VenturesNow

Russia strikes Ukraine in war of neighbours. Why Africa should be concerned

Published

2 years ago

March 3, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 is casting a long shadow across Africa – a devastating effect on some African states, threatening their economies and could also benefit the continent in some ways.

As devastating as it is, some African countries may benefit from a shift in global markets away from Russia due to the crisis. The short-term potential impacts on economic livelihoods are worrying while the implications for pan-African solidarity and adherence to multilateralism are increasingly uncertain.

There are important ties between Ukraine and Africa, including more than 8,000 Moroccans and 4,000 Nigerians studying in Ukraine and over $4 billion in exports from Ukraine to Africa.

Though, African leaders have come under diplomatic pressure to take sides in the escalating feud between Russia and Western powers, African Union (AU) has called on Russia to respect international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty.

In a statement on Feb. 24, AU chair Macky Sall and AU Commission chair Moussa Faki called on Russia and Ukraine to establish a ceasefire and open political negotiations “to preserve the world from the consequences of planetary conflict.”
Kenya, Gabon, and Ghana spoke out against the escalating conflict at an emergency meeting for the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 21, but most African countries have remained quiet.

South Africa, on Feb. 23 asked Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

How will the ongoing conflict affect Africans?

Russia is one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers. The sanctions on Russia, especially by the United States of America, would linger inflation, high prices of gas in the countries which is a giant headache for American President, Joe Biden.

With this, few countries are sensing long-term growth opportunities from the crisis specifically, Africa’s natural gas could reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.

The budgets of oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Angola might get a boost from the rising prices, but the cost of transport is likely to rise for people across the continent. This will have a knock-on effect on the prices of nearly all other products.

“It becomes a double whammy of potentially higher food prices globally and higher energy prices pushing up inflation. And when central banks respond by hiking interest rates, it becomes a triple whammy,” said Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital.

But the editor of the UK-based Africa Confidential publication, Patrick Smith, said the war offered massive opportunities for oil- and gas-producing countries.

“Europe has to rapidly find alternatives to Russian gas, and the most reliable alternatives are in Africa. It’s a great opportunity for African states to move in, and get new deals done quickly,” he added.

Besides natural gas, further sanctions on Russia might benefit other natural resource exporters in the region. For instance, South Africa is, after Russia, the world’s second-biggest producer of palladium—a critical input into automobiles and electronics—and therefore could experience growing demand as a result of international sanctions placed on Russia. Similarly, as a major exporter of gold, the South African rand has been strengthening as a result of rising global prices for precious metals.

Several other countries could similarly benefit from Europe’s energy diversification, including Senegal, where 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were discovered between 2014 and 2017 and where production is expected to start later this year. Nigeria, already a supplier of liquified natural gas (LNG) to several European countries, is also embarking with Niger and Algeria on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to increase exports of natural gas to European markets. On February 16, the three countries signed an agreement to develop the pipeline, estimated to cost $13 billion. Europe is likely to be a key financer, bolstered by the EU’s controversial decision in early February to label investments in natural gas as “green” energy.

VenturesNow

Somalia secures $4.5bn debt relief from lenders

Published

1 hour ago

December 10, 2023

Ifeoluwa Dada

After a decade-long process of negotiations and reforms with creditors, Somalia has finally secured a $4.5 billion debt write-off from global lenders as the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative has spared the nation from repaying its debt.

The World Bank reports that the country’s debt has significantly decreased from a peak of $5.2 billion to $600 million as a result of the action taken by multilateral and bilateral lenders, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Commercial creditors have contributed $3 billion towards the debt relief, with multilateral creditors contributing $573.1 million, the World Bank’s International Development Association contributing $448.5 million, the IMF contributing $343.2 million, and the African Development Fund contributing $131 million.

Following the Bretton Woods institutions’y boards’ approval process, a historic announcement regarding Somalia’s debt forgiveness is scheduled to take place in Washington DC on December 13.

HIPC completion points were reached by 37 nations, with Somalia following suit after Zimbabwe and Sudan were left behind. Under the leadership of the current president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia began holding HIPC talks ten years ago, and the nation has continued on the reform path despite political obstacles.

Kristina Svensson, the country manager for Somalia at the World Bank, praised Mogadishu for its “remarkable” commitment to reform last week.

“There have been a lot of political challenges within Somalia, but this thing (principles of HIPC), has held it quite high,” she said.

“This is satisfactory for them (Somalia) to achieve debt relief,” said Ms. Svensson. “Both the World Bank and IMF as well as other international partners, have been essential to providing technical assistance to support the achievement of these triggers.”

Over the past few weeks, Somalia has achieved huge milestones in its efforts towards socioeconomic and political liberation. It recently joined regional bloc, East Africa Community (EAC), as it seeks strategic partnerships with neighbours.

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IMF advises Nigeria’s central bank to raise Monetary Policy Rate

Published

7 hours ago

December 10, 2023

Ifeoluwa Dada

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Nigeria’s central bank (CBN) to further hike Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).

The IMF Director of Communications, Ms. Julie Kozack, in Washington DC, United States of America,
on Saturday stressing that the liquidity mop-up being undertaken by the CBN was already addressing the high inflationary rate of over 27%, but the rate must be further adjusted at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

The IMF chief also commended recent policy actions on the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of exchange rates by the Nigerian government.

Nigeria’s short-term interest rate was reported at 17.67 % pa in Oct 2023, compared with 8.67 % pa in the previous month. The data reached an all-time high of 22.95 % pa in Mar 2012 and a record low of 0.36 % pa in Nov 2020.

In her response to questions on Nigeria, she noted that “President Tinubu has implemented two bold and important reforms shortly after taking office.

“The first is on fuel subsidies. Nigeria’s fuel subsidies were costly, especially for the budget, and not well targeted to provide relief for vulnerable households, and so this was rectified. And the second was unifying of the official exchange rate and that removed long standing distortions of the multiple exchange rate system.

“You asked a specific question on inflation. Inflation in Nigeria is running very high. It reached over 27 percent in October, that is the year-on-year number.

“The Central bank, under its new leadership, has started to withdraw excess liquidity that was in the system and contributing to high inflation.

“The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting should further raise policy interest rate. So, the Central bank is taking action to try to address the high inflation problem. As we mentioned in our Article IV Consultation, which was held in February of 2023, raising revenue from the very current low revenue to GDP ratio of 9 percent is essential to create fiscal space for social and development spending. 9 percent of GDP is a very low revenue to GDP ratio, and it is really not high enough to be able to support strong social safety nets, and development spending, to help protect vulnerable households and also to meet Nigeria’s development needs.

”The 2024 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit while also creating space for these priority spendings, both on the social side and also on the development side.”