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Global politics looks like high school, By Mitch Ilbury

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Chants of anti-establishment frustration echo across Johannesburg this week as leaders from China, India, Brazil, and noticeably, not Russia, descend upon South Africa for the XV BRICS Summit. The chorus will ring: western dominance is over; it’s time for a new world order.

The dividing lines between East and West, global North and global South, have not been this stark since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Now, just like then, the differences are narrative-based, sold on the reputations of past, present and future identities.

It’s like high school all over again, with camps forming around who will be the cool kids. South Africa seems lost or awestruck; the default will be relegation to a loser clique.

Schoolyard tactics

If you look at the landing page of the brics2023.gov.za website, which could have been coded in the 1990s, every one of the five national leaders is smiling except for Vladimir Putin. Granted, he has never been a happy-go-lucky guy, but his sour pout looks incredibly lemony in contrast to the other leaders grinning with apparent excitement.

President Ramaphosa is notably beaming from ear to ear. He has good reason. Doing what he does best, he has somehow managed to dance on the pinhead of diplomatic negotiations to convince Putin to attend the summit virtually, presumably via Zoom, not Teams.

It’s a massive relief for South Africa’s diplomatic corps, even though I don’t believe Bheki Cele has the guts or ideological will to arrest Putin if he had come. Still, Cele’s probably ruing the chance to make a stunning front-page spread with his latest fedora feather.

Rtional rules-based system provides the framework and legitimacy for our sovereign actions. It’s a bit like being in high school – we can rebel, grow our sideburns, or hike our skirts above the knees, but detention is looming if we misbehave. It’s school rules.

South Africa has been hormonal over the last 18 months. We’ve been scribbling secret letters spilling our teenage crushes on Russia and China while gossiping about the hypocrisy of our capitalist quarterback ex-boyfriend.

All the while, bully battle lines are being drawn across the global schoolyard. China stands with both fists clenched on one side of the chalk staring at the United States on the other. When the bell rings for break, South Africa must choose sides or be wedgied by its fence-sitting.

When the bell tolls

Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and dozens of other countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS. The five-member power bloc has been relatively ineffectual to date, but if these countries do join, it will mark the most significant geopolitical shift in world order since the Bretton Woods Agreement in the aftermath of WWII.

De-dollarisation could be the key thread underpinning the transition. Brazil, Russia and China already use the yuan for trade among themselves, and China is desperate to extend this. Its popularity will go a long way if it could shove aside the greenback as the world’s reserve currency.

Now throw this spanner in the works: de-dollarisation coinciding with a Trump presidency. He is a tool, and his hammer-like pugilism will not let US dominance go quietly into the night. Trump will come out punching, emboldened by a momentum-riding comeback. The futility of the fight against something as intangible as de-dollarisation will only make him more dangerous – the bully with no obvious victim will jam his finger at everyone to deflect his own vulnerabilities.

A transition in world order from one popularity clique to another will involve economic, political, and cultural collateral, with the potential for military conflict on a world-war scale.

So, which clique will South Africa choose?

The party is starting

The alignment consequences will be significant no matter which direction South Africa chooses. I sensed great concern in the executive team of a JSE-listed company I worked with recently. They all worried about a key US client vowing to remove all investment in South Africa in the wake of the Lady R scandal. It is not just a matter of reputation for US firms doing business with South Africa; it’s about legality.

The schoolyard power plays that global politics is continually shifting. As hard as we have tried in the past to play along and paint our nails Barbie pink, put metal rings in our noses and plugs in our ears, or wear our caps backwards like preppy Paul, we haven’t yet found our high school identity – we neither fully align East or West, nor represent part of the developed or developing world. We seem unprepared, overwhelmed, and far too ready to please everyone.

The BRICS Summit is an opportunity to scan the schoolyard and decisively pick a side.

– Mitch Ilbury is a best-selling author and director of the specialist strategy firm, Mindofafox.

Strictly Personal

If I were put in charge of a $15m African kitty, I’d first deworm children, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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One of my favourite stories on pan-African action (or in this case inaction), one I will never tire of repeating, comes from 2002, when the discredited Organisation of African Unity, was rebranded into an ambitious, new African Union (AU).

There were many big hitters in African statehouses then. Talking of those who have had the grace to step down or leave honourably after electoral or political defeat, or have departed, in Nigeria we had Olusegun Obasanjo, a force of nature. Cerebral and studious Thabo Mbeki was chief in South Africa. In Ethiopia, the brass-knuckled and searingly intellectual Meles Zenawi ruled the roost.

In Tanzania, there was the personable and thoughtful Ben Mkapa. In Botswana, there was Festus Mogae, a leader who had a way of bringing out the best in people. In Senegal, we had Abdoulaye Wade, fresh in office, and years before he went rogue.

And those are just a few.

This club of men (there were no women at the high table) brought forth the AU. At that time, there was a lot of frustration about the portrayal of Africa in international media, we decided we must “tell our own story” to the world. The AU, therefore, decided to boost the struggling Pan-African New Agency (Pana) network.

The members were asked to write cheques or pledges for it. There were millions of dollars offered by the South Africans and Nigerians of our continent. Then, as at every party, a disruptive guest made a play. Rwanda, then still roiled by the genocide against the Tutsi of 1994, offered the least money; a few tens of thousand dollars.

There were embarrassed looks all around. Some probably thought it should just have kept is mouth shut, and not made a fool of itself with its ka-money. Kigali sat unflustered. Maybe it knew something the rest didn’t.

The meeting ended, and everyone went their merry way. Pana sat and waited for the cheques to come. The big talkers didn’t walk the talk. Hardly any came, and in the sums that were pledged. Except one. The cheque from Rwanda came in the exact amount it was promised. The smallest pledge became Pana’s biggest payday.

