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UNCTAD concerned over disruption of trade on major sea routes

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The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expressed alarm over the mounting disruptions to business, which have been linked to a 42% reduction in global trade volumes and an average $500 increase in container market freight charges.

The Suez Canal handled 12–15% of world trade in 2023, according to UNCTAD’s February 2024 report Navigating Troubled Waters. This was because the majority of ships rerouted or ceased operations as a result of Houthi rebel attacks in Yemen.

Shippers continue to have serious concerns about the Suez Canal, a vital canal that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. As a result, the vessels have been rerouted along a longer route that spans more than 1,300 kilometres through Southern Africa.

“Weekly container ship transits have fallen by 67 percent. Tanker transits and gas carriers have also seen major declines,” the report said.

The UN agency added that there have been significant changes in the oil and grain trade as a result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its effects on the Black Sea.

“The $500 surge in average container spot freight rates during the last week of December was the highest-ever weekly increase. Average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai have more than doubled (up 122 percent) since early December. Rates from Shanghai to Europe have more than tripled (up 256 percent). Rates to the US west coast increased by 162 percent,” the report added.

Egypt receives a significant amount of its foreign exchange revenue from the Suez Canal; in the fiscal year 2022–2023, it contributed $9.4 billion, or almost 2.3 percent, of its GDP.

Suez Canal revenues have reportedly dropped by 40% as a result of the Red Sea situation. A worsening scenario in Egypt can affect Ethiopia and Sudan, in addition to other nations in the area.

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IMF assessing implications of Senegal financial audit

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that a staff team has travelled to Senegal to begin evaluating the ramifications of data adjustments that emerged from a government audit of previous and ongoing initiatives that the IMF had sponsored.

IMF staff will continue to collaborate closely with the authorities in the upcoming weeks to assess the macroeconomic impact and lay out the next measures, the Fund said in a statement, even though the government’s findings have not yet been certified.

Last month, an audit of Senegal’s finances, commissioned by recently elected President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, revealed that the country’s deficit at the end of 2023 was over 10% of GDP, as opposed to the 5% that the previous administration had estimated.

Following the Fund’s evaluation in June, the government announced that it had chosen not to proceed with Senegal’s request for an IMF disbursement in July. Since then, the West African nation has been in talks with the IMF about corrective action.

From October 9 to October 16, an IMF staff team travelled to Senegal to examine the preliminary audit findings.

The next steps “will include assessing whether any misreporting occurred during previous and current IMF-supported programs”, the statement said.

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Namibia central bank drops key rate again to boost growth

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Namibia’s central bank unanimously decided to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the same size of cut as at the August meeting.

The central bank cited the country’s economy’s need for additional support and the unexpectedly rapid decline in inflation as reasons for the second consecutive meeting of its main interest rate cut.

“The MPC noted the growing momentum in the international monetary policy easing cycle, the retreat in domestic inflation over the medium term, along with the recent downside surprise in the September 2024 inflation print,” Bank of Namibia Governor Johannes Gawaxab said in a statement accompanying the decision.

The nation in southern Africa saw its annual inflation decline sharply from 4.4% in August to 3.4% in September.

The central bank’s most recent meeting on Wednesday downgraded the average inflation forecast for this year from 4.7% to 4.3%.

The revision was ascribed to a more optimistic outlook for global oil prices as well as a more robust domestic currency rate.

According to the bank, credit extension to the private sector is still muted, indicating that more assistance for the home economy is necessary.
“The domestic economy, while growing at a moderate pace, was operating below full capacity,” Gawaxab said.

In 2024, growth is expected to drop to 3.1% from 4.2% in 2023.

Regarding a $750 million redemption of Eurobonds that is scheduled for late 2025, Namibia’s governor of the central bank stated that 82% of the $500 million it wishes to retire at maturity has already been put aside.

The government is still hoping to refinance the $250 million that is left! stated Gawaxab.In 2024, growth is expected to drop to 3.1% from 4.2% in 2023.

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