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Nigeria’s inflation peaked at record 28-year high in June at 34.19%

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Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to a new 28-year high of 34.19% in annual terms in June, official data showed on Monday, but some analysts said it may have peaked as devaluation effects should start to fade from this month.

June’s data marked the 19th straight month that inflation had risen in Africa’s most populous nation, up from 33.95% in May.

It came roughly a week before the central bank is due to announce another interest rate decision, which will be closely watched after three hikes already this year.

President Bola Tinubu’s policies, which include cutting back on energy and gasoline subsidies and depreciating the naira twice a year, have increased price pressure.

The largest cost-of-living crisis in decades is plaguing millions of people as a result of the reforms, which have harmed the poor.

After calling off an indefinite strike last month, labour organizations met with Tinubu this week to advocate for a new minimum wage. According to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, the largest contributors to inflation in June were still food and non-alcoholic beverages. Inflation on food increased to 40.87% from 40.66% in the prior month.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has declared that the bank will take all necessary steps to control inflation.

The Capital Economics analyst for Africa, David Omojomolo, predicted that inflation would begin to decline soon—likely in July—and fall below 30% by the end of the year.

“This, we think, will set the stage for the CBN to start thinking about interest rate cuts soon,” he wrote in a research note.

At its most recent monetary policy meeting in May, the central bank increased the prime lending rate to 26.25%, a 150 basis point increase. It must make a rate decision again by July 23.

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Ezz al-Arab appointed as Egypt’s CIB chairman

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Commercial International Bank (CIB), Egypt’s largest private bank, announced on Monday that long-time chairman and previous CEO Hisham Ezz al-Arab will become CEO.

Neveen Sabbour, a board member, will take over as chairman, according to a statement. Hussein Abaza, the outgoing CEO, will be replaced by Ezz al-Arab, who will hold the role for three years.

In Egypt, the market share held by traditional banks is expected to reach US$35.84 billion. As more clients choose online and mobile banking options, Egypt’s banking industry is seeing an increase in digital banking services.

The new appointments are part of “to lead the bank’s multifaceted business transformation and continue its programme to support recognised potential future leaders,” the announcement stated.

Ezz al-Arab, chairman and managing director since 2002, resigned in October 2020 due to “compliance concerns” from the national bank.

In August 2022, a year before his tenure expired, central bank governor Tarek Amer resigned due to a currency crisis. Ezz al-Arab was requested to rejoin as chairman in December.

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Nigerian inflation falls again, drops to 32.15% in August

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Nigeria’s August inflation rate declined for a second month to 32.15% from 33.40% in July, the statistics office reported on Monday. This comes after the month of July saw the first decrease in consumer inflation in Africa’s largest country in almost a year.

Analysts predict August’s slowdown may be short-lived after two gas price increases this month enraged citizens facing the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

The removal of a decades-old gasoline subsidy, devaluation of the naira currency, and increase in energy costs by President Bola Tinubu have raised prices.

Reforms attempt to boost economic growth and public finances.

The central bank’s next interest rate decision next week may be influenced by inflation figures. The apex bank has hiked rates four times this year to curb inflation, and economists say July’s hike may be the last.

Further petrol price increases and northern flooding that swept away crops could raise food prices.

“On the whole, disinflation should continue with the headline rate falling below 30% by year-end, but upside risks remain,” Capital Economics Africa analyst David Omojomolo wrote.

He claimed rising petrol prices might “slow the pace of the disinflation process” and that the central bank would not drop rates until early next year.

Food inflation dropped from 39.53% to 37.52% in August. It remained the greatest inflation driver in August.

 

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