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Inflation rate rises to 15.70% in Nigeria as sustained fuel scarcity bites harder

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Nigeria’s official data source, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the rate of increase in the price of goods and services, rose to 15.70 percent in February 2022, amid soaring fuel prices and scarcity.

The latest CPI, according to the NBS “is 1.63 percent points lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2021 (17.33) percent but the highest since October 2021 (15.99%).

This means that the headline inflation rate slowed down in February when compared to the same month in the previous year”.

According to the report, increases were recorded in all classifications of individual consumption according to purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the headline index.

The simple meaning of inflation is a “sustained upward movement in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy. Holding all else constant, this corresponds with a loss of purchasing power for a currency utilized within the economy”.

That is, your ₦500 now behaves like ₦450, by virtue of what could be purchased with it.

The report further says  “On month-on-month basis, the headline index increased to 1.63 percent in February 2022, this is 0.16 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in January 2022 (1.47) percent,”

“Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index. On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased to 1.63 percent in February 2022, this is 0.16 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in January 2022 (1.47) percent”

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending February 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 16.73 percent, showing 0.14 percent point from 16.87 percent recorded in January 2022.

The urban inflation rate increased to 16.25 percent (year-on-year) in February 2022 from 17.92 percent recorded in February 2021, while the rural inflation rate increased to 15.18 percent in February 2022 from 16.77 percent in February 2021.

Nigeria’s current inflation rate is not unconnected with the recent fuel scarcity that has hit the country Nigeria’s statistician-general, Simon Harry, hinted last month  “As you are bringing your commodities to the market for sale, you will be thinking of adding some amount on the selling costs so that you will be able to recover the costs of transportation”

“So that gives us a negative signal that is capable of affecting not just inflation rate, but also other macro-economic variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and even the unemployment rate.

“I can, however, assure you that certainly, it is not the best for the economy and if we must maintain a stable macroeconomic environment, this kind of crisis certainly is not the best for it is not needed.”

In 2021, Nigeria’s inflation rate was projected to reach 16 percent. In January 2021, the inflation rate in urban areas of Nigeria grew by 17 percent compared to the previous months, while the rural inflation rate experienced an increase of 15.9 percent. In 2020, Nigeria recorded one of the highest inflation rates worldwide.

 

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion multi-sector investments from AfDB— Official

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Nigeria has received $10.9 billion from the African Development Bank (AfDB), comprising $4.9 billion in public and private sector initiatives.

AfDB Director-General of the West Africa Region, Lamin Barrow, said the bank’s Nigeria funding approvals total $10.9 billion since it started operations.

Barrow made the revelation at the Second Interactive Session and Workshop on Developing Bankable Business Proposals/Business Plans for Youths in Agriculture in Abuja on Monday.

It was part of the bank’s 60th anniversary celebrations with stakeholders. Nigeria is the AfDB’s largest shareholder, and the bank’s relationship with it has grown, Barrow said.

The AfDB invests in Nigeria’s energy, power, transport, water, and sanitation infrastructure.

“Over the last 60 years, the Bank has grown into a trusted partner and the continent’s premier development financial institution.

“Our cooperation with Nigeria has expanded over the years, especially considering that Nigeria is the largest shareholder.

“Since it started operations in the country, cumulative financing approvals have reached 10.9 billion dollars and our portfolio currently stands at 4.9 billion dollars supporting projects in the public and private sectors,” he said.

After taking office eight years ago, AfDB President Dr Akinwumi Adesina prioritized the High 5—Power, Feed, Industrialize, Integrate, and Improve Africa’s quality of life—Barrow added. He said these were accelerators for achieving the SDGs and Agenda 2063 ambitions. The projects and programs supported during this time have reportedly affected over 400 million individuals.

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Analysts expect Egypt’s economy to rise 4.0% in 2024/25

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A recent study that sampled seventeen economists by Reuters has predicted slower economic growth for Egypt in April after a $8 billion IMF accord in March.

The median projection for GDP growth in the fiscal year starting July 1 was 4%, down from 4.35% in April and 4.15% in January.

The poll predicted the GDP grew 2.9% in the fiscal year ending June 30. This is below their April and January predictions of 3% and 3.5%. Poll: 2025/26 growth should rise to 4.99%.

After the IMF agreement, Capital Economics’ James Swanston predicted slower growth due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and a weaker pound.

“The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year, but there are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY2025/26 onward,” Swanston said.

Egyptian tourism and Suez Canal revenue have slowed due to the Gaza crisis, which has cut Egypt’s foreign revenue by more than half.

Egypt’s planning ministry predicted 4.2% growth in 2024/25 on June 2. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to fall to 49.50 per dollar by June 2025 and 52.50 by June 2026.

Before dropping it in March 2024, the central bank kept the pound at 30.85 per dollar. It’s roughly 48.40 per dollar.

The survey forecast 20.5% headline inflation in 2024/25 and 12.05% in 2025/26. In June, inflation dropped to 27.5% from a record high of 38.0% in September, exceeding the central bank’s objective of 5%-9%.

The analysts expect the central bank’s overnight lending rate to drop to 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

Foreign money shortages have slowed the Egyptian economy. However, a $24 billion real estate transaction with the UAE in late February, a significant currency devaluation, and a $8 billion IMF accord in early March have mitigated that.

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