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Strictly Personal

Is it too early to judge Tinubu? By Azuka Onwuka

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As the administration of President Bola Tinubu goes into its eighth month, some people believe it is too early to judge him, while others believe it is enough time. Given Tinubu’s public relations savviness, a group has started to run a TV commercial, urging Nigerians to continue to support him and give him more time to produce the expected dividends of democracy.

Buhari was so aloof that anybody who took over from him and took some steps would have some things to show as distinguishing factors. Buhari did not fail because he didn’t do enough or was unlucky to be beset by problems beyond him. He was the only Nigerian president that was so aloof, detached and unconcerned that he could not sack erring aides or call aides or officers to them, including those who were working against one another and the nation. There was something incomprehensible and inexplicable about the type of leadership Buhari offered Nigeria. It was as if he completely did not care about what happened to Nigeria as long as some preferred groups of his were not adversely affected.

Talking did not move him. Complaining did not move him. Advising did not move him neither did ridiculing. It seemed that his life-long ambition was to be called an elected president to wipe away the image of a dictator who ruled the country with the force of a gun. And having achieved that, he was satisfied so much that nothing mattered to him. His illness also made things worse. After his recovery, it seemed he no longer cared about much. He was just satisfied with doing the minimal. After the illness, it seemed as if he was not fully conscious of the things happening around him. It was only when he spoke in one of the once-in-a-blue-moon interviews that it looked as if he was aware of happenings around him.

During the campaign period, Tinubu and members of the All Progressives Congress were careful not to criticise Buhari and the impact of his misgovernance on Nigeria. They did not want anything that could anger him and make him work against them at the polls. Tinubu even praised him a few times and promised to continue with his policies if elected. They kept on with the window dressing until the Independent National Electoral Commission declared Tinubu the winner and Tinubu got inaugurated as the president. From that point, they dropped the pretences and started telling the nation that Buhari handed a ruined economy to Tinubu.

Tinubu himself set the ball rolling in July in a coded way when he addressed the nation on the worsening socio-economic challenges. In a speech titled “After Darkness Comes the Glorious Dawn,” he bemoaned the various problems that the country was facing. He, however, ended the speech on a positive note by saying: “I assure you, my fellow countrymen and women, that we are exiting the darkness to enter a new and glorious dawn.” Although Tinubu was not directly blaming Buhari, that statement implied that the era of darkness he inherited from Buhari was coming to an end.

However, six months into his administration, Tinubu was no longer ready to sugar-coat the Buhari administration. He didn’t want to be solely blamed for the situation of the economy. In November, a key figure of the Tinubu administration said that Tinubu inherited a bankrupt country. While speaking at the chief of defence intelligence annual conference, the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, made the assertion. Ribadu said inter alia:

“We are facing very serious budgetary constraints. It is okay for me to tell you. It is fine for you to know. We have a very serious situation,” he said.

“We have inherited a very difficult country, a bankrupt country to the extent that we are paying back what was taken. It is serious.”

Following the depreciation of the naira, rising cost of things as well as regular killings and kidnappings taking place in Nigeria, many people – including Tinubu’s supporters – had begun to criticise him. That seemed to have made Tinubu to decide that the time to keep quiet over what he inherited from Buhari was over.

The comment by Ribadu was like a cue for other APC people to start openly blaming Buhari for the woes of the country. That same November, Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun, said the country was almost in a comma when Tinubu came into office. “Tinubu inherited an administration that was almost comatose,” he noted.

In December, an APC chieftain and former governor of Osun State, Chief Bisi Akande, blamed Buhari for the hardship Nigerians are facing because of the removal of fuel subsidy. He argued that if Buhari had taken the courageous step of removing the fuel subsidy in 2015 when he was elected, Nigerians would have adjusted to it by now.

But many Nigerians criticised the APC members for playing the same script that Buhari played. For the eight years he was in office, Buhari and his aides and other APC members blamed his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, for the woes of the country. Tinubu was reminded that during his campaign, he promised to solve the myriad of problems of Nigeria regarding security, economy, health, education, agriculture, electricity, etc.

Eight months may not be enough for an administration to change the fortunes of a country, but it is enough to start laying the foundation for such a turnaround. It is enough for an administration to show signs that it is genuinely eager to break with the past and do things differently. Nothing of that nature has been seen in the administration of Tinubu. And because Tinubu has been doing the regular, he has not been able to convince the people to believe that a new era has begun.

