Nigeria is due for another general election in less than 24 hours as President Muhammadu Buhari, who has been in office since 2015 will be completing his second term of four years.

The 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria are expected to be a close contest between Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and dark-horse Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Another candidate with enough spoiler feature is Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Democratic Party (NNDP)

The Good

One thing Nigerians can take solace from is that the four leading candidates have antecedents that suggest a better understanding of the macroeconomy. The ruling party’s candidate, Bola Tinubu has a background in accounting and managed to run Nigeria’s commercial capital in the not-too-good early years of the current democratic dispensation. One of the biggest feats attributed to his time as governor of   Lagos state was increasing the internally generated revenue (IGR) of Lagos State from N600 million monthly in 1999 when he became governor to N6 billion monthly by the end of his tenure in 2007.

For Atiku Abubakar who is a former Vice President and serial presidential contestant, it is expected that his successful venture as a businessman and an active role in economic management as Nigeria’s Vice President between 1999 – 2007, a period which the West African country scored its highest economic growth goal. In the eight years as civilian president, growth moved from 0.58 to 6.59 percent, a 6.01 percentage point rise and the third-best since independence.

Mr. Peter Obi formally of Atiku’s PDP left the party last year to create a movement now known as “Obidient”. Obi, like Tinubu, is a two-term ex-governor whose record in public service has also been widely commended. Under Peter Obi, Anambra State launched Sub-Sovereign Wealth Savings, the first of its type in Sub-Saharan Africa, making it the first state in Nigeria to do so. He also claimed that he left Anambra State with investments worth $500 million in both local and foreign cash. This includes $156 million in bonds denominated in dollars at a period when many other governors were leaving enormous debts.

Musa Kwankwaso is another former governor in Nigeria’s presidential race. His records in public service as executive governor and former Senator is also not under the radar. Governor Kwankwaso has landmark achievements in critical sectors of education, healthcare, agriculture, and the overall development of vital infrastructure. Education in particular was a major focus of the government’s activities. Another area accorded greater attention was the construction of urban and township roads, especially the long, magnificent flyovers and subways intended to ease unprecedented traffic congestion on the ever-busy streets of metropolitan Kano.

Bearing in mind the over 20 million out-of-school children in Nigeria, Kwankwanso’s bias to revolutionize Nigeria’s education sector is apt as that is capable of significantly affecting other sectors like security as basic education would reduce the number of possibilities of recruiting for terrorism from the ignorant army of unschooled children and young adult.

The bad and the chances

Each frontline candidate comes with its baggage although the burdens outways each other. It is shameful yet factual to say that corruption is an almost inseparable character of Nigeria’s public service. It is endemic enough to be the major campaign promise of the outgoing President Muhammad Buhari. But how much has changed after eight years?

Beyond the personal baggage of links with drug trafficking in the US, allegations of questionable wealth accumulation, and state capture against Mr. Tinubu, he also has the hurdle of convincing Nigerians about his party’s performance under Buhari. While the administration has consistently rated itself high, it is not likely that many Nigerians have been impressed, so high has been the hurdle that Tinubu rarely ever acknowledges President Buhari’s “performances” at the height of the campaign.

But Tinubu’s chances are perhaps the brightest as his party, the APC remains the largest in Nigeria’s federation. Out if Nigeria’s 36 states, Tinubu’s APC controls 22 and he boasts support from all and even beyond his party as some disgruntled governors from Atiku’s PDP like Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Nyesom Wike of Rivers state are said to be supporting the Tinubu candidacy.

The choice of Tinubu’s running mate, Kashim Shettima has divided opinions being a practicing Muslim like Tinubu himself. The same-faith candidacy has taken drawn outcry and applause from quarters. The strength of the team is that Kashim, an ex-governor from Borno State, Northern Nigeria is the largest voting bloc in the country.

Like Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar is a candidate well-decorated with decorated with corruption allegations. He has been fingered for sharp practices in many scandals, including the internationally pronounced Halliburton bribery case

Another factor against Atiku’s chances is, outside the subdued reach of his party PDP as a result of ruling APC dominance, the cracks within the PDP notably the defiance team of G-5 governors led by Governor Nyesome Wike might also count against him.

But being a serial contestant in the race has to count for something for Atiku, particularly against first-timers. Besides, he is northern …