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Strictly Personal

The Double Encirclement of Morocco on the Diplomatic Frontline, By Aziz Boucetta

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Ever since King Mohammed VI’s speech in 2016 in Riyadh, the position of Morocco has been evolving, and its diplomatic relations are on the move, with both lines of alliance and fracture. The combination of Morocco’s new geopolitical ambitions in addition to the internal political shifts occurring in its neighboring countries created a sort of hostility in its immediate, and even secondary environment. Abdallah Laroui used to say that Morocco is an island; that is the case now more than ever.

What sets the country apart from its neighbors is its long-lasting monarchy, namely that its ruling monarchy breeds resilience and constancy across centuries whereas in neighboring countries, leaders and policies have changed radically over the past few years. This creates a divide in the diplomatic landscape of the region.

The first line of neighbors

In Spain, the arrival of Pedro Sanchez in 2018 after the Mariano Rajoy government’s seven years in power allowed for a spectacular rapprochement between Madrid and Rabat on the heels of, admittedly, a nearly complete freezing of relations. The letter the Spanish Prime Minister sent King Mohammed VI in March 2022 has considerably strengthened ties between Madrid and Rabat.. However, Morocco still remains the “unloved one” of Spanish foreign and even domestic policy.

Sanchez’s famed letter to the Moroccan monarch has created a lot of turmoil for its author, both from the perspective of Spanish society at large and, above all, from that of the political class, which saw his gesture as the Spanish government’s capitulation to Moroccan demands. The durability of the newfound Morocco-Spain reconciliation therefore remains open to question, despite Spanish Prime Ministers’ tendency to embrace realpolitik once in office.

The Algerian case is clearer in this regard. Hostility towards Morocco has been the constant in Algeria since 1963, with the exception of rare phases of improvement. During the Bouteflika era (1999–2019), relations between Algiers and Rabat were a “stormy friendship” at times, but most often a “courteous” animosity. Ever since the arrival of the Chengriha-Tebboune duo, however, the two countries have never been closer to a direct confrontation, with increasingly sealed borders, broken or severed diplomatic relations, and access to Algerian skies restricted to Moroccan aircrafts…

Faced with such a bellicose neighbor, Morocco has increasingly taken steps to prepare for any eventuality. The best signs of the kingdom’s preparedness are its defense deals with Israel and the creation of an eastern defense zone.

With Mauritania, relations remain stable. However, since the election of Mohamed Ghazouani in 2019, Nouakchott has undertaken to expand its partnerships, first drawing closer to the United Arab Emirates, whose diplomatic aggressiveness is well known; this aggressivity is showcased through the provision of aid equivalent to half of Mauritania’s GDP and an increasingly apparent military cooperation. There was also the visit of an Iranian diplomatic leader to Nouakchott last February, where he arrived on board an Algerian airplane. President Ghazouani has somehow “Mauritanized” King Mohammed VI’s famous Riyadh speech…

The spirit of that famous royal speech was the necessity for Morocco to maintain its traditional alliances while opening up to new partners. Yet Mauritania’s perceived rapprochement with Emiratis and Iranians is not necessarily good news for Rabat.

On the second line of neighbors

Morocco’s neighboring countries, including those that do not necessarily share borders with the kingdom, have of late tended to be less friendly than they used to be. Tensions with France, for example, are now common knowledge and, more serious than the differences between states, it is now societies that are drifting apart (mistrust of Moroccans and indifference of the French).

The maintenance of strong economic relations certainly has historic significance, but nothing seems to indicate the future persistence of the “French exception” in Morocco. All indicators actually suggest the opposite, based on the cultural, academic, economic, and emotional aspects.

This is also the case with Tunisia, with the difference that the growing distance between Tunis and Rabat is much more the result of President Kais Saïed’s current policy than the consequence of a fundamental divergence between the two traditionally friendly countries.

However, Macron’s France Maghreb policy is heightening tensions between Rabat and Tunis, tensions born of the Tunisian president’s welcoming of the leader of the Polisario separatists, and consolidated by the pressure exerted by Algiers on Tunis through the budgetary aid that Tunisia’s strangled public finances need. Tunisia cannot refuse Algeria anything, and it is an open secret that the Algerian regime shares France’s hostility towards Morocco.

