Strictly Personal

How Ghana can map its energy transition journey by Nafi Chinery

Published

2 years ago

April 11, 2022

All countries have a vital role and interest in avoiding catastrophic climate impacts and safeguarding a livable planet. Like the citizens of most developing countries, Ghanaians are increasingly affected by climate change, despite bearing little responsibility for the emissions that are causing it.

At the COP26 climate conference last year, governments reaffirmed their commitment to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Achieving this will require a colossal and unprecedented shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like wind and solar — as well as the provision of clean, affordable and reliable energy for the nearly one billion people currently living without it.

The wealthiest countries that have polluted the most should hold the primary responsibility for tackling climate change, both in cutting their emissions first and fastest, and in providing climate finance and support to countries like Ghana. Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo emphasised this responsibility during COP26 when he called for a fair and equitable solution that “recognises the historical imbalances between the high emitters and low emitters.”

To date, however, wealthy countries have under-promised and underdelivered. They have yet to reduce emissions to the extent necessary to avoid warming beyond 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. And, as President Akufo-Addo also mentioned, they have failed to honour their 2010 promise of $100 billion per year to support developing countries’ responses to climate change. Tragically, the consequences will be felt by all for decades to come.

Ghana’s agency in the energy transition

Despite this compound injustice and these broken promises, Ghana’s future ultimately depends on its own leadership and effective planning. Ghana is still a resource-dependent country, with more than a quarter of its export earnings coming from oil and gas alone. Over the past decade, the oil sector has contributed around $6.5 billion of direct revenue to Ghana’s budget. Without a plan to respond to the global energy transition, a significant decline in oil revenues could plunge Ghana into a deep crisis.

In the last decade, the government has allocated $2 billion to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC). These investments have financed equity stakes in exploration, development and general operations in oil-producing fields. NRGI’s Risky Bet report shows that, globally, oil and gas projects currently in the pipeline and worth an estimated $400 billion, run the risk of not breaking even.

At a minimum, the government should avoid making bad decisions — those that threaten the country’s economic and fiscal outlook. But Ghana’s record does not inspire confidence. In the last decade, the government has allocated $2 billion to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC). These investments have financed equity stakes in exploration, development and general operations in oil-producing fields. NRGI’s Risky Bet report shows that, globally, oil and gas projects currently in the pipeline and worth an estimated $400 billion, run the risk of not breaking even. Against the backdrop of the global energy transition, GNPC’s ambitions of becoming an operator are risky.

In July 2021, Ghana’s Ministry of Energy and GNPC declared their intention to sink an additional $1.65 billion of public money into shares of Aker Energy’s oil project — yet another “risky bet” given the increasing pace of the global energy transition, which would result in poor returns on such a large-scale investment. Furthermore, such a decision would divert precious capital that the government could invest in more socially beneficial programmes, such as education or cheaper and more diverse energy sources, that could power development in Ghana. Thankfully, after severe criticism from civil society organisations, the public and industry oversight bodies in Ghana, the government paused its investment plans in the Aker shares.

No doubt, Ghana’s economic and fiscal outlook is uncertain. The 2018/19 oil licensing round remains unconcluded and oil production is projected to decline. International companies are redirecting their investments, and projects have been delayed. State oil revenues peaked in 2018, at 10 per cent of total government revenue, and dropped to seven per cent in 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the related global energy crisis now present huge uncertainties for the oil sector, including the prospect of a global recession.

The good news is that Ghana now has a golden opportunity to develop a comprehensive and context-specific plan for navigating the global energy transition. In response to COP26 and Ghanaian CSOs’ demands for a national energy transition policy, the government launched the National Energy Transition Committee (NETC) in December 2021. The committee is tasked with developing a national policy document on steps the country can take to successfully navigate the global energy transition. The NETC is also tasked with conducting a nationwide consultation on Ghana’s energy transition. At the first regional forum organised by the Ministry of Energy on behalf of the NETC, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia said the NETC’s nationwide consultations are key to success: “We need to develop plans and implement options that people can relate to.” He also stressed the importance of equal opportunities for all citizens to enjoy the benefits of the energy transition and ensure social justice in the process.

