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Nigeria meets Q1 oil target, earns N1.8tn from export in March

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West African country, Nigeria earned a total of N1.8tn from oil export in March as it attained its crude oil production target of 1.6 million barrels per day for the month.

The revenue performance is three million over the February score which was 1.3 million, and January’s which was 1.25mbp.

By leaping 300,000 barrels per day in March, the country’s production jumped 9.3 million barrels in the period under review. Total production was 49,600,000 barrels.

In March, Nigeria’s Bonny Light sold for $78 per barrel, compared with Brent’s $77 per barrel. In other words, the country earned an extra N337bn for the month. In total, crude oil production generated about N1.8tn in revenue.

In December, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, at a recent World Bank Nigeria Development Update and Country Economic Memorandum, projected the country’s crude oil production to reach 1.6 million barrels per day by the first quarter of 2023.

Nigeria’s public finance is currently affected by dwindling oil prices, industrial-scale crude oil theft, and the high amount expended on fuel subsidies as Nigeria continues to grapple with an increasing debt burden.

According to the state enterprise, NNPC, about 700 million dollars worth of crude oil is lost to oil theft monthly. Between January and July 2022, Nigeria lost 10 billion Dollars which is equivalent to 4.3 trillion Naira— more than fifty percent of its foreign reserves.

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Angola’s draft budget estimates 1.65%/GDP deficit in 2025

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Draft budget documents show that Angola’s government expects a 1.65% GDP budget deficit in 2025, up from 1.46% this year.

According to finance ministry records on its website, Africa’s second-largest crude oil exporter’s 2025 budget is predicated on $70 per barrel of oil. Brent crude futures were around $74 per barrel on Friday.

In an interview with Reuters last week, Vera Daves de Sousa, the finance minister of Angola, stated that the southern African nation was under a lot of strain due to the possibility of declining oil prices.

Additionally, according to the draft budget, economic growth would pick up speed in the non-oil sectors, increasing from 3.3% this year to 4.1% next year.

According to the finance ministry, yearly inflation will drop from nearly 29% to 16.6% by the end of next year.

Last week, Daves de Sousa told Reuters that Angola was considering asking the International Monetary Fund for a funding program.

Its most current IMF program, worth $3.7 billion, was authorised in 2018 after the country’s earnings were severely damaged by the collapse of global petroleum prices.

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IMF predicts 4% Middle East, North Africa growth next year

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Middle East and North Africa growth would rebound to 4% next year if oil output curbs were phased out, and headwinds, including wars, subsided.

As geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns remain, the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook, launched in Dubai, predicts “sluggish” growth of 2.1% in 2024.

The IMF noted that risks to the outlook for the overall area, including the Caucasus and Central Asia, “remain tilted to the downside,” and called for an acceleration of structural reforms, notably in governance and labour markets, to raise chances for medium-term growth.

Jihad Azour, the IMF’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, said in an interview that the MENA growth estimate for 2024 has been revised downwards by 0.6% from April’s report, mainly due to the extension of the Israel-Hamas conflict and further extensions of OPEC+ voluntary oil production cuts.

He said the “good news” was that inflation was gradually being brought under control across the region. He predicted that the region would average the 3% goal rate in 2024, except for Egypt, Iran, and Sudan.

The outlook, however, differs significantly throughout the region. According to Azour, oil-exporting nations should be better equipped to handle such threats thanks to “strong” growth in the non-oil sector.

Non-oil growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has mostly outpaced overall growth despite lower oil prices and production this year, thanks to government-led investment programs that support domestic demand. The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman.

Oil importers from the Middle East and North Africa are still more susceptible to protracted hostilities and significant funding requirements.

“Even as these issues gradually abate, uncertainty remains high and structural gaps will likely hold back productivity growth in many economies over the forecast horizon,” the IMF report said.

Since January 2024, the IMF has authorised $13.4 billion in fresh investment for Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations, including initiatives in Jordan, Pakistan, and Egypt.

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