidnappers abducted two in Obio/Adkpor, Rivers. September 20: Kidnappers abducted two in Emuoha, Rivers. September 21: Suspected herders killed fourteen in Logo, Benue. September 21: Police officers killed one civilian in Jos North, Plateau.  September 22: Three were abducted during communal violence in Makurdi, Benue. September 22: Police officers killed one kidnapper in Uhunmwonde, Edo.  September 22: Kidnappers abducted three police officers in Ewekoro, Ogun. September 22: Bandits kidnapped two in Kajuru, Kaduna. September 22: The Nigerian Air Force killed forty bandits in Zurmi, Zamfara. September 22: Gunmen killed one police officer in Akoko-Edo, Edo. September 23: Bandits killed eighteen at a mosque in Bukkuyum, Zamfara.” You heard what Pastor Enoch Adeboye said yesterday, Sunday? Kidnappers now go into palaces to abduct kings. It is well. The president has done well.

The bleeding is severe; it won’t stop unless the cause is tackled. The ‘Obidients’ think the symbol of their anger could do it if he becomes our president. I smiled seeing their huge crowds in cities on October 1; they copied our security forces with shows-of-force. But street rallies of a hundred million urban dudes won’t win elections. Even if they all vote, they may win the vote but they will lose the count. If I were one of them, and in their strategy room, I would pin on the wall Joseph Stalin’s words of electoral warning: “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election; the people who count the votes do.” If you know these Obidients, please tell them to dismount their excitable saddles and listen to those words. They should establish structures in all of Nigeria’s 176,974 polling units, 8,809 electoral wards and 774 local government areas. The time and energy they spend in ostentatious display of figures can be more productively used to prepare for the day of battle. It is 144 days to the presidential election. Their main opponents, Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, are in every unit, every ward, every local government area, oiling their machines.

The English man says a word to the wise is enough. We don’t give a whole word as counsel where I come from. We give half. I should, therefore, let the Obidients be – at least for now. I should even leave Buhari with his toothpick and his rocking chair. His masquerade has 238 more days to do what he does with the costume and the cane in his hand. We cannot stop him from dancing towards the fragrance of retirement and from his repair to the sanctuary of opulence. But some people hatched the 2015 snake and reinforced the serpent in 2019. They now routinely run abroad to catch fresh air. They return to hit our streets with the claim of their turn to wear the costume and wield the cane. They sold sand as brown sugar, now they demand we should pay them, not with stones, but with the glorious crown of our future. But our elders are saying that whoever birthed the monster is the mother and she it is that must girdle the baby (eni t’ó bá bí omo òràn ni yóò pòn-ón). So, Tinubu and his ‘change’ agents may ‘japa’ to London – and even to Iceland (where the sun never sets), they will always be asked, whenever they come back here, to share in Buhari’s legacies.

The presidential election will hold in four months, three weeks’ time. We are already dancing towards our next mistake. The vultures are circling the carrion of the incumbent’s leftover. Sadly, the people who are supposed to lead the charge are excusing the rot. Everyone is angling for the next elections and the personal advantages the polls are likely to confer. “The only way to reveal the true nature of power is through the cries and the stories of the oppressed people who are the victims of that power,” said Yong-Bok Kim in his ‘Messianic Politics.’ But those cries and stories reveal nothing here. We reinforce failure with a revalidation of bad terms. The inheritors of Nigeria’s widow have managed so well to keep their crowd. There is the viral WhatsApp message which speaks to this: “They can’t pay ASUU because they (lecturers) did not work for six months, yet they have been paying refinery workers for over ten years now even when they haven’t refined a drop of oil. On top of that, they still promote the workers to the next level even with the refineries being shut.” I saw a version of it on Omoyele Sowore’s Facebook wall; I saw it on a few others’. The author is thus not clearly known but he or she did not drop the message and just walk away. The person remembered to wonder: “And you still see people queue behind this mind-blowing fraud.” And I quietly add: They are doing more than queuing; they are eating their tormentors’ poo. This has no class; professors who got their pay last in January are mounting campaigns for them too – malaria corpses are voting for mosquitoes; they are deploying excuses – ethnic, religious.

 

Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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Strictly Personal

Economic policies must be local, By Lekan Sote

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With 32.70 per cent headline inflation, 40.20 per cent food inflation, and bread inflation of 45 per cent, all caused by the removal of subsidies from petrol and electricity, and the government’s policy of allowing market forces to determine the value of the Naira, Nigerians are reeling under high cost of living.

 

The observation by Obi Alfred Achebe of Onitsha, that “The wellbeing of the people has declined more steeply in the last months,” leads to doubts about the “Renewed Hope” slogan of President Bola Tinubu’s government that is perceived as extravagant, whilst asking Nigerians to be patient and wait for its unfolding economic policies to mature.

 

It doesn’t look as if it will abate soon, Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, who seems ready to hike electricity tariffs again, recently argued that the N225 per kilowatt hour of electricity that Discos charge Band A premium customers is lower than the N750 and N950 respective costs of running privately-owned petrol or diesel generators.

 

While noting that 129 million, or 56 per cent of Nigerians are trapped below poverty line, the World Bank revealed that real per capita Gross Domestic Product, which disregards the service industry component, is yet to recover from the pre-2016 economic depression under the government of Muhammadu Buhari.

