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Nigeria’s Buhari confident of win in 2019. Are his boasts empty?

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Nigerians are weighing in on President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances in the presidential poll slated for 2019. On Friday, the man himself expressed confidence that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will win the 2019 general elections.

Buhari boasted that his party’s victory was imminent, stating that only the blind would fail to notice that victory lay ahead.

His Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, quoted the President as speaking in that regard while receiving, in his hometown of Daura, Katsina State, the representatives of the 34 chairmen of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria.

Buhari said the string of victories recorded by the APC in bye-elections in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi States was sufficient proof that 2019 elections would be won by the party.

“Coming against the backdrop of the victory in Ekiti governorship election, the string of victory by our party, the APC, is a clear indication of the way things will go in 2019.

‘‘For those who are discerning; those who have ears and eyes they will see, hear and understand.

“Those who don’t understand are entitled to their mistaken assumptions.”

The President said the victories in the recent polls were “signs of things to come,” he said.

Buhari’s boasts have, however, attracted very strong reactions from critics and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

A former lawmaker and a well known critic of President Buhari, Junaid Mohammed, doubts his claim to being an autocrat.

He said, “The boast as far as I am concerned, the man Buhari is not a democrat and he is incapable of learning to become one.

“I sincerely hope that the 2019 elections come and happen the way normal elections should hold because if what we saw happen in Ondo, Ekiti and the last three Senatorial bye elections in Katsina, Kogi, and Bauchi is what they refer to as an election, then I doubt if we are going to have an election worth its name.

“If we call it an election because people have gone to vote and there was no too much violence, but a humongous amount of money was doled out to voters in exchange for their ballots; will the election be worth anything? I doubt.”

On its part, the PDP advised Buhari and the ruling All Progressives Congress not to be deluded into believing that it had the 2019 elections all wrapped up.

Read Also: When Nigerian lawmakers shun work. All the high-wire politics and why it matters

Secondus said: “President Buhari is being deceived by those who are not familiar with politics of their states that they would deliver results to him.

“The President and the APC would be shocked with the level of their rejection by the electorate come 2019. Winning of elections is not about boasting. What will the President tell Nigerians that he has done for them? What will he tell workers he has done for them? What will he tell Nigerians he has done about the economy, job creation and others?

“Will Nigerians vote for someone who will not stay in the country to administer the country, but would choose to be junketing all over the world?

“We know he relies on security agencies and INEC to rig for him, but we want to assure him that the people are determined to put an end to the misery he and his government have brought to the nation.”

Analysts predict a very close race in 2019. Buhari’s cult-like following in northern Nigeria is still talked about as one that could work in his favour. In the northwest, north-central and northeast, the emergence of former governors Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and incumbent Senate President Bukola Saraki as aspirants has done little to sway the views of some close watchers of the polity.

This body of analysts maintain that Buhari’s confidence is buoyed by the tremendous support coming from the Southwest which for a while has been under the firm control of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who continues to voice strong backing for the incumbent President.

There are indications, however, that the general elections would not be a walkover for APC. The forces massed against Buhari are not just those organized by PDP. The emergence of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) said to be pro PDP remains a major headache though APC maintains that it also has an amalgam of other parties willing to back her in the coming polls.

APC’s biggest huddle yet would certainly be the open conspiracy by former military rulers Ibrahim Babangida, Olusegun Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma to truncate Buhari’s rule. Collectively, they have branded him incompetent, nepotistic and incapable of addressing the security challenges facing the country, particularly the largely perceived ethnic cleansing in the north-central States of Benue and Plateau.

They have not hidden their intentions to work with others to overthrow APC in 2019.

Politics

Somalia warns corporations over independence of Somaliland

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Somalia promises to follow through on its threat to penalise corporations that misidentify or conduct business as if Somaliland were a separate entity.

By September 1, all companies operating in Somalia, according to Mogadishu, should have updated their network platforms to show that Somaliland is a part of Somalia.

The Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI) of Somalia ordered businesses to remove the name of Somaliland, the self-declared separate territory, from their network information sites, using the country’s interim constitution as justification.

The announcement, which also served as a warning to other remittance dealers and businesses to cease using the name Somaliland and instead use Somalia, gave particular names to money transfer companies such as Paysii, Dahabshil, and Jubba Express.

Ethiopian Airlines, which operates flights to Mogadishu and Hargeisa, was also held accountable for mislabeling the destination of Somaliland as a separate entity.

“Use Somalia only in your systems as from 1st of September (this year),” Commerce and Industry Minister Jibril Abdirashid Haji Abdi had said on August 24.

Airlines using Somali airports were also instructed by the Somali Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) to cease referring to cities like Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, as being distinct from Somalia.

However, the issue reflects what has happened since Ethiopia and Somaliland signed an agreement on January 2 of this year, whereby Addis Ababa might acquire a coastal strip for the construction of a naval station in exchange for Somaliland’s recognition—which it has been fighting for since 1991 without success.

Due to Mogadishu’s irritation with the MoU, it has protested at every international conference, charging Ethiopia with a plot to split up Somalia. On the other hand, Somaliland maintains that Mogadishu has declined to acknowledge the true issue.

First Secretary Ismail Shirwac of the Somaliland Liaison Mission in Nairobi stated that Somalia ought to attend to the issues of Somaliland rather than start a dispute with Ethiopia.

“The core of the matter lies in Somaliland exercising its sovereign right to enter into international agreements, as we did with the UAE’s DP World, while Somalia continues to assert that Somaliland is part of Somalia and, therefore, cannot engage in such agreements independently.”

In December 2020, Somalia severed diplomatic ties with Kenya, citing Nairobi’s meddling in internal matters in Mogadishu following the leader of Somaliland’s visit to Nairobi. It re-established contact after six months. In 2019, it severed its connections with Guinea for extending a red carpet greeting to the leader of Somaliland, Muse Bihi.

Formerly known as the British Somaliland Protectorate, Somaliland gained independence from the United Kingdom on June 26, 1960, and on July 1st, 1960, it willingly united with Italian Somaliland to establish the Somali Republic.

Following the overthrow of Siad Barre’s administration on May 18, 1991, the area unilaterally declared its independence. Since then, it has had de facto self-rule, functioning democracy, its central bank, and its currency.

Corporations have been evaluating business wins and losses thus far. For example, Ethiopian Airlines, which operated two daily flights to Mogadishu and six combat destinations, was forced to face the harsh reality of losing business in Somalia.

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Politics

Tunisia: Presidential contender Zammel remains in detention despite being legally discharged

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After being arrested on Monday, and his release ordered by a judge on Thursday, Tunisian presidential contender, Ayachi Zammel, remained in custody as of Friday, his campaign staff reported.

Zammel is one of three candidates approved by Tunisia’s electoral commission for an Oct. 6 presidential election that opposition sources allege is rigged for President Kais Saied.

Authorities accuse him of electoral irregularities.

He was reportedly released from police custody for the first time before being re-arrested. But he remained in prison Friday, his campaign staff told Reuters. Mahadi Abdel Jawed: “Zammel was arrested minutes after his release last night.”

For next month’s election, he’s accused of fraudulent voter forms. All candidates must submit 10,000 supporter forms to run. He denies accusations.

Zammel says he is restricted and intimidated since he is a serious Saied competitor. He promises democracy, liberties, and economic recovery for Tunisia.

Saied was democratically elected in 2019, but he took power by fiat in 2021, which the opposition called a coup.

Major political forces argue that Saied’s rule has damaged Tunisia’s 2011 revolution’s democratic accomplishments.

Human rights groups and opposition parties have accused the government of employing arbitrary limitations to re-elect Saied.

Presidential elections in Tunisia are scheduled for October 6, 2024. These are the first presidential elections since President Kais Saied’s 2021 coup attempt.

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