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Ghana, official creditors seal debt restructuring deal

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One and a half years after its foreign debt default, Ghana’s government has announced that the country has reached an agreement to restructure $5.4 billion in debt with its bilateral creditors, which include China and France.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the West African country and its creditors sets the stage for the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) executive board to accept the $360 million payout under Ghana’s $3 billion, three-year bailout package, which is anticipated to occur next month.

Once completed, the contract would serve as the foundation for an agreement in January to restructure loans with its formal creditors under the Paris Club of creditors. During a news conference, Mohammed Amin Adam, the finance minister, stated that Ghana is nearing the end of its foreign debt restructuring program.

On Thursday, the official creditor committee (OCC) formally delivered the draft Memorandum of Understanding to the government. He stated that the administration would now promptly evaluate the document and sign the agreement with the OCC as soon as feasible.

He said that following talks with holders of Eurobonds, the two parties had “very narrow” differences. By year’s end, he added, Ghana was expecting $2.32 billion in loans.

Ghana, an oil, cocoa, and gold exporter, fought to recover from the biggest economic catastrophe in a generation during the epidemic, becoming the second country in Africa after Zambia to default on the majority of its $30 billion external debt.

Since then, Ghana’s economy has begun to strengthen; inflation decreased from 54.1% in December 2022 to 25% in April 2024, and the country’s 2.9% growth in 2023 surpassed the 2.3% predicted by the IMF.

The second-largest cocoa producer in the world is restructuring its debt by the G20 Common Framework, a mechanism established during the epidemic to expedite debt overhauls, along with Ethiopia and Zambia.

But because of the slow pace of development, the nation’s ability to recover economically and obtain much-needed foreign loans, aid, and investment has been hampered.

Ghana’s debt was deemed unsustainable by the IMF in its Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), and by 2028, the nation hopes to return to a “moderate” risk of financial crisis.

Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease as a result, from 88.1% at the end of 2022 to 55% by 2028. Ghana bondholders, who are next in line for a deal, will be interested in terms with official creditors since they would be looking for an equitable solution under the comparability of treatment principle, a crucial component of the Common Framework for debt restructuring.

In April, Ghana managed to reach a consensus with a number of its largest bondholders, including African regional banks Western asset managers and hedge funds. However, the IMF stated that changes were necessary because the temporary agreement did not meet the DSA criteria.

Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease as a result, from 88.1% at the end of 2022 to 55% by 2028. Ghana bondholders, who are next in line for a deal, will be interested in terms with official creditors since they would be looking for an equitable solution under the comparability of treatment principle, a crucial component of the Common Framework for debt restructuring.

In April, Ghana managed to reach a consensus with a number of its largest bondholders, including African regional banks Western asset managers and hedge funds. However, the IMF stated that changes were necessary because the temporary agreement did not meet the DSA criteria.

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Zambia eyes recovery following worst drought

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As it emerges from its worst drought in living memory, Zambia hopes to achieve a fast recovery in economic growth and a halving of its budget deficit in the following year, the country’s finance minister announced on Friday.

In contrast to a projected 2.3% growth in 2024, the copper producer aims for 6.6% growth in 2025, according to Finance Minister, Situmbeko Musokotwane, in a budget speech.

The El Nino-caused drought destroyed Southern Africa’s crops, resulting in food shortages and harming the region’s economic prospects this year.

Zambia’s finance minister said on Friday that the nation, which is coming out of the worst drought in living memory, intends to quickly recover economic growth and cut its budget deficit in half the next year.

Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane stated in a budget address that the copper producer is targeting 6.6% growth in 2025 as opposed to a projected 2.3% increase in 2024.

A UNICEF study in March 2024 states that the majority of the country’s central and southern regions have been impacted by the dry spell since mid-January. These regions have gotten less rainfall than usual, which has resulted in the destruction of one million hectares of maize—nearly half of all the corn grown in the nation.

Since hydropower generates more than 80% of Zambia’s electricity, the analysis also predicted that the drought would cause a power shortage of 430 megawatts and have an impact on surface and groundwater levels. These projections would have serious ramifications for industries other than agriculture.

The minister further stated that following the conclusion of a Eurobond restructuring exercise, Zambia was still negotiating restructuring arrangements with certain commercial creditors.

He reported that the China Development Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have just struck provisional restructuring agreements with Zambia.

It has been demonstrated that the agreements are in line with Zambia’s IMF program and the “Comparability of Treatment principle,” which aims to prevent the wealthier creditor nations that make up the Paris Club from making disproportionate concessions in comparison to other creditors.

The lengthy debt restructuring process in Zambia has hurt local financial markets and discouraged investment.

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Ghana central bank cuts key rate as inflation cools

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The governor of Ghana’s central bank has stated that the country’s economy is still recovering strongly and that inflation is continuing to decline, causing the bank to drop its main interest rate by 200 basis points to 27%. This was the first rate cut since January.

 

At a press conference Friday, Bank of Ghana Governor Ernest Addison stated that economic indicators point to a proceeding disinflation, with price increases continuing to moderate in the direction of the year’s short-term range target of 13% to 17%.

 

“Such a strong signalling of the monetary policy rate by reducing it by 200 basis points tells you that the central bank is quite satisfied with the progress of recovery of this economy,” Addison said, adding that all indicators including growth, inflation and fiscal policy are improving.

According to Reuters polled economists in July, Ghana’s interest rate is predicted to drop by 200 basis points by year’s end.

 

 

“This easing of policy is understandable, given that the recent falls in inflation had caused real interest rates to rise, something that this cut will partially reverse,” said Leslie Dwinght-Mensah, economist and research fellow at Accra-based Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

 

“The strong rate of economic activity, which official data recently revealed, also gave the central bank the comfort to take this step.”

 

 

Economists surveyed by Reuters in July expected that by year’s end, Ghana’s interest rate will have decreased by 200 basis points.

 

“This easing of policy is understandable, given that the recent falls in inflation had caused real interest rates to rise, something that this cut will partially reverse,” said Leslie Dwinght-Mensah, economist and research fellow at Accra-based Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

“The strong rate of economic activity, which official data recently revealed, also gave the central bank the comfort to take this step.”

 

Economists surveyed by Reuters in July expected that by year’s end, Ghana’s interest rate will have decreased by 200 basis points.

 

 

“This easing of policy is understandable, given that the recent falls in inflation had caused real interest rates to rise, something that this cut will partially reverse,” said Leslie Dwinght-Mensah, economist and research fellow at Accra-based Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

 

“The strong rate of economic activity, which official data recently revealed, also gave the central bank the comfort to take this step.”

 

Following the completion of preliminary debt restructuring negotiations with two bondholder groups, Ghana extended an invitation to holders of its approximately $13 billion worth of international bonds to exchange their holdings for new instruments.

 

Bondholders can accept the offer until September 30.

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