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IMF advises Nigeria’s central bank to raise Monetary Policy Rate

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Nigeria’s central bank (CBN) to further hike Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).

The IMF Director of Communications, Ms. Julie Kozack, in Washington DC, United States of America,
on Saturday stressing that the liquidity mop-up being undertaken by the CBN was already addressing the high inflationary rate of over 27%, but the rate must be further adjusted at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

The IMF chief also commended recent policy actions on the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of exchange rates by the Nigerian government.

Nigeria’s short-term interest rate was reported at 17.67 % pa in Oct 2023, compared with 8.67 % pa in the previous month. The data reached an all-time high of 22.95 % pa in Mar 2012 and a record low of 0.36 % pa in Nov 2020.

In her response to questions on Nigeria, she noted that “President Tinubu has implemented two bold and important reforms shortly after taking office.

“The first is on fuel subsidies. Nigeria’s fuel subsidies were costly, especially for the budget, and not well targeted to provide relief for vulnerable households, and so this was rectified. And the second was unifying of the official exchange rate and that removed long standing distortions of the multiple exchange rate system.

“You asked a specific question on inflation. Inflation in Nigeria is running very high. It reached over 27 percent in October, that is the year-on-year number.

“The Central bank, under its new leadership, has started to withdraw excess liquidity that was in the system and contributing to high inflation.

“The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting should further raise policy interest rate. So, the Central bank is taking action to try to address the high inflation problem. As we mentioned in our Article IV Consultation, which was held in February of 2023, raising revenue from the very current low revenue to GDP ratio of 9 percent is essential to create fiscal space for social and development spending. 9 percent of GDP is a very low revenue to GDP ratio, and it is really not high enough to be able to support strong social safety nets, and development spending, to help protect vulnerable households and also to meet Nigeria’s development needs.

”The 2024 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit while also creating space for these priority spendings, both on the social side and also on the development side.”

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Nigeria’s Petroleum Regulator begins bidding round for 12 oil blocks

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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has announced the start of the bidding process for 12 oil blocks recently put up for sale. It also marks the beginning of the 2024 Nigeria Petroleum Licensing Round and the continuation of the 2022/2023 mini-bid round.

This was stated in a press release issued by the commission’s CEO, Gbenga Komolafe, on Monday in Abuja. Last month, the commission made the first announcement about the bidding process.

It also waived the signing bonus requirement throughout the bidding process to entice investors to bid on the auctioned oil blocks.

He said, “On behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission is pleased to announce the commencement of the 2024 Petroleum Licensing Round.”

On the number of blocks for the offer, Komolafe noted, “We have identified 12 blocks that cut across deep offshore, shallow water and onshore terrains to be made available to interested investors.”

According to him, this licensing round represents a key milestone in our commitment to supporting long-term growth and innovation in the energy sector, as well as creating economic prospects for investment to stimulate new exploration and development activities in our petroleum landscape.

He explained that the 2024 Licensing Round will provide an opportunity for domestic and foreign parties to participate in the exploration and development of Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources. He emphasized that having access to high-quality geological and geophysical data is important to this approach.

Komolafe stated that the National Data Repository of NUPRC, in partnership with multi-client partners, is committed to providing prospective bidders with access to broad and strong datasets to help them make better decisions.

Commenting on the 12-block offer, he stated that it is consistent with the licensing round’s objectives and includes a varied range of exploratory possibilities and discoveries with varying technical and operational preferences.

Komolafe added, “Our goal for this licensing round is to harness innovative exploration techniques and foster partnerships that will enhance our production capabilities and ensure environmental sustainability.

“We anticipate that this initiative will not only expand our operations but also significantly contribute to the global energy supply, aligning with international energy security goals.”

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Ecobank’s $183 million impairment losses highlight hazards in sovereign bonds

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Ecobank, a pan-African banking group, has more than doubled its impairment losses on Ghana’s problematic Eurobonds to $183 million, highlighting the extent of risk that African lenders face when investing in state bonds.

The Lome-based lender also stated that it had removed around $39 million in interest income collected on the $13 billion Ghanaian Eurobonds from its 2023 financial statements due to continuing and yet-to-be-completed restructuring discussions with commercial bondholders.

The latest impairment losses represent a 144%  increase from $75 million in 2022.

“As of year-end 2023, the total impairment charges on Government of Ghana Eurobonds are estimated at $183 million, a significant rise from $75 million in year-end 2022,” the lender says in its audited financial statement for 2023.

“Additionally, $26 million of modification losses were incurred on the GoG debt net of impairment charge releases due to the final settlement of the old bonds for the new bonds in February under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.

Ecobank operates in 35 African nations, including Kenya, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire. Moody’s Investor Service, a global rating organization, has previously urged banks against excessive lending to governments, warning that their credit profiles risk being lowered alongside those of governments facing liquidity constraints.

Zambia secured an agreement with its creditors in March to restructure $3.5 billion Eurobonds, bringing respite to Lusaka, which has been grappling with a long-running debt problem. As part of the agreement, bondholders agreed to extend payment dates, allowing Lusaka to continue receiving funding from a $1.3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) project.

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