 

This has led many to begin to doubt the government’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund-inspired neo-liberal economic policies that seem to have further impoverished poor Nigerians, practically eliminated the middle class, and is making the rich also cry.

 

Yet the World Bank, which is not letting up, recently pontificated that “previous domestic policy missteps (based mainly on its own advice) are compounding the shocks of rising inflation (that is) eroding the purchasing power of the people… and this policy is pushing many (citizens) into poverty.”

 

It zeroes in by asking Nigeria to stay the gruelling course, which Ibukun Omole thinks “is nothing more than a manifesto for exploitation… a blatant attempt to continue the cycle of exploitation… a tool of imperialism, promoting the same policies that have kept Nigeria under the thumb of… neocolonial agenda for decades.”

 

When Indermilt Gill, Senior Vice President of the World Bank, told the 30th Summit of Nigeria’s Economic Summit Group, in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, that Nigerians may have to endure the harrowing economic conditions for another 10 to 15 years, attendees murmured but didn’t walk out on him because of Nigerian’s tradition of politeness to guests.

 

Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, who agrees with the World Bank that “purchasing power has dwindled,” also thinks that “these (World Bank-inspired) policies, usually handed down by arm-twisting compulsions, are not working.”

 

What seems to be trending now is the suggestion that because these neo-liberal policies do not seem to be helping the economy and the citizens of Nigeria, at least in the short term, it would be better to think up homegrown solutions to Nigeria’s economic problems.

 

Late Speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, is quoted to have quipped that, at the end of the day, “All politics is local.” He may have come to that conclusion after observing that it takes the locals in a community to know what is best for them.

 

This aphorism must apply to economics, a field of study that is derived from sociology, which is the study of the way of life of a people. Proof of this is in “The Wealth of Nations,” written by Adam Smith, who is regarded as the first scholar of economics.

 

In his Introduction to the Penguin Classics edition of “The Wealth of Nations,” Andrew Skinner observes: “Adam Smith was undoubtedly the remarkable product of a remarkable age and one whose writing clearly reflects the intellectual, social and economic conditions of the period.”

 

To drive the point home that Smith’s book was written for his people and his time, Skinner reiterated that “the general ‘philosophy,’ which it contained was so thoroughly in accord with the aspirations and circumstances of his age.”

 

In a Freudian slip of the Darwinist realities of the Industrial Revolution that birthed individualism, capitalism, and global trade, Smith averred that “How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principle in his nature which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasures of seeing it.”

 

And, he let it slip that capitalism is for the advantage of Europe when he confessed that “Europe, by not leaving things at perfect liberty (the so-called Invisible Hand), occasions… inequities,” by “restraining the competition in some trades to a smaller number… increasing it in others beyond what it naturally would be… and… free circulation of labour (or expertise) and stocks (goods) both from employment to employment and from place to place!”

 

Policymakers, who think Bretton Woods institutions will advise policies to replicate the success of the Euro-American economy in Nigeria must be daydreaming. After advising elimination of subsidy, as global best practices that reflect market forces, they failed to suggest that Nigeria’s N70,000 monthly minimum wage, neither reflects the realities of the global marketplace, nor Section 16(2,d) of Nigeria’s Constitution, which suggests a “reasonable national minimum living wage… for all citizens.”

 

After Alex Sienart, World Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria, pointed out that the wage increase will directly affect the lives of only 4.1 per cent of Nigerians, he suggested that Nigeria needed more productive jobs to reduce poverty. But he neither explained “productive jobs,” nor suggested how to create them.

 

In admitting past wrong economic policies that the World Bank recommended for Nigeria, its former President, Jim Yong Kim, confessed, “I think the World Bank has to take responsibility for having emphasized hard infrastructure –roads, rails, energy– for a long time…

 

“There is still the bias that says we will invest in hard infrastructure, and then we grow rich, (and) we will have enough money to invest in health and education. (But) we are now saying that’s the wrong approach, that you’ve got to start investing in your people.”

 

Kim is a Korean-American physician, health expert, and anthropologist, whose Harvard University and Brown University Ivy League background shapes his decidedly “Pax American” worldview of America’s dominance of the world economy.

 

Despite his do-gooder posturing, his diagnoses and prescriptions still did not quite address the root cause of Nigeria’s economic woes, nor provide any solutions. They were mere diversions that stopped short of the way forward.

 

He should have advocated for the massive accumulation of capital and investments in the local production of manufacturing machinery, industrial spare parts, and raw materials—items that are currently imported, weakening Nigeria’s trade balance.

 

He should have pushed for the completion of Ajaokuta Steel Mill and helped to line up investors with managerial, technical, and financial competence to salvage Nigeria’s electricity sector, whose poor run has been described by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of Africa Development Bank, as “killing Nigerian industries.”

 

He could have assembled consultants to accelerate the conversion of Nigeria’s commuter vehicles to Compressed Natural Gas and get banks of the metropolitan economies, that hold Nigeria’s foreign reserves in their vaults, to invest their low-interest funds into Nigeria’s agriculture— so that Nigeria will no longer import foodstuffs.

 

Nigerians need homegrown solutions to their economic woes.

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