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US chief warns elections might not be credible in South Sudan. Here’s why 

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A senior US State Department official has cautioned that unless immediate action is taken, the planned December elections in South Sudan are not likely to be a credible process due to the government’s delayed preparations.

In an interview, the official responded in the affirmative when asked if, absent immediate action, the electoral process was headed towards being a fraud.

Later this year, South Sudan will hold national elections to select a new transitional administration led by First Vice President Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir, whose forces fought each other throughout the country’s 2013–2018 civil war.

Kiir, who has been the country’s president since he led it into independence in 2011, announced in 2022 that the transitional administration would hold onto power for an additional two years, postponing the planned elections.

“I give it 50/50” about the possibility that the elections in December would go as scheduled, the official stated.

Speaking as anonymous, the official issued a warning that in the event that elections are postponed or unrest breaks out, the United States may consider using sanctions and modifying its diplomatic posture in the nation.

“If there’s either a delay or violence, I think we would look at the whole suite of options, including sanctions,” the official said.

According to the official, exploring Washington’s development assistance and other avenues of involvement are further choices.

An inquiry for comment was not immediately answered by a representative of the South Sudanese administration. According to the embassy, Peter Lord, the deputy assistant secretary for East Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan, visited the nation last week and urged the leaders to take the necessary actions to host legitimate and peaceful elections in December.

However, the US diplomat issued a warning on Friday, stating that South Sudan had failed to fulfil its obligations from two years prior, which included conducting a census, creating a constitution, and establishing all the democratic institutions required for the elections to occur.

The source went on to say that there hasn’t been a careful or comprehensive procedure because electoral institutions have just recently been constituted. According to the senior official, Kiir is in favour of the elections because they would give him credibility, but several in his immediate vicinity, including Machar, are against them because they run the risk of losing in a political struggle.

Although a 2018 agreement that put an end to a five-year conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives declared South Sudan officially at peace, there are still frequent flare-ups of localised violence between competing populations.

Right now, South Sudan is in a precarious situation. Local violence between various armed groups and factions is increasing, according to UN reports.

According to UN estimates, South Sudan’s seven years of civil conflict between 2013 and 2020 resulted in 2.19 million refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries, 1.62 million internally displaced people, and 7.5 million people in need of humanitarian aid.

Musings From Abroad

Binance accuses Nigeria of setting dangerous precedent with detention of its executives

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After its executives were invited to Nigeria and subsequently arrested as part of a crackdown on cryptocurrencies, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, warned that the African nation was creating a dangerous precedent.

The largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, Binance, and two of its executives are being tried separately for tax evasion and money laundering, charges that the business is contesting.

CEO Richard Teng declared in a statement that it was time to voice opposition to the imprisonment of a US citizen and head of financial crime compliance at Binance, Tigran Gambaryan.

Former executive, Nadeem Anjarwalla, a British Kenyan who works as a regional manager for Africa, escaped detention in Nigeria last month. While in Nigeria, Anjarwalla and Gambaryan were arrested by the country’s anti-corruption body, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), after arriving on February 26, after which the country banned several websites that traded cryptocurrencies.

In a follow-up meeting on February 26, he stated that the authorities had declared the Binance concerns to be matters of national security and that they wanted the exchange to remove the naira from its site and disclose “granular-level” information on every Nigerian user. After that, Gambaryan and Anjarwalla were taken into custody.

“To invite a company’s mid-level employees for collaborative policy meetings, only to detain them, has set a dangerous new precedent for all companies worldwide,” Teng said, in his strongest comments yet since the case started in February.

“For spurious reasons,” Teng said that Gambaryan had been detained in Nigeria for almost two months. Early in March, Binance declared that it will no longer be accepting any new naira transactions.

“Our hope when we took this drastic step was that our colleagues would be released and Binance could continue to work with the Nigerian government to resolve any further concerns. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen,” said Ten.

He stated that Gambaryan ought to be permitted to return home while Binance and the Nigerian government work out any kinks. “We will continue engagement with Nigeria’s Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) on resolving potential historic tax liabilities,” he said.

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Musings From Abroad

US official accuses Russian troops of entering base housing US military in Niger

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According to a senior United States defence official quoted by Reuters, Russian military soldiers have entered an air base in Niger that is housing American troops. This action comes after the junta in Niger decided to drive out American forces.

The West African nation, which up until a coup last year had been a crucial ally for Washington’s struggle against insurgents who have killed hundreds of people and displaced millions more, had demanded that Washington remove the almost 1,000 American military personnel.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior U.S. defence official stated that Russian personnel were using a different hangar at Airbase 101, which is close to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital city of Niamey, Niger, rather than interacting with American troops.

Russian military action brings U.S. and Russian forces closer at a time when the country’s military and diplomatic rivalry is growing more intense due to the situation in Ukraine. Reuters was the first to report on the move. It also begs the question of what would happen to US installations in the nation after a pullout.

“(The situation) is not great but in the short-term manageable,” the official said.

When questioned about the Reuters article, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin downplayed the possibility that Russian forces would approach American military assets or pose a threat to American troops.

“The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment,” Austin told a press conference in Honolulu.

“I’m always focused on the safety and protection of our troops … But right now, I don’t see a significant issue here in terms of our force protection.”
The Nigerien and Russian embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

After coups that installed forces anxious to break away from Western governments in power, the United States and its allies were obliged to withdraw their troops from many African nations. Apart from the imminent withdrawal from Niger, American forces have recently departed Chad and been expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso.

Simultaneously, Russia is attempting to reinforce its ties with African countries by portraying itself as a friendlier nation with no colonial past in the region. For instance, Mali has emerged as one of Russia’s closest African friends in recent years, thanks to the deployment of the Wagner Group mercenary force there to combat jihadist insurgents.

Russia has said that ties with the United States are “below zero” due to American financial and military support for Ukraine’s defence against Russian forces on the invader’s territory.

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