The naira has continued to speedily depreciate. When Buhari took over in 2015, one dollar was exchanged in the parallel market for about N220. By the time Buhari left in May 2023, the exchange rate had dropped to about N750 for a dollar. In the eight months of Tinubu’s administration, the naira has plummeted to about N1,350 – almost 100 per cent. The sad part is that there is no sign that the fall of the naira will stop soon.
Also, inflation has continued to rise. Expectedly, prices of goods and services have been rising too. Corruption has not shown any sign of stopping. But the most critical aspect of Nigeria’s problems is the insecurity. Kidnapping for ransom as well as the massacre of communities by bandits have been the scariest issues facing most Nigerians. Consequently, many financially comfortable people who never fell into the group eager to leave Nigeria have become eager to relocate.

However, one area that has done well is the stock market, which has performed as one of the best in the world. The curious part is that nobody has been able to explain why the Nigerian Stock Exchange has been doing extremely well at a time the economy is not doing well. For example, while at the end of December 2023, Unilever ceased the production of Omo (which has been the generic name for detergent in Nigeria for many decades), Lux, Sunlight, etc, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ended as the second-best exchange in the world behind Argentina.

The task of governing Nigeria at a time like this is daunting but not insurmountable. The most important trait a leader needs to achieve that is by winning the trust of the people. And to be trusted, a leader must lead by example and display top-level transparency, honesty and humility.

Strictly Personal

If I were put in charge of a $15m African kitty, I’d first deworm children, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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One of my favourite stories on pan-African action (or in this case inaction), one I will never tire of repeating, comes from 2002, when the discredited Organisation of African Unity, was rebranded into an ambitious, new African Union (AU).

There were many big hitters in African statehouses then. Talking of those who have had the grace to step down or leave honourably after electoral or political defeat, or have departed, in Nigeria we had Olusegun Obasanjo, a force of nature. Cerebral and studious Thabo Mbeki was chief in South Africa. In Ethiopia, the brass-knuckled and searingly intellectual Meles Zenawi ruled the roost.

In Tanzania, there was the personable and thoughtful Ben Mkapa. In Botswana, there was Festus Mogae, a leader who had a way of bringing out the best in people. In Senegal, we had Abdoulaye Wade, fresh in office, and years before he went rogue.

And those are just a few.

This club of men (there were no women at the high table) brought forth the AU. At that time, there was a lot of frustration about the portrayal of Africa in international media, we decided we must “tell our own story” to the world. The AU, therefore, decided to boost the struggling Pan-African New Agency (Pana) network.

The members were asked to write cheques or pledges for it. There were millions of dollars offered by the South Africans and Nigerians of our continent. Then, as at every party, a disruptive guest made a play. Rwanda, then still roiled by the genocide against the Tutsi of 1994, offered the least money; a few tens of thousand dollars.

There were embarrassed looks all around. Some probably thought it should just have kept is mouth shut, and not made a fool of itself with its ka-money. Kigali sat unflustered. Maybe it knew something the rest didn’t.

The meeting ended, and everyone went their merry way. Pana sat and waited for the cheques to come. The big talkers didn’t walk the talk. Hardly any came, and in the sums that were pledged. Except one. The cheque from Rwanda came in the exact amount it was promised. The smallest pledge became Pana’s biggest payday.

The joke is that it was used to pay terminal benefits for Pana staff. They would have gone home empty-pocketed.

We revive this peculiarly African moment (many a deep-pocketed African will happily contribute $300 to your wedding but not 50 cents to build a school or set up a scholarship fund), to campaign for the creation of small and beautiful African things.

It was brought on by the announcement by South Korea that it had joined the African Summit bandwagon, and is shortly hosting a South Korea-Africa Summit — like the US, China, the UK, the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey do.

Apart from the AU, whose summits are in danger of turning into dubious talk shops, outside of limited regional bloc events, there is no Pan-African platform that brings the continent’s leaders together.

The AU summits are not a solutions enterprise, partly because over 60 percent of its budget is funded by non-African development partners. You can’t seriously say you are going to set up a $500 million African climate crisis fund in the hope that some Europeans will put up the money.

It’s possible to reprise the Rwanda-Pana pledge episode; a convention of African leaders and important institutions on the continent for a “Small Initiatives, Big Impact Compact”. It would be a barebones summit. In the first one, leaders would come to kickstart it by investing seed money.

The rule would be that no country would be allowed to put up more than $100,000 — far, far less than it costs some presidents and their delegations to attend one day of an AU summit.