The joke is that it was used to pay terminal benefits for Pana staff. They would have gone home empty-pocketed.

We revive this peculiarly African moment (many a deep-pocketed African will happily contribute $300 to your wedding but not 50 cents to build a school or set up a scholarship fund), to campaign for the creation of small and beautiful African things.

It was brought on by the announcement by South Korea that it had joined the African Summit bandwagon, and is shortly hosting a South Korea-Africa Summit — like the US, China, the UK, the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey do.

Apart from the AU, whose summits are in danger of turning into dubious talk shops, outside of limited regional bloc events, there is no Pan-African platform that brings the continent’s leaders together.

The AU summits are not a solutions enterprise, partly because over 60 percent of its budget is funded by non-African development partners. You can’t seriously say you are going to set up a $500 million African climate crisis fund in the hope that some Europeans will put up the money.

It’s possible to reprise the Rwanda-Pana pledge episode; a convention of African leaders and important institutions on the continent for a “Small Initiatives, Big Impact Compact”. It would be a barebones summit. In the first one, leaders would come to kickstart it by investing seed money.

The rule would be that no country would be allowed to put up more than $100,000 — far, far less than it costs some presidents and their delegations to attend one day of an AU summit.

There would also be no pledges. Everyone would come with a certified cheque that cannot bounce, or hard cash in a bag. After all, some of our leaders are no strangers to travelling around with sacks from which they hand out cash like they were sweets.

If 54 states (we will exempt the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic for special circumstances) contribute $75,000 each, that is a good $4.05 million.

If just 200 of the bigger pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank, Afrexim Bank, the giant companies such as MTN, Safaricom, East African Breweries, Nedbank, De Beers, Dangote, Orascom in Egypt, Attijariwafa Bank in Morocco, to name a few, each ponied up $75,000 each, that’s a cool $15 million just for the first year alone.

There will be a lot of imagination necessary to create magic out of it all, no doubt, but if I were asked to manage the project, I would immediately offer one small, beautiful thing to do.

After putting aside money for reasonable expenses to be paid at the end (a man has to eat) — which would be posted on a public website like all other expenditures — I would set out on a programme to get the most needy African children a dose of deworming tablets. Would do it all over for a couple of years.

Impact? Big. I read that people who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experience an increase of 14 percent in consumption expenditure, 13 percent in hourly earnings, and nine percent in non-agricultural work hours.

At the next convention, I would report back, and possibly dazzle with the names, and photographs, of all the children who got the treatment. Other than the shopping opportunity, the US-Africa Summit would have nothing on that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3

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Strictly Personal

AU shouldn’t look on as outsiders treat Africa like a widow’s house, By Joachim Buwembo

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There is no shortage of news from the UK, a major former colonial master in Africa, over whose former empire the sun reputedly never set. We hope and pray that besides watching the Premier League, the managers of our economies are also monitoring the re-nationalisation of British Railways (BR).

 

Three decades after BR was privatised in the early to mid-nineties — around the season when Africa was hit by the privatisation fashion — there is emerging consensus by both conservative and liberal parties that it is time the major public transport system reverts to state management.

 

Yes, there are major services that should be rendered by the state, and the public must not be abandoned to the vagaries of purely profit-motivated capitalism. It is not enough to only argue that government is not good at doing business, because some business is government business.

 

Since we copied many of our systems from the British — including wigs for judges — we may as well copy the humility to accept if certain fashions don’t work.

 

Another piece of news from the UK, besides football, was of this conservative MP Tim Loughton, who caused a stir by getting summarily deported from Djibouti and claiming the small African country was just doing China’s bidding because he recently rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

 

China has dismissed the accusation as baseless, and Africa still respects China for not meddling in its politics, even as it negotiates economic partnerships. China generously co-funded the construction of Djibouti’s super modern multipurpose port.

 

What can African leaders learn from the Loughton Djibouti kerfuffle? The race to think for and manage Africa by outsiders is still on and attracting new players.

 

While China has described the Loughton accusation as lies, it shows that the accusing (and presumably informed) Britons suspect other powerful countries to be on a quest to influence African thinking and actions.

 

And while the new bidders for Africa’s resources are on the increase including Russia, the US, Middle Eastern newly rich states, and India, even declining powers like France, which is losing ground in West Africa, could be looking for weaker states to gain a new foothold.

 

My Ugandan people describe such a situation as treating a community like “like a widow’s house,” because the poor, defenceless woman is susceptible to having her door kicked open by any local bully. Yes, these small and weak countries are not insignificant and offer fertile ground for the indirect re-colonisation of the continent.

 

Djibouti, for example, may be small —at only 23,000square kilometres, with a population of one million doing hardly any farming, thus relying on imports for most of its food — but it is so strategically located that the African Union should look at it as precious territory that must be protected from external political influences.

 

It commands the southern entrance into the Red Sea, thus linking Africa to the Middle East. So if several foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti, why shouldn’t the AU, with its growing “peace kitty,” now be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars?

 

At a bilateral level, Ethiopia and Djibouti are doing impressively well in developing infrastructure such as the railway link, a whole 750 kilometres of it electrified. The AU should be looking at more such projects linking up the whole continent to increase internal trade with the continental market, the fastest growing in the world.

 

And, while at it, the AU should be resolutely pushing out fossil-fuel-based transportation the way Ethiopia is doing, without even making much noise about it. Ethiopia can be quite resolute in conceiving and implementing projects, and surely the AU, being headquartered in Addis Ababa, should be taking a leaf rather than looking on as external interests treat the continent like a Ugandan widow’s house.

 

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:buwembo@gmail.com

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