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Inside the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s Tensions and Regional Implications, By Abdul Rafay Afzal

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a colossal hydroelectric dam project on the Blue Nile River, has garnered both praise and concern from countries in the region and international actors.

As this transformative project inches closer to completion, the diplomatic tensions – notably between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have escalated, causing disquiet and affecting the geopolitical dynamics of the region.

The GERD, initiated in 2011 and operational from 2022, is a source of national pride for Ethiopia, with hopes of achieving a more sustainable, self-sufficient energy future.

Ethiopia’s ambition to become the largest hydropower producer in Africa and to electrify millions of homes, boost industries, and create jobs presents a positive outlook. Nevertheless, increasing disputes concerning water-sharing arrangements have underpinned the root of escalating diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Egypt, primarily dependent on the Nile waters for drinking, agriculture, and industry, fears that the dam’s construction and operation might significantly reduce the flow of water downstream, impacting its availability for its population.

They contend that the slowing of the waters may worsen water scarcity, lead to economic setbacks, and possibly spark civil unrest. Sudan, on the other hand, is apprehensive about the dam’s potential for disrupting its water supply and exacerbating the existing water troubles in the region.

While Ethiopia maintains that the project’s gains outweigh the risks, it is important to consider the broader regional implications. Ethiopia’s Nile water utilization has not always aligned with the historical rights and agreements that advantage Egypt.

These comprise the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which granted Egypt the vetting power over any upstream projects. Undoubtedly, the GERD represents a shift in the region’s power dynamics, placing Ethiopia in a more influential position than ever before.

International action

Amid the tripartite negotiations mediated by the African Union, international players have taken on various roles. The United States, under President Trump’s administration, tried to mediate the dispute; this ultimately failed and led to Ethiopia accusing the U.S. of bias towards Egypt.

The European Union has also become engaged in the process, urging for a fair agreement honoring the parties’ interests and maintaining regional stability.

China, with its significant investments throughout Africa, has backed Ethiopia in the project by providing loans and technical support. Ethiopia’s ascent as an East African power aligns with China’s geopolitical ambitions on the continent, solidifying even more cooperation with Beijing.

However, China also maintains important strategic relationships with Egypt and Sudan, illustrating its vested interest in maintaining regional harmony.

Pakistan, albeit not a direct stakeholder, has consistently monitored the development of the GERD. As a recipient of Chinese investment through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the country pays close attention to its strategic partner’s initiatives.

Pakistan’s support for Ethiopia in completing the project enhances its relationship with China, further bolstering its position in South Asia.

What actions to take

Given these complex regional and global interests, it is crucial to seek a mutually satisfactory solution.

Ethiopia’s endeavors to eradicate energy poverty and establish itself as a significant power force on the African continent are commendable. The international community’s pragmatic stance and prioritization of equitable arrangements could contribute to striking a balance between Ethiopian aspirations vis-à-vis Egyptian and Sudanese concerns.

To mitigate tensions, Ethiopia must remain open to a fair, realistic agreement that addresses water rights and shares responsibilities. Acknowledging downstream nations’ apprehensions regarding water security and optimal operation of the dam is imperative. Crafting a solution that accommodates all parties involved can only be achieved through constructive, diplomatic dialogue

Moreover, the global powers involved should use their influence to prevent escalations and foster cooperation and transparency among the disputing parties. Striking a fine balance between supporting Ethiopia’s growth aspirations and ensuring the preservation of regional stability is the ultimate diplomatic challenge.

In conclusion, the GERD catalyzes change in the regional power dynamics in North-East Africa. The heightened diplomatic tensions demand a consensus-oriented approach in which Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan work together on managing the equitable distribution of Nile waters.

Global powers need to provide facilitative assistance, fostering an environment for a resolution that benefits everyone involved. This comprehensive approach ensures support for Ethiopia’s commendable developmental ambitions while protecting the fundamental water security concerns of neighboring countries.

Strictly Personal

If I were put in charge of a $15m African kitty, I’d first deworm children, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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One of my favourite stories on pan-African action (or in this case inaction), one I will never tire of repeating, comes from 2002, when the discredited Organisation of African Unity, was rebranded into an ambitious, new African Union (AU).

There were many big hitters in African statehouses then. Talking of those who have had the grace to step down or leave honourably after electoral or political defeat, or have departed, in Nigeria we had Olusegun Obasanjo, a force of nature. Cerebral and studious Thabo Mbeki was chief in South Africa. In Ethiopia, the brass-knuckled and searingly intellectual Meles Zenawi ruled the roost.

In Tanzania, there was the personable and thoughtful Ben Mkapa. In Botswana, there was Festus Mogae, a leader who had a way of bringing out the best in people. In Senegal, we had Abdoulaye Wade, fresh in office, and years before he went rogue.

And those are just a few.

This club of men (there were no women at the high table) brought forth the AU. At that time, there was a lot of frustration about the portrayal of Africa in international media, we decided we must “tell our own story” to the world. The AU, therefore, decided to boost the struggling Pan-African New Agency (Pana) network.

The members were asked to write cheques or pledges for it. There were millions of dollars offered by the South Africans and Nigerians of our continent. Then, as at every party, a disruptive guest made a play. Rwanda, then still roiled by the genocide against the Tutsi of 1994, offered the least money; a few tens of thousand dollars.

There were embarrassed looks all around. Some probably thought it should just have kept is mouth shut, and not made a fool of itself with its ka-money. Kigali sat unflustered. Maybe it knew something the rest didn’t.

The meeting ended, and everyone went their merry way. Pana sat and waited for the cheques to come. The big talkers didn’t walk the talk. Hardly any came, and in the sums that were pledged. Except one. The cheque from Rwanda came in the exact amount it was promised. The smallest pledge became Pana’s biggest payday.