The transition plans must address Ghana’s growing energy needs. Decisions about energy sources and related services should be based on analysing different solutions over the long term, mindful of the likelihood that many factors (such as the competitiveness of renewables and gas) may change quickly over the coming decade. Accordingly, the NETC should review the role of fossil gas over the course of the transition…

Essential elements for Ghana’s approach

The establishment of the NETC is an important and valuable first step. The following recommendations, if adopted, would put the committee on track to deliver a successful energy transition plan:

Include all voices. Ghana’s plan should be inclusive and leave no citizen behind. The plan should address how government will support local economies with relevant training, technology and finances to take advantage of the new opportunities in the transition;
Enlist experts. The NETC should engage sector experts working on the energy transition to help ensure that the plan is informed by data and technical analysis;
Promote open dialogue. Open and honest engagement between all relevant stakeholders will help build consensus and ownership around a transition pathway that is widely considered by citizens as viable and necessary. A shared understanding of the risks and opportunities of the energy transition is critical to agree on a shared strategy;
Plan in harmony and coordination with existing policies. The energy transition plan should harmonise existing policy objectives and remedy the systemic inefficiencies in existing policy implementation;
Improve governance of climate finance. The Ministry of Finance should spell out the role of international climate finance in energy transition planning and interrelate the energy transition plan with Ghana’s (conditional) nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Across the board, this requires building the state’s capacity to receive and deploy international climate finance;
Take a critical and dynamic approach to energy options. The transition plans must address Ghana’s growing energy needs. Decisions about energy sources and related services should be based on analysing different solutions over the long term, mindful of the likelihood that many factors (such as the competitiveness of renewables and gas) may change quickly over the coming decade. Accordingly, the NETC should review the role of fossil gas over the course of the transition — not assume from the outset that gas will be a constant;
Assess implications for existing institutions. Ghana’s energy transition plan should consider the role of existing institutions such as GNPC in light of the long-term, macro pathway, rather than starting with assumptions about their purpose and role. Making the right investment decisions will require transparency and robust risk assessment.

Nafi Chinery is the West Africa (Anglophone) regional manager at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).

Strictly Personal

Here is Raila’s Africa Union road to nowhere, By Tee Ngugi

Published

5 days ago

September 2, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

On August 27, the Kenya government officially endorsed Raila Odinga as its candidate for chairman of the African Union Commission in a ceremony held at State House.

In attendance were William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan, South Sudan’s Salva Kiir, former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Tanzania, Jakaya Kikwete , among other dignitaries. The platitudes spoken at the ceremony, and the grandiose reception of the VIP dignitaries resembled a mini African Union heads of state gathering.

Watching the gathering and listening to the speeches, I was struck by two sad truths.

One truth was of a tone deaf generation totally incapable of understanding the problems of Africa. The other was that these same people continue to be in charge of Africa’s affairs or determine or influence its future. Let me expound on these two issues by reference to the speech made by Raila Odinga.

Odinga touched on several problems plaguing Africa including peace, the poverty that forces people to flee to Europe, and intra-Africa trade.

Yet not once did he hint at, let alone mention, the root cause of all these problems. Lack of peace in Africa is caused by failed governance.

The governance style fashioned by the independence leaders is characterised by what Ali Mazrui called “deification” of political authority.

By this process, the president becomes a god. He uses government positions and public resources to buy support or reward sycophants. Significant resources are used for self-aggrandisement and to fulfill megalomaniacal ambitions.

It is a wasteful and corrupt system. The state employs an elaborate police apparatus to intimidate citizens. A case in point: A few weeks ago, and not far from State House , the Kenya regime stationed snipers on rooftops to execute unarmed protesters.

The African governing elite is also adept at using tribalism as a political tool. The war in South Sudan is a competition for power by individuals who mobilise the support of their communities.

The deadly conflagration in Sudan is traceable to Bashir’s dictatorship which weakened systems and impoverished the country. Now those close to Bashir are fighting to be the next “deity” and continue to plunder the country.

Odinga evoked the ghosts of Nkrumah, Jomo Kenyatta, Sekou Toure and Haile Selassie — dictators who designed the oppressive parasitic state. Evocation of these dictators was ominous, because it signaled continuation of the AU defence of the broken system they designed and which successive regimes have perpetuated.

Should he succeed, Raila will become the next spokesman and defender of this fundamentally flawed governance which the youth of Africa want to overthrow.

His legacy will be cast in the same lot with that of dictators who have ruined and continue to ruin Africa.

