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Musings From Abroad

Russia’s Wagner rebellion lingers, but what’s in it for Africa?

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There are concerns that the reported revolt of the Russian mercenary— Wagner Group against the state could significantly affect diplomatic relations of some African countries, notably, Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burkina Faso, amongst others.

Wagner’s head, Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday accused the Russian army of shelling his fighters. He later released a series of messages from late Friday into Saturday, claiming that he and his mercenary troops had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and taken control of its military sites.

In reaction, Russian President Vladimir Putin has labelled the Wagner uprising a “stab in the back”, and vowed to punish “traitors”, even as the Russian forces step up to repel the mutiny.

The African dimension of the development is apt as both Mali and the CAR have openly engaged Wagner in their fights against terrorism with Wagner forces stationed on their soil despite contradictory positions by the United Nations, the United States, and France.

Should Mali be worried about fallout? A political analyst quoted by Reuters, Bassirou Doumbia, said “(Wagner’s) presence in Mali is sponsored by the Kremlin and if Wagner is at odds with the Kremlin … naturally Mali will suffer the consequences on the security front.”

Another expert on the subject, Yvan Guichaoua, who is a senior lecturer at the Brussels School of International Studies, said: “(The) exact consequences for Mali really depend on factors largely unknown such as the organisational autonomy of Wagner and their chain of command, and, of course, whether things escalate or not between (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Wagner.”

Similar circumstances exist in CAR, where the government has been assisted by hundreds of Russian operatives, including several from the Wagner Group, in fighting multiple rebel insurgencies since 2018.

Burkina Faso, another country faced with terrorism, through its defence minister, Colonel Kassoum Coulibaly, last month denied that Wagner forces were on the ground for its fight against terrorism despite reports in Western media.

According to leaked US records, Wagner has operated in at least eight different African countries over the past ten years, including Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic.

Mali in its part has severed relations, notably with France in recent months to keep up its ties with Russia. Will the Wager revolt inspire a change in diplomatic stands in the continent, particularly with defence ties in the wake of rising anti-France postures in the Sahel? Time will tell as the events unfold.

Musings From Abroad

Binance accuses Nigeria of setting dangerous precedent with detention of its executives

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After its executives were invited to Nigeria and subsequently arrested as part of a crackdown on cryptocurrencies, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, warned that the African nation was creating a dangerous precedent.

The largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, Binance, and two of its executives are being tried separately for tax evasion and money laundering, charges that the business is contesting.

CEO Richard Teng declared in a statement that it was time to voice opposition to the imprisonment of a US citizen and head of financial crime compliance at Binance, Tigran Gambaryan.

Former executive, Nadeem Anjarwalla, a British Kenyan who works as a regional manager for Africa, escaped detention in Nigeria last month. While in Nigeria, Anjarwalla and Gambaryan were arrested by the country’s anti-corruption body, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), after arriving on February 26, after which the country banned several websites that traded cryptocurrencies.

In a follow-up meeting on February 26, he stated that the authorities had declared the Binance concerns to be matters of national security and that they wanted the exchange to remove the naira from its site and disclose “granular-level” information on every Nigerian user. After that, Gambaryan and Anjarwalla were taken into custody.

“To invite a company’s mid-level employees for collaborative policy meetings, only to detain them, has set a dangerous new precedent for all companies worldwide,” Teng said, in his strongest comments yet since the case started in February.

“For spurious reasons,” Teng said that Gambaryan had been detained in Nigeria for almost two months. Early in March, Binance declared that it will no longer be accepting any new naira transactions.

“Our hope when we took this drastic step was that our colleagues would be released and Binance could continue to work with the Nigerian government to resolve any further concerns. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen,” said Ten.

He stated that Gambaryan ought to be permitted to return home while Binance and the Nigerian government work out any kinks. “We will continue engagement with Nigeria’s Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) on resolving potential historic tax liabilities,” he said.

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Musings From Abroad

US official accuses Russian troops of entering base housing US military in Niger

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According to a senior United States defence official quoted by Reuters, Russian military soldiers have entered an air base in Niger that is housing American troops. This action comes after the junta in Niger decided to drive out American forces.

The West African nation, which up until a coup last year had been a crucial ally for Washington’s struggle against insurgents who have killed hundreds of people and displaced millions more, had demanded that Washington remove the almost 1,000 American military personnel.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior U.S. defence official stated that Russian personnel were using a different hangar at Airbase 101, which is close to Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital city of Niamey, Niger, rather than interacting with American troops.

Russian military action brings U.S. and Russian forces closer at a time when the country’s military and diplomatic rivalry is growing more intense due to the situation in Ukraine. Reuters was the first to report on the move. It also begs the question of what would happen to US installations in the nation after a pullout.

“(The situation) is not great but in the short-term manageable,” the official said.

When questioned about the Reuters article, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin downplayed the possibility that Russian forces would approach American military assets or pose a threat to American troops.

“The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment,” Austin told a press conference in Honolulu.

“I’m always focused on the safety and protection of our troops … But right now, I don’t see a significant issue here in terms of our force protection.”
The Nigerien and Russian embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

After coups that installed forces anxious to break away from Western governments in power, the United States and its allies were obliged to withdraw their troops from many African nations. Apart from the imminent withdrawal from Niger, American forces have recently departed Chad and been expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso.

Simultaneously, Russia is attempting to reinforce its ties with African countries by portraying itself as a friendlier nation with no colonial past in the region. For instance, Mali has emerged as one of Russia’s closest African friends in recent years, thanks to the deployment of the Wagner Group mercenary force there to combat jihadist insurgents.

Russia has said that ties with the United States are “below zero” due to American financial and military support for Ukraine’s defence against Russian forces on the invader’s territory.

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