The joke is that it was used to pay terminal benefits for Pana staff. They would have gone home empty-pocketed.

We revive this peculiarly African moment (many a deep-pocketed African will happily contribute $300 to your wedding but not 50 cents to build a school or set up a scholarship fund), to campaign for the creation of small and beautiful African things.

It was brought on by the announcement by South Korea that it had joined the African Summit bandwagon, and is shortly hosting a South Korea-Africa Summit — like the US, China, the UK, the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey do.

Apart from the AU, whose summits are in danger of turning into dubious talk shops, outside of limited regional bloc events, there is no Pan-African platform that brings the continent’s leaders together.

The AU summits are not a solutions enterprise, partly because over 60 percent of its budget is funded by non-African development partners. You can’t seriously say you are going to set up a $500 million African climate crisis fund in the hope that some Europeans will put up the money.

It’s possible to reprise the Rwanda-Pana pledge episode; a convention of African leaders and important institutions on the continent for a “Small Initiatives, Big Impact Compact”. It would be a barebones summit. In the first one, leaders would come to kickstart it by investing seed money.

The rule would be that no country would be allowed to put up more than $100,000 — far, far less than it costs some presidents and their delegations to attend one day of an AU summit.

There would also be no pledges. Everyone would come with a certified cheque that cannot bounce, or hard cash in a bag. After all, some of our leaders are no strangers to travelling around with sacks from which they hand out cash like they were sweets.

If 54 states (we will exempt the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic for special circumstances) contribute $75,000 each, that is a good $4.05 million.

If just 200 of the bigger pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank, Afrexim Bank, the giant companies such as MTN, Safaricom, East African Breweries, Nedbank, De Beers, Dangote, Orascom in Egypt, Attijariwafa Bank in Morocco, to name a few, each ponied up $75,000 each, that’s a cool $15 million just for the first year alone.

There will be a lot of imagination necessary to create magic out of it all, no doubt, but if I were asked to manage the project, I would immediately offer one small, beautiful thing to do.

After putting aside money for reasonable expenses to be paid at the end (a man has to eat) — which would be posted on a public website like all other expenditures — I would set out on a programme to get the most needy African children a dose of deworming tablets. Would do it all over for a couple of years.

Impact? Big. I read that people who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experience an increase of 14 percent in consumption expenditure, 13 percent in hourly earnings, and nine percent in non-agricultural work hours.

At the next convention, I would report back, and possibly dazzle with the names, and photographs, of all the children who got the treatment. Other than the shopping opportunity, the US-Africa Summit would have nothing on that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3

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Strictly Personal

AU shouldn’t look on as outsiders treat Africa like a widow’s house, By Joachim Buwembo

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There is no shortage of news from the UK, a major former colonial master in Africa, over whose former empire the sun reputedly never set. We hope and pray that besides watching the Premier League, the managers of our economies are also monitoring the re-nationalisation of British Railways (BR).

 

Three decades after BR was privatised in the early to mid-nineties — around the season when Africa was hit by the privatisation fashion — there is emerging consensus by both conservative and liberal parties that it is time the major public transport system reverts to state management.

 

Yes, there are major services that should be rendered by the state, and the public must not be abandoned to the vagaries of purely profit-motivated capitalism. It is not enough to only argue that government is not good at doing business, because some business is government business.

 

Since we copied many of our systems from the British — including wigs for judges — we may as well copy the humility to accept if certain fashions don’t work.

 

Another piece of news from the UK, besides football, was of this conservative MP Tim Loughton, who caused a stir by getting summarily deported from Djibouti and claiming the small African country was just doing China’s bidding because he recently rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

 

China has dismissed the accusation as baseless, and Africa still respects China for not meddling in its politics, even as it negotiates economic partnerships. China generously co-funded the construction of Djibouti’s super modern multipurpose port.

 

What can African leaders learn from the Loughton Djibouti kerfuffle? The race to think for and manage Africa by outsiders is still on and attracting new players.

 

While China has described the Loughton accusation as lies, it shows that the accusing (and presumably informed) Britons suspect other powerful countries to be on a quest to influence African thinking and actions.

 

And while the new bidders for Africa’s resources are on the increase including Russia, the US, Middle Eastern newly rich states, and India, even declining powers like France, which is losing ground in West Africa, could be looking for weaker states to gain a new foothold.

 

My Ugandan people describe such a situation as treating a community like “like a widow’s house,” because the poor, defenceless woman is susceptible to having her door kicked open by any local bully. Yes, these small and weak countries are not insignificant and offer fertile ground for the indirect re-colonisation of the continent.

 

Djibouti, for example, may be small —at only 23,000square kilometres, with a population of one million doing hardly any farming, thus relying on imports for most of its food — but it is so strategically located that the African Union should look at it as precious territory that must be protected from external political influences.

 

It commands the southern entrance into the Red Sea, thus linking Africa to the Middle East. So if several foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti, why shouldn’t the AU, with its growing “peace kitty,” now be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars?

 

At a bilateral level, Ethiopia and Djibouti are doing impressively well in developing infrastructure such as the railway link, a whole 750 kilometres of it electrified. The AU should be looking at more such projects linking up the whole continent to increase internal trade with the continental market, the fastest growing in the world.

 

And, while at it, the AU should be resolutely pushing out fossil-fuel-based transportation the way Ethiopia is doing, without even making much noise about it. Ethiopia can be quite resolute in conceiving and implementing projects, and surely the AU, being headquartered in Addis Ababa, should be taking a leaf rather than looking on as external interests treat the continent like a Ugandan widow’s house.

 

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:buwembo@gmail.com

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