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IMF predicts 4% Middle East, North Africa growth next year

Published

6 hours ago

November 1, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Middle East and North Africa growth would rebound to 4% next year if oil output curbs were phased out, and headwinds, including wars, subsided.

As geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns remain, the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook, launched in Dubai, predicts “sluggish” growth of 2.1% in 2024.

The IMF noted that risks to the outlook for the overall area, including the Caucasus and Central Asia, “remain tilted to the downside,” and called for an acceleration of structural reforms, notably in governance and labour markets, to raise chances for medium-term growth.

Jihad Azour, the IMF’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, said in an interview that the MENA growth estimate for 2024 has been revised downwards by 0.6% from April’s report, mainly due to the extension of the Israel-Hamas conflict and further extensions of OPEC+ voluntary oil production cuts.

He said the “good news” was that inflation was gradually being brought under control across the region. He predicted that the region would average the 3% goal rate in 2024, except for Egypt, Iran, and Sudan.

The outlook, however, differs significantly throughout the region. According to Azour, oil-exporting nations should be better equipped to handle such threats thanks to “strong” growth in the non-oil sector.

Non-oil growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has mostly outpaced overall growth despite lower oil prices and production this year, thanks to government-led investment programs that support domestic demand. The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman.

Oil importers from the Middle East and North Africa are still more susceptible to protracted hostilities and significant funding requirements.

“Even as these issues gradually abate, uncertainty remains high and structural gaps will likely hold back productivity growth in many economies over the forecast horizon,” the IMF report said.

Since January 2024, the IMF has authorised $13.4 billion in fresh investment for Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations, including initiatives in Jordan, Pakistan, and Egypt.

Related Topics:Featured IMF Middle East North Africa

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Angola’s draft budget estimates 1.65%/GDP deficit in 2025

Published

6 hours ago

November 1, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

Draft budget documents show that Angola’s government expects a 1.65% GDP budget deficit in 2025, up from 1.46% this year.

According to finance ministry records on its website, Africa’s second-largest crude oil exporter’s 2025 budget is predicated on $70 per barrel of oil. Brent crude futures were around $74 per barrel on Friday.

In an interview with Reuters last week, Vera Daves de Sousa, the finance minister of Angola, stated that the southern African nation was under a lot of strain due to the possibility of declining oil prices.

Additionally, according to the draft budget, economic growth would pick up speed in the non-oil sectors, increasing from 3.3% this year to 4.1% next year.

According to the finance ministry, yearly inflation will drop from nearly 29% to 16.6% by the end of next year.

Last week, Daves de Sousa told Reuters that Angola was considering asking the International Monetary Fund for a funding program.

Its most current IMF program, worth $3.7 billion, was authorised in 2018 after the country’s earnings were severely damaged by the collapse of global petroleum prices.

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Cocoa producers in Ghana worry about prices, child labour

Published

6 hours ago

November 1, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

A “living income” for farmers is one of the major environmental and social concerns that Ghanaian cocoa growers listed in a complaint they submitted to state regulator, Cocobod, on Thursday.

Thirty farmers signed the complaint, which also expressed worries about the world’s second-largest chocolate producer’s ongoing use of pesticides, child labour, and deforestation.

As a condition of a $600 million syndicated loan arranged by the African Development Bank (AfDB) in 2019, it will test a grievance mechanism developed by Cocobod.

According to its mandate, Cocobod has extensive authority over the regulation of pesticide distribution, cocoa marketing, and farmer prices.

“The AfDB sought to address precisely the type of environmental and social issues identified in this petition when it mandated the creation of the…grievance mechanism,” the complaint, seen by Reuters, said.

Studies showing that just a small percentage of Ghanaian farmers make a decent wage from their cocoa were highlighted in the producers’ complaint.

“Cocobod must require companies to pay farmers a higher price…a living income,” it said, adding higher prices were also “an essential first step towards eliminating child labour”.

According to the farmers, Cocobod must also enforce firms’ deforestation pledges, guarantee that their supply chains are open to the public, prohibit the sale of hazardous chemicals, and promote agricultural sustainability.