Strictly Personal

Mpox crisis: We need an equity-driven pandemic treaty, By Magda Robalo

Published

6 days ago

September 1, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

The current multicountry Mpox outbreak started in January 2022. It has now been declared a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (Phecs) by the Africa CDC and, for the second time, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (Pheic) by WHO, under the International Health Regulations (2005) highlighting critical deficiencies in the global public health response.

Endemic to West and Central Africa, the first human case of Mpox was detected in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Nigeria experienced a large outbreak in 2017 and 2018. Only sporadic cases occurred outside endemic areas before 2022.

According to the World Health Organisation, most people suffering Mpox recover within two to four weeks. The disease is transmitted through close, personal, skin-to-skin contact with someone who has Mpox, contaminated materials, or with infected animals. Transmission could also occur during pregnancy or childbirth and among people with multiple sexual partners, who represent a high-risk population.

Despite early warnings, failures in implementing robust surveillance, contact tracing, and containment strategies have allowed the virus to spread across at least 120 countries. In the DRC, where the outbreak has been particularly severe, two distinct outbreaks are evolving, caused by clade Ia and the newly emerged clade Ib.

Increasingly, and rightly so, voices are coalescing to demand an urgent, coordinated international action and global solidarity toward an equity-driven, focused response to curb the virus’s spread and mitigate its impact.

Loud calls for equitable vaccine distribution are being heard, a reminiscence of the Covid-19 dramatic experience. But vaccines are only one complementary tool in the box of interventions against the outbreak. Two fundamental questions we should be asking are: whether we have done enough to prevent the outbreak from becoming Pheic and Phecs, and if we are doing all we can to contain it, beyond placing our hopes on the still scarce doses of vaccine.

The Mpox outbreak underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive, equity-driven pandemic treaty, to coordinate global efforts to improve pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. The potential impact of this treaty is substantial, promising to address critical areas such as public health infrastructure, equitable access to treatment, vaccines and other supplies, and enhanced international cooperation during health emergencies.

The spread of Mpox across multiple continents in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic confirms the persistence of significant vulnerabilities in national and global health systems, particularly in surveillance and rapid response—areas a well-crafted treaty could strengthen.

A united voice from Africa is critical to the negotiations. Without systemic changes, the world risks repeating the mistakes of Covid-19 and the ongoing Mpox outbreak in future outbreaks. Global health security depends on timely action, transparent communication, and a commitment to protecting all populations, regardless of geographic or socioeconomic status. It depends on strong health systems, based on a primary health care strategy and underpinned by the principles of universal health coverage.

There is no doubt that the world is facing an emerging threat. The scientific community is confronted with knowledge gaps in relation to Mpox. Several unknowns persist on the real pace of the evolving outbreak, its modes of and transmission dynamics, evolutionary routes and the human-to-human transmission chains. It is uncertain if we are moving toward a sustained human-to-human transmission and its potential scale and impact.

However, despite the fragility of health systems in most of its countries, Africa has decades of vast, diverse, cumulated experience in dealing with major epidemics, such as HIV/Aids, Ebola and most recently Covid-19, in addition to the decades of surveillance for polio eradication and containment of outbreaks.

In recent decades, African countries have improved their human, technical and infrastructural capacities and capabilities to detect, diagnose, and respond to outbreaks and large epidemics. Expertise and skills have been built in disease surveillance, infection prevention and control, diagnosis, epidemiological data management, including pathogen genomic sequencing.

Communities have developed systems to fight stigma and discrimination, built resilience and capacity to respond to and address their unique challenges, including poor access to information, education, communication tools, as well as to treatment and prevention interventions.

Admittedly, the response to this outbreak continues to expose significant flaws, particularly inconsistent and inadequate surveillance and monitoring systems to track the spread of the virus, contact tracing, and infection prevention measures (isolation, handwashing, use of masks and condoms, etc).

Many countries still lack the necessary infrastructure or have relaxed these measures, leading to delayed detection and widespread transmission. Moreover, a reluctance to deploy aggressive contact tracing and isolation protocols, partly due to concerns about stigmatisation, resulted in missed opportunities for early containment.

While negotiating for potential vaccine doses to protect high-risk populations, countries should invest in and deploy what they have learned and now know how to do best, based on the lessons from polio, HIV/Aids, Ebola and Covid-19. It is imperative that we contain the Mpox outbreak before it is too late. It is time to put our best foot forward. We have no reasons for helplessness and hopelessness.