There would also be no pledges. Everyone would come with a certified cheque that cannot bounce, or hard cash in a bag. After all, some of our leaders are no strangers to travelling around with sacks from which they hand out cash like they were sweets.

If 54 states (we will exempt the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic for special circumstances) contribute $75,000 each, that is a good $4.05 million.

If just 200 of the bigger pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank, Afrexim Bank, the giant companies such as MTN, Safaricom, East African Breweries, Nedbank, De Beers, Dangote, Orascom in Egypt, Attijariwafa Bank in Morocco, to name a few, each ponied up $75,000 each, that’s a cool $15 million just for the first year alone.

There will be a lot of imagination necessary to create magic out of it all, no doubt, but if I were asked to manage the project, I would immediately offer one small, beautiful thing to do.

After putting aside money for reasonable expenses to be paid at the end (a man has to eat) — which would be posted on a public website like all other expenditures — I would set out on a programme to get the most needy African children a dose of deworming tablets. Would do it all over for a couple of years.

Impact? Big. I read that people who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experience an increase of 14 percent in consumption expenditure, 13 percent in hourly earnings, and nine percent in non-agricultural work hours.

At the next convention, I would report back, and possibly dazzle with the names, and photographs, of all the children who got the treatment. Other than the shopping opportunity, the US-Africa Summit would have nothing on that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3

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Strictly Personal

AU shouldn’t look on as outsiders treat Africa like a widow’s house, By Joachim Buwembo

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There is no shortage of news from the UK, a major former colonial master in Africa, over whose former empire the sun reputedly never set. We hope and pray that besides watching the Premier League, the managers of our economies are also monitoring the re-nationalisation of British Railways (BR).

 

Three decades after BR was privatised in the early to mid-nineties — around the season when Africa was hit by the privatisation fashion — there is emerging consensus by both conservative and liberal parties that it is time the major public transport system reverts to state management.

 

Yes, there are major services that should be rendered by the state, and the public must not be abandoned to the vagaries of purely profit-motivated capitalism. It is not enough to only argue that government is not good at doing business, because some business is government business.

 

Since we copied many of our systems from the British — including wigs for judges — we may as well copy the humility to accept if certain fashions don’t work.

 

Another piece of news from the UK, besides football, was of this conservative MP Tim Loughton, who caused a stir by getting summarily deported from Djibouti and claiming the small African country was just doing China’s bidding because he recently rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

 

China has dismissed the accusation as baseless, and Africa still respects China for not meddling in its politics, even as it negotiates economic partnerships. China generously co-funded the construction of Djibouti’s super modern multipurpose port.

 

What can African leaders learn from the Loughton Djibouti kerfuffle? The race to think for and manage Africa by outsiders is still on and attracting new players.

 

While China has described the Loughton accusation as lies, it shows that the accusing (and presumably informed) Britons suspect other powerful countries to be on a quest to influence African thinking and actions.

 

And while the new bidders for Africa’s resources are on the increase including Russia, the US, Middle Eastern newly rich states, and India, even declining powers like France, which is losing ground in West Africa, could be looking for weaker states to gain a new foothold.

 

My Ugandan people describe such a situation as treating a community like “like a widow’s house,” because the poor, defenceless woman is susceptible to having her door kicked open by any local bully. Yes, these small and weak countries are not insignificant and offer fertile ground for the indirect re-colonisation of the continent.

 

Djibouti, for example, may be small —at only 23,000square kilometres, with a population of one million doing hardly any farming, thus relying on imports for most of its food — but it is so strategically located that the African Union should look at it as precious territory that must be protected from external political influences.

 

It commands the southern entrance into the Red Sea, thus linking Africa to the Middle East. So if several foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti, why shouldn’t the AU, with its growing “peace kitty,” now be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars?

 

At a bilateral level, Ethiopia and Djibouti are doing impressively well in developing infrastructure such as the railway link, a whole 750 kilometres of it electrified. The AU should be looking at more such projects linking up the whole continent to increase internal trade with the continental market, the fastest growing in the world.

 

And, while at it, the AU should be resolutely pushing out fossil-fuel-based transportation the way Ethiopia is doing, without even making much noise about it. Ethiopia can be quite resolute in conceiving and implementing projects, and surely the AU, being headquartered in Addis Ababa, should be taking a leaf rather than looking on as external interests treat the continent like a Ugandan widow’s house.

 

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:buwembo@gmail.com

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