Then there is Senegal. Since the beginning of 2023, multiple visits of King Mohamed VI to Dakar have been postponed, sometimes for health reasons, and other times without any known reason. President Macky Sall, who is maneuvering to run for an (unconstitutional) third term, is supported by Emmanuel Macron’s France, which strategically needs to keep Senegal in its fold, especially after its hasty withdrawal from the Sahel.

A “Dakar-Paris axis” can only be achieved to the detriment of Morocco, which, after the installation of Wagner militias in Mali with the benevolent neutrality of Algiers, now has only the Senegalese route to ensure the continental extension it so vaunts to its non-African partners.

As such, Morocco finds itself in a double chokehold between these two lines of hostile, unfriendly, and even distrustful neighborhood lines. After a decade of consistent, assertive, and at time even aggressive diplomatic actions, Rabat seems to have closed itself off from its geographical environment, preferring to extend its scope further away, towards the Israeli-American axis on one hand, and Arab-Gulf axis on the other hand, and even further away toward Asia and Latin America.

Is this a carefully thought-out policy, in light of the current geological upheavals and changes in alliance lines? Or is it the result of misunderstandings between Rabat and Paris, the two capitals having an equal (diplomatic) presence in this region of the world, with each party developing its competitive influence for its own strategic interests? Only time will tell.

Strictly Personal

If I were put in charge of a $15m African kitty, I’d first deworm children, By Charles Onyango-Obbo

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One of my favourite stories on pan-African action (or in this case inaction), one I will never tire of repeating, comes from 2002, when the discredited Organisation of African Unity, was rebranded into an ambitious, new African Union (AU).

There were many big hitters in African statehouses then. Talking of those who have had the grace to step down or leave honourably after electoral or political defeat, or have departed, in Nigeria we had Olusegun Obasanjo, a force of nature. Cerebral and studious Thabo Mbeki was chief in South Africa. In Ethiopia, the brass-knuckled and searingly intellectual Meles Zenawi ruled the roost.

In Tanzania, there was the personable and thoughtful Ben Mkapa. In Botswana, there was Festus Mogae, a leader who had a way of bringing out the best in people. In Senegal, we had Abdoulaye Wade, fresh in office, and years before he went rogue.

And those are just a few.

This club of men (there were no women at the high table) brought forth the AU. At that time, there was a lot of frustration about the portrayal of Africa in international media, we decided we must “tell our own story” to the world. The AU, therefore, decided to boost the struggling Pan-African New Agency (Pana) network.

The members were asked to write cheques or pledges for it. There were millions of dollars offered by the South Africans and Nigerians of our continent. Then, as at every party, a disruptive guest made a play. Rwanda, then still roiled by the genocide against the Tutsi of 1994, offered the least money; a few tens of thousand dollars.

There were embarrassed looks all around. Some probably thought it should just have kept is mouth shut, and not made a fool of itself with its ka-money. Kigali sat unflustered. Maybe it knew something the rest didn’t.

The meeting ended, and everyone went their merry way. Pana sat and waited for the cheques to come. The big talkers didn’t walk the talk. Hardly any came, and in the sums that were pledged. Except one. The cheque from Rwanda came in the exact amount it was promised. The smallest pledge became Pana’s biggest payday.

The joke is that it was used to pay terminal benefits for Pana staff. They would have gone home empty-pocketed.

We revive this peculiarly African moment (many a deep-pocketed African will happily contribute $300 to your wedding but not 50 cents to build a school or set up a scholarship fund), to campaign for the creation of small and beautiful African things.

It was brought on by the announcement by South Korea that it had joined the African Summit bandwagon, and is shortly hosting a South Korea-Africa Summit — like the US, China, the UK, the European Union, Japan, India, Russia, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey do.

Apart from the AU, whose summits are in danger of turning into dubious talk shops, outside of limited regional bloc events, there is no Pan-African platform that brings the continent’s leaders together.

The AU summits are not a solutions enterprise, partly because over 60 percent of its budget is funded by non-African development partners. You can’t seriously say you are going to set up a $500 million African climate crisis fund in the hope that some Europeans will put up the money.

It’s possible to reprise the Rwanda-Pana pledge episode; a convention of African leaders and important institutions on the continent for a “Small Initiatives, Big Impact Compact”. It would be a barebones summit. In the first one, leaders would come to kickstart it by investing seed money.

The rule would be that no country would be allowed to put up more than $100,000 — far, far less than it costs some presidents and their delegations to attend one day of an AU summit.

There would also be no pledges. Everyone would come with a certified cheque that cannot bounce, or hard cash in a bag. After all, some of our leaders are no strangers to travelling around with sacks from which they hand out cash like they were sweets.

