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In spite of depression woes, S’Africa’s banking system gets stable outlook

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It may not all be sad for news for South Africa’s economy which has just fallen into depression.

Moody’s has changed its outlook for the country’s banking system from negative to stable, the ratings agency said in a report issued on Tuesday.

In its report, Moody’s said the banks’ creditworthiness would remain resilient over the next 12 to 18 months, although they will face weakening operating conditions.

“Slow economic growth will hold back the banks’ new business and revenues,” the report read.

Economic growth is expected to remain weak given poor consumer spending, volatility in emerging market currencies as well as inflationary pressures. Moody’s recently cut the growth forecast for 2018 from 1.5% to between 0.7%.

Moody’s said SA bank credit risk profiles and problem loans would remain stable until the end of 2019. Capital is also expected to remain strong for the period. Further, funding and liquidity conditions will be stable.

However a challenging operating environment will suppress business opportunities and loan demand, exerting pressure on banks’ loan quality. Loan growth slowed to 2.1% in May 2018, compared to 2.5% in May 2017, according to Moody’s.

“We expect growth to remain subdued in 2018/19 because of weak demand, particularly as growth in mortgage loans has slowed. We also believe that banks have further tightened their lending criteria in response to the weak economy, which will further dampen loan growth by making it harder for borrowers to take on new credit,” Moody’s explained.

Read also: Nigeria may be headed for another recession as economy slows in Q2 2018

The lower loan growth is likely to impact net interest income. Increased costs for staff and digitalisation will also drag down net profitability, the report said.

Overall, earnings will be strained by slower revenue growth and higher operating expenses.

Although profitability has remained resilient, the low economic growth, rising competition from larger banks and fintechs could curb pricing power, and drive down revenue growth.

Moody’s expects return on assets and return on equity to come under pressure in 2018/19.

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Nigerian banks close over two million accounts

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At least two million bank accounts have been closed by different commercial banks in Nigeria following the failure of their owners to update and link them to the National Identity Number (NIN) and the Biometric Verification Number (BVN).

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, in December 2023, issued a directive to all commercial banks in the country to restrict Tier-1 accounts without proper BVN, and NIN, that are not linked by March 1st, 2024.

The move by the apex bank, was aimed at eradicating questionable accounts, particularly as some customers failed to comply with regulatory orders on the linkage of their accounts to the NIN, BVN and other requirements.

According to a statement on Wednesday by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), the decision to close the accounts was arrived at following the expiration of the CBN deadline.

The NIBSS also indicated that the number of inactive bank accounts grew month-on-month by four million or 2.0 percent to 19.7 million in March 2024 from 19.3 million in the previous month which necessitated a weeding of the process.

The NIBSS, however, indicated that the number of active bank accounts in the country grew by 6.62 million or 3.0 percent to 219.64 million from 213.02 million in February.

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Kenya: President Ruto assured of fresh IMF disbursement

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This would help the economy, which is getting better after avoiding a debt problem earlier this year.

Since the government released a $1.5 billion Eurobond in February, Kenya’s shilling has recovered from record lows. This was done to calm the market’s fears of a possible default on a $2 billion bond that matures in June.

The problems with the currency, high inflation, and new taxes meant to close budget gaps have all made living costs go up, which has led to anger and some protests.

Kenya has been able to get through a liquidity problem thanks to strong loans from the IMF and the World Bank. The East African country got an extra $941 million in loans from the IMF in January. This brought its total deal with the fund to $4.43 billion, with about $2.5 billion still due.

A source quoted by Reuters claimed the IMF officials would be in Kenya on May 9 for a review that would allow a $1 billion tranche to be released.

“That process is going on very well,” he said in the interview on Monday, adding that talks between the Kenyan minister of finance and the IMF in Washington during the World Bank/IMF spring meeting earlier this month were “extensive, very successful”. The IMF has not commented on the ongoing review.

Still, Ruto kept his promise to cut spending by 12% in the next fiscal year, from 4.2 trillion shillings to 3.7 trillion shillings.

It is expected that the budget deficit will go down from 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) this fiscal year to 3.9% of GDP in the 2024/25 fiscal year (17 July–June).

Earlier on Monday, Ruto and other African heads of state asked rich countries to lend record amounts to a low-interest World Bank facility for developing nations. They said that these countries were facing climate and debt problems that were getting worse.

“We want a fair international financial architecture,” Ruto said.

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