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Party Primaries: A Week Of Daggers And Dollars by Lasisi Olagunju

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“My brother will give 15,000 dollars. Initially, he was working on 2,500 per delegate but when Ibrahim entered the race and offered 10,000, my brother had to jack his own up to 15,000. The delegates told him not to do anything for them again after winning the election.”

I eavesdropped and heard this statement in a public place last week in a south-west city. I had to double-check from a friend who was with me there. Did I hear right? My friend told me I did – and the guy truly had a brother contesting the senatorial primary of one of the big parties. I tried to do a quick calculation of how much $15,000 was in Nigeria. I thought that would translate to about N7 million per delegate for a senatorial primary! My friend told me my calculation was wrong. He said I used CBN rate. He reminded me that no one uses traceable FOREX from banks to do politics. Nigeria’s financial system feeds the black market which in turn feeds the dark world of elections in Nigeria. It is complex. The result is the American dollar you see up on the mountain and glowing at par with N600. My friend said the calculation I did was wrong; the answer should be N9 million per delegate.

A reporter filed a story to me last Friday. The report said the PDP in Imo State had instructed “all aspirants”, in writing, to give transport ‘stipends’ to delegates. The reporter quoted a memo dated 19th May, 2022 and signed by the state secretary of the party. It was an order complete with threats and figures: each House of Assembly aspirant must give each delegate N30,000; every House of Representatives aspirant must pay each delegate N50,000; every senatorial aspirant must shell out N80,000 to each delegate. So, how much is each delegate going home with after these primaries? Before you answer that question, please note that there could be as many as ten aspirants jostling for each of those tickets; note that every of the aspirants must obey the party’s order to pay. Note again that the delegates are definitely in their hundreds and each of them will vote to elect candidates for all the three posts. You can now do the calculations; it is democratic mathematics (or mathematical democracy). The PDP is a very creative party; it said the directive was to “minimise cost” and “conserve funds” during the primaries. If I did not sight a copy of the memo, I would not believe that anyone would document a vote-buying order. But it is true. In 2022 Nigeria, nothing is too ‘gross’ to do by anyone if it is about cash and power. Nothing is an inhibition again. There is no public opinion; the powerful own the public and its opinion.

A political system defined solely by money cannot be a democracy. The oracle of our political dictionary needs to be consulted for guidance on what we run and what it should be called. Our people, very long ago, stopped voting without being paid. If you tell delegates of this week that exchanging votes for dollars is not democracy, they will ask you what it is. They would likely ask you what you think of our ancestors who declared that unless the young eat kola nut, the elders must not be allowed to have the throne (Omodé ‘ò j›obì; àgbà ‘ò j›oyè)? The young here is the voter; the monied aspirant/candidate is the elder.

A friend›s surname is Olówóyeyè (the rich fits the throne); another is Olówólàgbà (the rich is the elder). Olówópòròkú was a popular politician in Ekiti State; his name means ‹the rich wins all arguments.› There was a man called Akinpelu Obisesan in Ibadan of the late 19th to mid-20th centuries. He was a contemporary of Ibadan›s ultra-rich Salami Agbaje and Adebisi Idiikan (1882-1938). Those rich two were the real big men in the big town while Obisesan was always in despair, always sulking and in self-pitying slough because of his relative poverty. He always compared his fate with those of those two and wondered where he chose his own head from. Obisesan kept a diary which is a valuable record of wealth and misery and debt; of how money made chiefs and how it deposed chiefs. He wrote about the meaninglessness of life without money in the world he lived. The diarist, in a moment of want and self-pity, wrote: “Nobody in this town will regard anyone of no means; he will be counted as no man…. after all, what is our intelligence, our school going, and reading of books without getting money to back these three things up?” He noted in particular that if you had money, you could jump steps on life›s social ladder and confound those who thought they were eagles with great wings, and had flown before. With money, all things are possible. He was right. On 26 November, 1926, Adebisi, ‹man of means›, ploughed into Ibadan chieftaincy, jumped 10 rungs of the ladder and was installed Ashaju (Asiwaju) Baale of Ibadan. An astonished Obisesan witnessed this and exclaimed in his diary that, truly, money “is the god of the world.” With this week›s party primaries, you will see greater wonders.

