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Nigeria’s Buhari confident of win in 2019. Are his boasts empty?

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Nigerians are weighing in on President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances in the presidential poll slated for 2019. On Friday, the man himself expressed confidence that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will win the 2019 general elections.

Buhari boasted that his party’s victory was imminent, stating that only the blind would fail to notice that victory lay ahead.

His Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, quoted the President as speaking in that regard while receiving, in his hometown of Daura, Katsina State, the representatives of the 34 chairmen of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria.

Buhari said the string of victories recorded by the APC in bye-elections in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi States was sufficient proof that 2019 elections would be won by the party.

“Coming against the backdrop of the victory in Ekiti governorship election, the string of victory by our party, the APC, is a clear indication of the way things will go in 2019.

‘‘For those who are discerning; those who have ears and eyes they will see, hear and understand.

“Those who don’t understand are entitled to their mistaken assumptions.”

The President said the victories in the recent polls were “signs of things to come,” he said.

Buhari’s boasts have, however, attracted very strong reactions from critics and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

A former lawmaker and a well known critic of President Buhari, Junaid Mohammed, doubts his claim to being an autocrat.

He said, “The boast as far as I am concerned, the man Buhari is not a democrat and he is incapable of learning to become one.

“I sincerely hope that the 2019 elections come and happen the way normal elections should hold because if what we saw happen in Ondo, Ekiti and the last three Senatorial bye elections in Katsina, Kogi, and Bauchi is what they refer to as an election, then I doubt if we are going to have an election worth its name.

“If we call it an election because people have gone to vote and there was no too much violence, but a humongous amount of money was doled out to voters in exchange for their ballots; will the election be worth anything? I doubt.”

On its part, the PDP advised Buhari and the ruling All Progressives Congress not to be deluded into believing that it had the 2019 elections all wrapped up.

Read Also: When Nigerian lawmakers shun work. All the high-wire politics and why it matters

Secondus said: “President Buhari is being deceived by those who are not familiar with politics of their states that they would deliver results to him.

“The President and the APC would be shocked with the level of their rejection by the electorate come 2019. Winning of elections is not about boasting. What will the President tell Nigerians that he has done for them? What will he tell workers he has done for them? What will he tell Nigerians he has done about the economy, job creation and others?

“Will Nigerians vote for someone who will not stay in the country to administer the country, but would choose to be junketing all over the world?

“We know he relies on security agencies and INEC to rig for him, but we want to assure him that the people are determined to put an end to the misery he and his government have brought to the nation.”

Analysts predict a very close race in 2019. Buhari’s cult-like following in northern Nigeria is still talked about as one that could work in his favour. In the northwest, north-central and northeast, the emergence of former governors Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and incumbent Senate President Bukola Saraki as aspirants has done little to sway the views of some close watchers of the polity.

This body of analysts maintain that Buhari’s confidence is buoyed by the tremendous support coming from the Southwest which for a while has been under the firm control of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who continues to voice strong backing for the incumbent President.

There are indications, however, that the general elections would not be a walkover for APC. The forces massed against Buhari are not just those organized by PDP. The emergence of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) said to be pro PDP remains a major headache though APC maintains that it also has an amalgam of other parties willing to back her in the coming polls.

APC’s biggest huddle yet would certainly be the open conspiracy by former military rulers Ibrahim Babangida, Olusegun Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma to truncate Buhari’s rule. Collectively, they have branded him incompetent, nepotistic and incapable of addressing the security challenges facing the country, particularly the largely perceived ethnic cleansing in the north-central States of Benue and Plateau.

They have not hidden their intentions to work with others to overthrow APC in 2019.

Politics

Mozambique’s top court affirms governing party’s victory in recent election

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The highest court in Mozambique affirmed Monday that the incumbent Frelimo party won the October election, sparking widespread demonstrations from opposition parties who claim the vote was manipulated.

Fears of fresh bloodshed have been raised in the nation already shaken by weeks of fatal protests after Mozambique’s top electoral court mostly confirmed the results of the country’s contentious October elections, reinforcing the Frelimo party’s decades-long hold on power.

The final decision on the election process rests with the Constitutional Council. Mozambique, a nation of over 35 million people in Southern Africa that Frelimo has ruled since 1975, is expected to see more protests in response to its judgement.

Mozambique operates a framework of a semi-presidential representative democratic republic in a multi-party system. The president of Mozambique serves as both the head of state and the head of government.

The government exercises executive power. The administration and the Assembly of the Republic have the authority to enact laws.

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Alliance of Sahel States opposes ECOWAS disengagement schedule

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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) withdrawal timeline has been rejected by the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which is made up of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

The AES claims that the ECOWAS is attempting to destabilise their newly formed organisation.

During a meeting last week in Abuja, Nigeria, the regional organisation announced a six-month withdrawal period to give the three nations time to change their minds after their official departure date at the end of January 2025.

However, this decision is “nothing more than yet another attempt by the French and its auxiliaries to continue planning and carrying out destabilising actions against the AES,” according to the heads of state of the AES.

“This unilateral decision is not binding on the ESA countries,” the statement continues. Before the conference, they stated that their choice to leave the organisation was “irreversible.”

According to the president of the Ecowas Commission, this will be a “transition period” that ends on “July 29, 2025” to “keep the doors of Ecowas open.”

The three nations accused the bloc of neglecting to assist them in resolving their domestic security challenges and of imposing “inhumane and irresponsible” sanctions related to the coup.

The three nations that were involved in the coup have mostly rejected ECOWAS’ attempts to undo their withdrawal. They are creating their alliance and have begun thinking about how to issue travel passports independently of ECOWAS.

It is anticipated that they will finish giving their one-year notice of departure in January.

Visa-free travel to other ECOWAS members is a significant perk of membership, and it is unclear how this would alter after the three nations exit the group.

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