If 54 states (we will exempt the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic for special circumstances) contribute $75,000 each, that is a good $4.05 million.

If just 200 of the bigger pan-African institutions such as the African Development Bank, Afrexim Bank, the giant companies such as MTN, Safaricom, East African Breweries, Nedbank, De Beers, Dangote, Orascom in Egypt, Attijariwafa Bank in Morocco, to name a few, each ponied up $75,000 each, that’s a cool $15 million just for the first year alone.

There will be a lot of imagination necessary to create magic out of it all, no doubt, but if I were asked to manage the project, I would immediately offer one small, beautiful thing to do.

After putting aside money for reasonable expenses to be paid at the end (a man has to eat) — which would be posted on a public website like all other expenditures — I would set out on a programme to get the most needy African children a dose of deworming tablets. Would do it all over for a couple of years.

Impact? Big. I read that people who received two to three additional years of childhood deworming experience an increase of 14 percent in consumption expenditure, 13 percent in hourly earnings, and nine percent in non-agricultural work hours.

At the next convention, I would report back, and possibly dazzle with the names, and photographs, of all the children who got the treatment. Other than the shopping opportunity, the US-Africa Summit would have nothing on that.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3

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Strictly Personal

AU shouldn’t look on as outsiders treat Africa like a widow’s house, By Joachim Buwembo

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There is no shortage of news from the UK, a major former colonial master in Africa, over whose former empire the sun reputedly never set. We hope and pray that besides watching the Premier League, the managers of our economies are also monitoring the re-nationalisation of British Railways (BR).

 

Three decades after BR was privatised in the early to mid-nineties — around the season when Africa was hit by the privatisation fashion — there is emerging consensus by both conservative and liberal parties that it is time the major public transport system reverts to state management.

 

Yes, there are major services that should be rendered by the state, and the public must not be abandoned to the vagaries of purely profit-motivated capitalism. It is not enough to only argue that government is not good at doing business, because some business is government business.

 

Since we copied many of our systems from the British — including wigs for judges — we may as well copy the humility to accept if certain fashions don’t work.

 

Another piece of news from the UK, besides football, was of this conservative MP Tim Loughton, who caused a stir by getting summarily deported from Djibouti and claiming the small African country was just doing China’s bidding because he recently rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

 

China has dismissed the accusation as baseless, and Africa still respects China for not meddling in its politics, even as it negotiates economic partnerships. China generously co-funded the construction of Djibouti’s super modern multipurpose port.

 

What can African leaders learn from the Loughton Djibouti kerfuffle? The race to think for and manage Africa by outsiders is still on and attracting new players.

 

While China has described the Loughton accusation as lies, it shows that the accusing (and presumably informed) Britons suspect other powerful countries to be on a quest to influence African thinking and actions.

 

And while the new bidders for Africa’s resources are on the increase including Russia, the US, Middle Eastern newly rich states, and India, even declining powers like France, which is losing ground in West Africa, could be looking for weaker states to gain a new foothold.

 

My Ugandan people describe such a situation as treating a community like “like a widow’s house,” because the poor, defenceless woman is susceptible to having her door kicked open by any local bully. Yes, these small and weak countries are not insignificant and offer fertile ground for the indirect re-colonisation of the continent.

 

Djibouti, for example, may be small —at only 23,000square kilometres, with a population of one million doing hardly any farming, thus relying on imports for most of its food — but it is so strategically located that the African Union should look at it as precious territory that must be protected from external political influences.

 

It commands the southern entrance into the Red Sea, thus linking Africa to the Middle East. So if several foreign powers have military bases in Djibouti, why shouldn’t the AU, with its growing “peace kitty,” now be worth some hundreds of millions of dollars?

 

At a bilateral level, Ethiopia and Djibouti are doing impressively well in developing infrastructure such as the railway link, a whole 750 kilometres of it electrified. The AU should be looking at more such projects linking up the whole continent to increase internal trade with the continental market, the fastest growing in the world.

 

And, while at it, the AU should be resolutely pushing out fossil-fuel-based transportation the way Ethiopia is doing, without even making much noise about it. Ethiopia can be quite resolute in conceiving and implementing projects, and surely the AU, being headquartered in Addis Ababa, should be taking a leaf rather than looking on as external interests treat the continent like a Ugandan widow’s house.

 

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:buwembo@gmail.com

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