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Forecast is not destiny; Africa is on the path to prosperity, By Mohamed Ghazouani

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Across the Global South, young people are yearning for opportunity and a better life. But while 1.2 billion people in developing countries are projected to reach working age over the next decade, only an estimated 420 million jobs will be available to them, leaving nearly 800 million people without a clear path to employment. Even though some of this cohort will continue their education, that would only delay, and possibly prolong, the crisis.

The challenge of insufficient job opportunities will be felt acutely in Africa, where nearly one-third of this generation lives. But forecasts are not destiny. That is why the continent’s future was a central topic at this week’s G7 summit in Apulia, Italy.

The need to focus on Africa’s future is obvious because a world free of poverty on a livable planet will remain an elusive target if the continent cannot harness its abundant potential and create sufficient employment and economic growth. And it is equally clear that a successful strategy for Africa would benefit from the International Development Association, which wields a powerful development tool: affordable financing.

The task is immense because Africa’s challenges are great. Nearly 500 million Africans live in poverty, while conflict, climate change, unsustainable debt burdens, and other crises cast a shadow over the continent’s economic outlook.

But the good news is that there is a path to progress, as evidenced by other countries that have prospered by using IDA’s grants and low-interest loans, embracing good governance, investing in their people, and fostering a business-friendly investment climate. Africa could take a similar path, but it will need the help of organisations like the G7 and others.

We believe a focused strategy that generates jobs while providing the foundational ingredients for development is essential to that journey. In our view, this plan should be anchored in five pillars.

First, we must improve access to electricity, which is a fundamental human right and essential to development. The World Bank Group is working with the African Development Bank to provide electricity to half of the 600 million Africans lacking access to power by 2030, an effort that will require the support of development partners, governments, and private-sector investors to succeed. Fortunately, we are well on our way to building that coalition.

Second, building efficient, high-quality infrastructure is crucial for trade. Moving goods between African countries can be a lengthy and expensive process, because road and rail networks are insufficient, maritime transport is modest, and border wait times are prohibitively long. In a region where 470 million people don’t have reliable year-round transport, investing in physical and digital infrastructure – including cross-border payment systems – will create job opportunities by increasing trade, integration, and financial inclusion.

Third, investment in agribusiness must increase. Only 6% of Africa’s farmland is irrigated, compared to 37% in Asia, and the continent has one of the lowest rates of fertilizer use in the world, leading to yields that are one-third of the global average. With the right fertilizer for the right soil and improved irrigation, Africa’s farmers could boost production, labour demand, and incomes, which could then be used for food, school supplies, and medicine.

For example, an IDA-financed initiative in Mauritania and its neighbouring Sahel countries is helping 390,000 farmers— almost half of them women — irrigate their farmland using affordable technologies.

Fourth, healthcare systems must be strengthened. The World Bank Group aims to help low- and middle-income countries provide healthcare services to 1.5 billion people by 2030 – which would demand skilled jobs. But we must think even bigger because strengthening health infrastructure and pandemic preparedness is essential to development.

Lastly, promoting tourism would create jobs for women, who make up the majority of the sector’s workforce, and accelerate economic growth. But this will depend on improved infrastructure and access to electricity and health care. Moreover, like the other four areas, it also requires a commitment to education and skills development to succeed, built with a digital foundation.

IDA is an essential partner and knowledge source in advancing this agenda. It is the largest provider of financing and the main source of liquidity for many African countries. Last year alone, 75 percent of IDA’s commitments – more than $25 billion — were to Africa, a 24 percent increase over five years. Its financial model turns every donor dollar into nearly four dollars in new resources. And, if successful, proposed measures to simplify IDA would improve access and help countries focus more on developing real solutions for their people.

Simply put, IDA is the best deal in development, as 19 African heads of state recently recognised. It’s also a reminder of what we can accomplish when we join together as partners in progress. With IDA’s support, we can target jobs — and growth-producing sectors, engage the private sector, and help Africa secure the prosperous future it deserves.

Mohamed Ould Ghazouani is the President of Mauritania and Chairperson of the African Union; Ajay Banga is President of the World Bank Group.

Strictly Personal

Symptoms of a rotten state are all around us, By Tee Ngugi

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In 2015, an MP was shot in Nairobi in the wee hours of the night. As investigators scrambled to find the killers, members of the Parliamentary Committee on Security, which had approved a multimillion-shilling project to install security cameras in Nairobi, were asked whether the cameras worked.

It was hoped that a camera nearby would have captured the shooting. Their answer summarises what ails Kenya. They said they didn’t know. That admission was staggering.

But what went beyond staggering and entered the realm of absurdity, was that the committee members, including the chairman, continued to serve in the committee.

Let’s pause here for a moment. You commit millions of shillings to a project, and you don’t even bother to check whether it functions as per the terms of reference.

Surely, if the security cameras had been installed in the members’ private homes, they would have checked and rechecked their functionality every day.

First, because they would want the best possible security for themselves and their families. Second, because the money spent on the installation would be theirs. But they couldn’t care less whether the cameras installed in Nairobi worked or not.

What did they care about public safety and public money?

This attitude of officials neglecting their duties and continuing to hold on to their positions is at the heart of what ails Kenya. We are confronted by the deadly symptoms of this illness daily.