What sort of politics can money buy? American author, Jaime Lowe, asked that question in an April 6, 2022 article in the New York Times. And, it is not the only question he asked in that incisive piece. Indeed, Lowe›s article has the intriguing title: «With ‘Stealth Politics,’ Billionaires Make Sure Their Money Talks. What do they actually want?» His answer to the first question is: “It’s hard to know exactly…” And I think it fits the second question as well. Behind politicians who are buying every available delegate with every currency of worth are standing very quiet, wealthy people with various masked agenda. The ultra-rich are a dangerous riddle; they are everywhere, even when you are not seeing them. What they want is definitely not power for power›s sake. Yet, till eternity we won›t be able to answer questions on what they want and why they want it. Benjamin Page, an American political scientist cited by Lowe, provides an insight: “The main reason billionaires practise stealth politics is that taken collectively, their political preferences do not align with what a majority of the (people) want.” The mind of the super-rich, anywhere in the world, is deep and unfathomable especially where money and power are in contention. That is why I say that this week of decision in Nigeria is actually a billionaires› week. It is also a week of cloak-and-dagger negotiations. The super-rich have closed down the economy; they are mopping up every dollar available to buy delegates and choose our governors, lawmakers and president for us this week. They are locking the choices and narrowing the options down to their men. After this season of primaries, they will go back to their rocking chair and leave you, the poor, to choose from their choices and claim the credit on election day next year.

Contesting the presidency of Nigeria is an ultra-rich billionaires› sport. Two weeks ago, I had an engagement with Chief Dele Momodu, celebrity journalist and PDP presidential aspirant. It was a long discussion. We exchanged books and ideas and spoke briefly on the golden days at Great Ife. Then the journalist in him tried me. He said he was interested in my story. I smiled and changed the course. A reporter›s story hardly makes any headline. In today›s Nigeria, the aspirant is the news; and so, I launched out. Where did he get the gut, the audacity to say he wanted to be president of Nigeria? It is awesome that he paid the N40 million PDP nomination fee but that is just about one percent of what it takes to be president of Nigeria or of anywhere. He told me that he might not be a billionaire but he had enough men of means around him to put the wind behind his sail. He said he would compete and prevail over those whose only endowment and qualification for the top job is money. Besides, he added, billionaires don›t get the Nigerian presidency; they always fail to clinch the throne. I wanted to ask why he thought it was so but he didn›t wait for me to ask: You don›t hand over political power to a man who already has economic power. If we do that, we will lose our country to mindless oligarchs. That was his submission. And he cited examples. Momodu said he had paid his dues and was determined to make a statement that what others did badly, he could do well and excel there for the good of the people. I took a long look at him; I did not see a man who was joking. But is the pathway to his ambition not mired by the peculiarities of Nigeria›s presidential politics? And he is doing this not in a fringe, panting party, but right in the power house of a money-guzzling behemoth, the PDP. It takes guts and lots of cash to do that.

What I heard from Dele Momodu two weeks ago was what Dr. Kayode Fayemi of the APC told his party people in Kaduna State last Friday. “I am not a moneybag,” he said, “but I know that this job has never gone to a moneybag…” Fayemi said he had no billions, but like Momodu, he was truthful enough to let us know that he had friends big enough to keep him afloat in this game of sharks. He then challenged the people (delegates) to let the future of their children be a priority over immediate gains. We need more of such sermons from the throne. Dr Fayemi is my friend and person. But I wish I could tell him and Dele Momodu and the few other men of ideas in this contest that head or tail, the billionaire owners of Nigeria always win. They own the yam and the knife; they only use the hands of the victim victor to peel the tuber. The vultures are gathering.

The last time we voted in a presidential election, we reinforced failure. The result has been a free-fall of all values. Another election cycle has started. There is a rush to replant the old trees the old way in order to reap new results. Do we need to be told that sowing seeds of failure with an eye on harvesting fruits of success is how to know the meaning of insanity? The failure we entrenched in 2018/2019 has become a possessed Iroko; it demands daily worship from everyone, the holy and the unholy. The evil tree›s food has been blood and more blood and it won›t ever be tired unless the axe does its duty. But where is the axe? We condone evil and provide cultural contexts as excuses for misbehaviour.

Four years ago (6 August, 2018), I wrote on this page that we do with Nigeria what we don›t do with our personal lives. I said: The best should rule the rest is a cardinal order even in the animal world. And it isn’t that we don’t know what is right. We just won’t do it for Nigeria. But why? At least, we carefully choose our cooks, our drivers, the doctors who treat us; mechanics who fix our cars. We don’t accept counterfeit currencies nor do we knowingly take expired drugs. We do due diligence on that boy and that girl seeking the hand of our child in marriage. But we orphan Nigeria, we feed it poison –like talks of foisting ancestral candidates on the parties; and endorsing what may be Muslim/Muslim or Christian/Christian tickets and other toxic, suffocating stuffs. Wisdom is the pill Nigeria needs from us. But we did not inherit that from our masters, the British. Power here, at all levels, goes to the weakest, the unlettered, the unskilled, the unwise, the sick, the bigoted who is backed with real money. And so the country is crippled in the hands of deadly fake doctors serially hired to manage our case. By this time next week, the candidates will be known. And by then, we will know how clearly hopeless our situation is.

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Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

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In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

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Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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