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Kenya’s central bank reviews 2023 GDP forecast downward. Here’s why

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Kenya’s central bank has reviewed its economic projection for the year. In its latest projection, the apex bank says the economy is expected to expand by 5.8% in 2023.

The new projection by the central bank is at a slower pace than the previous forecast of 6.1%. It claims it is a result of slower growth in the agricultural sector.

The Central Bank Governor, Patrick Njoroge made the new projection known at a news conference on Thursday, stressing that the East African powerhouse like other countries in the region, was emerging from the worst drought in four decades.

Njoroge revealed that its foreign exchange reserves, which stand at $6.4 billion, equivalent to 3.6 months of import cover, were expected to rise by $1.4 billion by the end of April, with further assistance from the IMF by the end of June.

The government has had to extend credit periods for essential imports such as petrol due to a lack of a vibrant interbank foreign exchange market.

Njoroge said the return of interbank trade over the past two weeks had smoothed out volatility in the shilling exchange rate.

“So, yes, the journey has started and already you can see a positive outcome in terms of the … reactivation of the interbank market.

“We scaled down agricultural growth which has brought down our projection for overall growth in 2023”, he said.

Kenya’s inflation rate is still above the government’s preferred range of 2.5% to 7.5%. The country’s statistics office revealed recently that the inflation rate rose to 9.2% year-on-year in February from 9.0% a month earlier, largely driven by food and transport prices.

As part of moves to manage the rising inflation, the central bank on Wednesday raised its benchmark lending rate to 9.50% from 8.75%, and said there was room for further tightening of monetary policy in anticipation of higher inflation.

The country has also witnessed recent unrest following protests led by opposition figure, Raila Odinga, over the growing cost of living in the country.

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VenturesNow

Nigerian banks close over two million accounts

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At least two million bank accounts have been closed by different commercial banks in Nigeria following the failure of their owners to update and link them to the National Identity Number (NIN) and the Biometric Verification Number (BVN).

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, in December 2023, issued a directive to all commercial banks in the country to restrict Tier-1 accounts without proper BVN, and NIN, that are not linked by March 1st, 2024.

The move by the apex bank, was aimed at eradicating questionable accounts, particularly as some customers failed to comply with regulatory orders on the linkage of their accounts to the NIN, BVN and other requirements.

According to a statement on Wednesday by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), the decision to close the accounts was arrived at following the expiration of the CBN deadline.

The NIBSS also indicated that the number of inactive bank accounts grew month-on-month by four million or 2.0 percent to 19.7 million in March 2024 from 19.3 million in the previous month which necessitated a weeding of the process.

The NIBSS, however, indicated that the number of active bank accounts in the country grew by 6.62 million or 3.0 percent to 219.64 million from 213.02 million in February.

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Kenya: President Ruto assured of fresh IMF disbursement

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This would help the economy, which is getting better after avoiding a debt problem earlier this year.

Since the government released a $1.5 billion Eurobond in February, Kenya’s shilling has recovered from record lows. This was done to calm the market’s fears of a possible default on a $2 billion bond that matures in June.

The problems with the currency, high inflation, and new taxes meant to close budget gaps have all made living costs go up, which has led to anger and some protests.

Kenya has been able to get through a liquidity problem thanks to strong loans from the IMF and the World Bank. The East African country got an extra $941 million in loans from the IMF in January. This brought its total deal with the fund to $4.43 billion, with about $2.5 billion still due.

A source quoted by Reuters claimed the IMF officials would be in Kenya on May 9 for a review that would allow a $1 billion tranche to be released.

“That process is going on very well,” he said in the interview on Monday, adding that talks between the Kenyan minister of finance and the IMF in Washington during the World Bank/IMF spring meeting earlier this month were “extensive, very successful”. The IMF has not commented on the ongoing review.

Still, Ruto kept his promise to cut spending by 12% in the next fiscal year, from 4.2 trillion shillings to 3.7 trillion shillings.

It is expected that the budget deficit will go down from 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) this fiscal year to 3.9% of GDP in the 2024/25 fiscal year (17 July–June).

Earlier on Monday, Ruto and other African heads of state asked rich countries to lend record amounts to a low-interest World Bank facility for developing nations. They said that these countries were facing climate and debt problems that were getting worse.

“We want a fair international financial architecture,” Ruto said.

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