Illegal dams will burst their walls and kill tens of people, yet the officials who approved their construction and the minister under whose docket regulation of dams falls, keep their jobs.

Shoddily constructed buildings will collapse and kill tens of people, yet inspectorate and regulatory officials in the relevant ministry will continue drawing exorbitant salaries.

Of course, the minister and his officials will leave a lavish lunch or dinner at a luxurious hotel, rush to the accident site and offer tired platitudes, and prayers for the victims, before waddling to their petrol guzzlers to be ferried back to their hotels to finish their feast.

That will be the end of that matter until the next building claims other lives.

Every year, thousands of people die in car accidents because of poor roads, defective vehicles and police failure to enforce traffic rules.

In March this year, we lost 11 university students in a road accident. Neither the transport officials nor the minister in charge resigned.

The other week, 21 pupils of Hillside Endarasha Academy died in a dormitory inferno. Officials from the ministry’s inspectorate division have not resigned. The minister continues to enjoy largesse at the expense of the taxpayer.

These are just a few examples of neglect and impunity. The Gen- Z revolution called for the complete overhaul of the Kenyan state.

The overhaul cannot be done by the corrupt Kanu oligarchy that has ruled Kenya since 1963. We need new leadership to avert total state failure.

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator

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Strictly Personal

World Bank is leaving? Big deal! We’re joining the ‘Big City Club’ By Joseph Nyagah

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Imagine a couple whose marriage has produced many children celebrating their golden jubilee (50th anniversary) with divorce!

The World Bank and Uganda did better (or worse) – celebrating their Diamond Jubilee by parting ways. Yet diamond symbolises strength, durability and enduring value.

Uganda officially joined the World Bank group in 1963 after a decade-long courtship in which the bank had funded game changing Owen Falls power dam that Queen Elizabeth II switched on in 1954.

After independence in 1962, Uganda couldn’t wait to formalise its relationship with the World Bank just months later. Then without warning, the bank called it quits for their 60th anniversary.

Was Uganda taken by surprise? Yes. For while the bank all along knew its weakness in financial management – the blow came not as a warning but a notice on August 8, 2023, cutting funding citing Kampala’s new anti-homosexuality law.

Of course, a relationship with a bank that excludes finance doesn’t exist, unless the bank will be running Uganda’s school football tournaments.

Uganda as a member must have known the bank’s values of inclusion and non-discrimination, but had been under the illusion that such a drastic measure could only ever be taken over the core business of the relationship.

Ugandans wouldn’t have been shocked if World Bank had cited corruption; even President Yoweri Museveni has publicly said evidence of collusion in Treasury with Parliament to steal public funds exists.

So deep had the Uganda-World Bank relation grown that a year after separation, a major project that had been in the works has been launched.

Like a couple who after signing their divorce find that there was a bun in the oven, both Kampala and Washington are somewhat happy to welcome the baby – the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) project, which is set to produce one of the world’s largest cities.

To understand the accuracy of this assertion, one needs to understand what has been happening over the past 39 years since Museveni stormed Kampala in 1986 after years of fighting in the bush.

When the city still stood on the seven hills colonialist Captain Frederick Lugard founded it and hoisted the Union Jack on in 1890. Today Kampala stands on 77 hills and still counting.

People who knew Kampala in the 1980s can understand the unguided construction boom unleashed by Museveni’s arrival.

By 1986, for example, many wealthy families that had fled the massacre around their farms had been living in small car garages belonging to civil servants who had no cars.

With the new Museveni era marked by security and economic revival, they couldn’t wait to build new nice homes around Kampala. And they built and built.

Everyone got obsessed with building on the space nearest to them that has not been bought by someone else until the whole central region is fast becoming a construction site because of the location of GKMA which accounts for two-thirds of the country’s GDP and tax collection.

In 2013, government and consequently World Bank woke up to the need to catch up with the ordinary people.

In absence of official physical plans (or disinterest in observing them where they exist) people have been building anywhere and everywhere.

Kampala is now growing far beyond its gazetted 200 sq kms or so to about 6,640 to include Wakiso, Mpigi, and Mukono districts.

With the inevitable expansion targeting the remaining Kayunga and Buikwe districts to firmly engulf Jinja city, GKMA Kampala will soon be 9,534 sq kms, call it 10,000 if you include the exotic Lake Victoria islands that are becoming weekend playgrounds for the city middle class.

Ten thousand sq kms is not far from the biggest real city we know called New York at 12,093 sq kms (any bigger cities are so-called because of administrative boundaries but not the criteria of a city being a densely populated urban hub of economic and cultural activities, interconnected with transport infrastructure and playing important roles in international affairs).

To its credit, government knew the huge future metropolitan transport needs and plotted futuristic industry starting with creating a local automotive industry starting with manufacturing of zero-emission buses and investing in electricity generation capacity.

When the World Bank is done supporting 10,000 sq kms city, I see our government replicating and connecting up with its 10 other “cities by legislation” located around the country that have been (in)operational since being instituted five years ago.

“And when another five cities become (in)operational anytime now, Uganda will be on the road to join Vatican and Monaco as a city state, and the largest in the world at 242,000 square kilometres. Not a bad parting gift from the World Bank, as we mumble “…was nice knowing you…: to Bretton Brothers.

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. Email: buwembo@gmail.com

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