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World Bank predicts low economic growth for Madagascar in 2022

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The World Bank has forecasted a gloomy and a lower economic growth rate for the island southern African country of Madagascar for 2022.

The World Bank’s prediction is, however, at variance with the Malagasy authorities forecast of a positive growth rate of 5.4% this year.

In the framework of the initial 2022 Finance Law released by the World Bank on Friday, the global bank estimates that the Indian Ocean nation’s economic growth for the year is not expected to go beyond 2.6% this year as against 4.4% it recorded last year.

Part of the World Bank report said that Madagascar’s economy “faces new threats from new episodes of COVID-19, a series of extreme weather events and the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine in early 2022.”

“But it is the war in Ukraine that will have the greatest impact on Madagascar’s economic development, due to the slowdown in demand from trading partners and the rise in oil prices, which is expected to lead to a deterioration in the trade balance and increasing pressure on public finances,” the report continued.

Also commenting on the outcome of the report, Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, the World Bank’s Director of Operations for Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Mozambique, noted:

“In the face of new shocks and uncertainties, Madagascar needs more than ever to undertake bold reforms to accelerate growth and build resilience.

“This is a necessity to reduce poverty in the years to come and avoid a growing backwardness compared to peer countries.”

As a fallout of the gloomy forecast, the World Bank which is a key financial partner of the country, has established a number of priorities that are highlighted as particularly urgent, including a clear strategy to accelerate the immunization of people living in vulnerable situations, in urban and tourist areas.

Parts of the strategies, according to Pswarayi-Riddihough also include the restoration of essential public services and connectivity infrastructure following the recent climatic shocks, strong measures to reduce food insecurity and stimulate national agricultural production, reforms in fuel and electricity pricing, a new impetus to stimulate access to broadband and digital services and more transparency and accountability in the public sector.

This World Bank report also highlights the importance of improving the performance of public schools following the continued deterioration of learning outcomes in recent years.

“Based on new analytical findings, the World Bank suggests a new approach to improving performance that includes measures to strengthen teacher selection and evaluation, salary and school grant management, appeal mechanisms, and local community participation,” Pswarayi-Riddihough added.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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