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Egypt in search of wheat. How the Russia-Ukraine war may trigger food insecurity

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Egypt, the world’s top importer of wheat, is looking for new sources after the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted crucial supply from the two major exporting countries.


It is a little over a week since Russian soldiers have invaded Ukraine following the order of their President, Vladimir Putin.
The war is already having a negative effect on countries – especially those that depend on the two countries for food, oil and gold.


Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine is among the top five. Global grain markets are facing turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, with the two countries accounting for about 30 percent of the world’s wheat supply.


Wheat is fundamental to the Egyptian diet, with about 70 per cent of the population relying on subsidised bread to feed their families.


The Arab world’s most populous country, with more than 100 million people, Egypt is expected to need about 13 million tonnes of wheat this year, said Lamy Hamed, associate professor in the soil and water department at Cairo University’s Faculty of Agriculture.


This was said as the country’s main buying agency, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), issued an international tender for Monday to buy 55,000 to 60,000 tonnes of wheat.


Despite the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian military escalation, the Egyptian ship “Wadi Al-Arab” carrying 60 tons of Ukrainian wheat has left the Yuzhne port of Ukraine and en route to Egypt, said the GASC on Saturday.


The shipment is part of a total of  300,000 tons of wheat scheduled to arrive from February 15 to March 3, 2022, the GASC noted. In a meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Sunday, Minister of Supply Aly Moselhy said that the state’s strategic wheat stock lasts for 4 months and local production season will start in April, with a target of 4 million tons. On Feb. 26, 2022, the GASC announced – on behalf of the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade – a new international tender to import wheat, adding that the shipments are scheduled on April 13-26.

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IMF mission concludes 4th loan program assessment in Egypt

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Following the completion of a recent visit to Egypt, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that its mission had achieved significant strides in policy talks aimed at concluding the fourth review of the IMF loan program.

The review is the fourth in Egypt’s most recent 46-month IMF loan program, which was authorised in 2022 and increased to $8 billion this year following an economic crisis characterised by high inflation and chronic foreign exchange shortages. It may unleash more than $1.2 billion in financing.

Along with reaffirming its commitment to maintain a flexible exchange rate system, the IMF stated that Egypt “has implemented key reforms to preserve macroeconomic stability,” including the unification of the currency rate that facilitated imports.

Earlier on Wednesday, Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Cairo has asked the IMF to modify the targets for the programme not only for this year, but for its full duration, he added without giving more details.

“Discussions will continue over the coming days to finalize agreement on the remaining policies and reforms that could support the completion of the fourth review,” the IMF added in its statement.

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Kenya seeks $750m from World Bank, obtains $200m from AfDB— Official

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The head of debt management for the finance ministry told Reuters that Kenya had obtained a $200 million loan from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and was negotiating a fresh $750 million loan with the World Bank.

After being forced to abandon proposed tax rises costing more than 346 billion shillings ($2.68 billion) in June due to fatal demonstrations, the East African nation’s administration, which has been grappling with significant debt, has been frantically seeking fresh funding.

The Finance Ministry’s public debt management office director general, Raphael Owino, told Reuters that the IMF’s October clearance of the seventh and eighth reviews, which opened the door for a $606 million loan tranche, had aided the ministry’s talks for more loans.

“The World Bank is coming on board, riding on the back of IMF receipts,” Owino said. “The AfDB is already on board.”

The discussions for more assistance, which came under the World Bank’s “Development Policy Operations” (DPO) with the government, were confirmed by a representative at the organization’s Kenya office.

“The amount of the current (loan) is yet to be determined. The amount will also depend on the implementation of the policy reforms agreed upon,” the spokesperson told Reuters, adding that past DPO loans averaged about $750 million.

In May, the World Bank approved the latest round of DPO loans, totalling $1.2 billion.

According to a statement made last month by Finance Minister John Mbadi, Kenya has set a foreign borrowing goal of 168 billion shillings for the fiscal year ending in June 2025.

 

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