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Nigeria’s Buhari confident of win in 2019. Are his boasts empty?

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Nigerians are weighing in on President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances in the presidential poll slated for 2019. On Friday, the man himself expressed confidence that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will win the 2019 general elections.

Buhari boasted that his party’s victory was imminent, stating that only the blind would fail to notice that victory lay ahead.

His Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, quoted the President as speaking in that regard while receiving, in his hometown of Daura, Katsina State, the representatives of the 34 chairmen of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria.

Buhari said the string of victories recorded by the APC in bye-elections in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi States was sufficient proof that 2019 elections would be won by the party.

“Coming against the backdrop of the victory in Ekiti governorship election, the string of victory by our party, the APC, is a clear indication of the way things will go in 2019.

‘‘For those who are discerning; those who have ears and eyes they will see, hear and understand.

“Those who don’t understand are entitled to their mistaken assumptions.”

The President said the victories in the recent polls were “signs of things to come,” he said.

Buhari’s boasts have, however, attracted very strong reactions from critics and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

A former lawmaker and a well known critic of President Buhari, Junaid Mohammed, doubts his claim to being an autocrat.

He said, “The boast as far as I am concerned, the man Buhari is not a democrat and he is incapable of learning to become one.

“I sincerely hope that the 2019 elections come and happen the way normal elections should hold because if what we saw happen in Ondo, Ekiti and the last three Senatorial bye elections in Katsina, Kogi, and Bauchi is what they refer to as an election, then I doubt if we are going to have an election worth its name.

“If we call it an election because people have gone to vote and there was no too much violence, but a humongous amount of money was doled out to voters in exchange for their ballots; will the election be worth anything? I doubt.”

On its part, the PDP advised Buhari and the ruling All Progressives Congress not to be deluded into believing that it had the 2019 elections all wrapped up.

Read Also: When Nigerian lawmakers shun work. All the high-wire politics and why it matters

Secondus said: “President Buhari is being deceived by those who are not familiar with politics of their states that they would deliver results to him.

“The President and the APC would be shocked with the level of their rejection by the electorate come 2019. Winning of elections is not about boasting. What will the President tell Nigerians that he has done for them? What will he tell workers he has done for them? What will he tell Nigerians he has done about the economy, job creation and others?

“Will Nigerians vote for someone who will not stay in the country to administer the country, but would choose to be junketing all over the world?

“We know he relies on security agencies and INEC to rig for him, but we want to assure him that the people are determined to put an end to the misery he and his government have brought to the nation.”

Analysts predict a very close race in 2019. Buhari’s cult-like following in northern Nigeria is still talked about as one that could work in his favour. In the northwest, north-central and northeast, the emergence of former governors Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and incumbent Senate President Bukola Saraki as aspirants has done little to sway the views of some close watchers of the polity.

This body of analysts maintain that Buhari’s confidence is buoyed by the tremendous support coming from the Southwest which for a while has been under the firm control of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who continues to voice strong backing for the incumbent President.

There are indications, however, that the general elections would not be a walkover for APC. The forces massed against Buhari are not just those organized by PDP. The emergence of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) said to be pro PDP remains a major headache though APC maintains that it also has an amalgam of other parties willing to back her in the coming polls.

APC’s biggest huddle yet would certainly be the open conspiracy by former military rulers Ibrahim Babangida, Olusegun Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma to truncate Buhari’s rule. Collectively, they have branded him incompetent, nepotistic and incapable of addressing the security challenges facing the country, particularly the largely perceived ethnic cleansing in the north-central States of Benue and Plateau.

They have not hidden their intentions to work with others to overthrow APC in 2019.

Politics

Nigeria’s Tinubu to visit South Africa for bilateral talks

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In order to co-chair the 11th session of the Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission with President Cyril Ramaphosa, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu will leave France on Monday for Cape Town, South Africa.

 

A ministerial meeting is slated for December 2, 2024, in the South African Parliament Building in Cape Town, and will be followed by the presidential Bi-National Commission on Tuesday, December 3.

 

In a statement issued on Sunday, presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga stated that Tinubu and Ramaphosa will have in-depth talks on issues of mutual interest on a bilateral, regional, and global level.

 

“Building on the commitments from their meeting on June 20, 2024, in Johannesburg, shortly after President Ramaphosa’s inauguration for a second term in office, the two leaders will review the progress made since the 10th session of the BNC held in Abuja from November 29 to December 1, 2021.

 

“The 11th session of the BNC will feature deliberations across eight working groups, each focusing on a specific area of mutual interest. These include political consultations, consular and migration, banking and finance, defence and security, manufacturing, social sector, mines and energy, and trade and investments.

 

“At the high-level meeting, officials of both countries will sign several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements,” Onanuga said.

 

 

Founded in 1999, the Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission seeks to deepen the two countries’ friendship and collaboration. The inaugural Heads of State session took place in Pretoria in October 2019.

 

The BNC offers a forum for maintaining high-level discussions and encouraging cooperation in vital fields including trade, economic growth, security, and diplomacy.

 

“This year’s meeting is particularly significant as it coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Commission, a testament to the enduring friendship and cooperation between Nigeria and South Africa. President Tinubu will be accompanied by a high-level delegation comprising state governors, ministers, and senior government officials. He will return to the country after the BNC meeting,” Onanuga added.

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Mauritius PM wants independent review of UK-Chagos Islands deal

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer wants to review an October political agreement that gives Mauritius sovereignty of the Chagos Islands while securing a 99-year lease on the base.

On Thursday, the British government expressed confidence that the deal to secure the future of a U.S.-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia would be ratified.

Mauritius Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam said that he had requested an independent review of a confidential draft agreement with Britain regarding the Chagos Islands.

The agreement still has to be ratified by both parties. The arrangement has been questioned by Ramgoolam, who won an election last month. He informed lawmakers on Thursday that the results of the study will be available for his new cabinet to take into account.

The foreign ministry of Britain chose not to react. Earlier this week, British Foreign Minister David Lammy expressed his confidence that the deal would be completed, noting that the Pentagon, State Department, and U.S. intelligence agencies had all embraced it.

According to him, Britain was pleased to provide the new Mauritius administration some time to review the specifics.

When the agreement was announced, U.S. President Joe Biden backed it, but after Donald Trump takes office in January, the next government may contest it.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s choice for secretary of state, has stated that the agreement presents a major risk to American security as it gives the island, which is a key base utilised by American warships and long-range bombers, to a Chinese ally.

London kept control of the Chagos Islands after Mauritius gained independence in the 1960s, and in the 1970s, it forcefully uprooted up to 2,000 inhabitants to create room for the base.

Following years of occasionally contentious discussions, Britain announced last month that it will turn over the islands. Many of the exiled Chagossians, however, claim they were not part of the talks and are unable to support it.

According to Olivier Bancoult of the Chagos Refugees Group, which works to protect Chagossians’ rights, he hopes the assessment will be completed as soon as possible.

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